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International Series 2024


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Carolina Panthers confirmed in Munich, and we get an NFL Tram to boot. 

 

33571819-mit-dem-schriftzug-national-football-league-sowie-dem-logo-der-liga-wird-die-nfl-tram-im-ja-rch-muenchen-fahren-sie-soll-vorfreude-auf-das-2XR5JpwYCy70.jpg.1c99681d6d1954bdd7750d2200315f46.jpg

 

Run this through Google Translate if you are so inclined:

 

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/nfl-muenchen-2024-carolina-panthers-infos-1.6331482

 

Bengals have an away game @Carolina, so who knows?  Maybe we end up playing in my backyard. 

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  • 1 month later...

I could give my reasons, but I'll just cut to the chase.... here are my predictions for the five 2024 international games:

 

Wembley:  Jets at Jaguars
Spurs:    Rams at Bears / Texans at Vikings
Allianz (Munich): Bengals at Panthers
Sau Paulo Brazil:  Current Browns at Eagles

 

I'm probably wrong.  I always am.

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4 hours ago, AmishBengalFan said:

I could give my reasons, but I'll just cut to the chase.... here are my predictions for the five 2024 international games:

 

Wembley:  Jets at Jaguars
Spurs:    Rams at Bears / Texans at Vikings
Allianz (Munich): Bengals at Panthers
Sau Paulo Brazil:  Browns at Eagles

 

I'm probably wrong.  I always am.

Well alot of Nati heritage was German.

( Hence alot of German breweries)

 

That said I doubt any young German knows anything about the past as well as Cincinnati..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, claptonrocks said:

Well alot of Nati heritage was German.

 

... Indeed, Cincinnati was to Germans what Boston was to Irish.

 

Chicago later stole it's 'thunder', but there was a time when Cincinnati was projected to be one of the US's largest cities. 

 

Nun zurück zum Fußball mit den Händen 🏈

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I find no direct flights from CVG to MUC, but the four least-inconvenient ones I've found (assuming travel in late October, departing on a Wed and returning 6 days later):

 

United to ORD, 51m layover, Lufthansa to MUC

Air Canada to YYZ, 3h layover, Lufthansa to MUC

United to EWR, 53m layover, United to MUC

United to IAD, 1h6m layover, United to MUC

 

Of the 4, I would prefer the longer layover in Toronto, if only to have a better chance of making a connection that likely involves changing terminals and passing thru Security a 2nd time (ORD, EWR and YYZ guaranteed, IAD likely).  Plus the YYZ connection lands at 10am, the others at 7am.  Much easier to check into your hotel room after a long-ass flight when you get to the front desk at noon rather than 9am.  Trust me, even with my hotel "status" and early check-in guarantees, showing up in London mid-morning on both prior NFL trips meant a significant wait for my room.  A noon show-up would've meant avoiding that wait.  I presume MUC would be similar.

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Rationale for my predictions:

 

My assumptions are:
1 - Except for JAX, no team will play TWO international games.
2 - If JAX plays two, they will be back-to-back and BOTH must be in London (like 2023)
3 - Divisional games are not desired (though they have happened)
4 - Cross-conference games are desired as they don't impact tiebreakers as much.
5 - Games against a team's previously-unscheduled "Game 17" opponent are highly desired as the visitor still plays 8 domestic road games, including every team already on their schedule due to rotation.
6 - NFC hosts against PIT and AFC hosts against GBP or DAL are unlikely (those home teams likely want the extra revenue that the visiting bandwagon will bring, and they only get one shot at that money every 8 seasons).

 

Here are the 'home' games each of the locked-in International Series teams will play:

JAX: HOU IND TEN NEP NYJ CFT GBP MIN
CHI: DET GBP MIN LAR SEA CAR JAX TEN NEP
MIN: CHI DET GBP ARI SFF ATL HOU IND NYJ
CAR: ATL NOS TBB DAL NYG ARI KCC LAC CIN
PHI: DAL NYG WAS ATL CAR GBP CFT PIT JAX

 

The first three are division opponents
The next three are conference opponents
The next two are cross-conference opponents (desired under assumption 4)  These are ITALIC
The ninth one (if there is one) is the "Game 17" opponent (highly desired under assmuption 5)  These are UNDERLINED

 

If we throw out CHI/MIN/CAR/PHI as a visiting international team (assumption 1), non-London JAX-as-a-visitor (assumption 2), division opponents (assumption 3), and NFC/PIT AFC/GBP/DAL (assumption 6), we're left with:

 

JAX: --- --- --- NEP NYJ CFT --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX TEN NEP
MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF ATL HOU IND NYJ
CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI KCC LAC CIN
PHI: --- --- --- ATL --- GBP CFT --- ---

 

The following teams played Internationally last year - I see no way they'll go again this year:
NEP KCC BAL ATL MIA TEN IND BUF (I've taken JAX off this list, for obvious reasons)

 

We now have:

JAX: --- --- --- --- NYJ CFT --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF --- HOU --- NYJ
CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI --- LAC CIN
PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP CFT --- ---

 

With PHI going to Brazil, I see that as ideal for an NFC v AFC game, so they get CFT.  And that leaves NYJ as the only team JAX can host.

We now have

 

JAX: --- --- --- --- NYJ --- --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF --- HOU --- ---
CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI --- LAC CIN
PHI: --- --- --- --- --- --- CFT --- ---

 

The only AFC opponents for CAR are LAC and CIN.  LAC would fly from West Coast, CIN is a desired "Game 17" opponent.  That one seems simple.  MIN can host HOU (AFC, preferred) or an NFC team from the West.  That one also seems simple.

We're left with:

 

JAX: --- --- --- --- NYJ --- --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
MIN: --- --- --- --- --- --- HOU --- ---
CAR: --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- CIN
PHI: --- --- --- --- --- --- CFT --- ---

 

I know JAX *could* play CHI and get the back-to-back London games like in 2023. But LAR haven't played Internationally since 2019 (SEA was 2022), so even though it might make more sense for CHI to draw JAX (AFC), my guts tell me the NFL would prefer the higher-profile Rams in London.

This makes the games:

 

Wembley: Jets at Jaguars
Spurs:  Rams at Bears / Texans at Vikings
Allianz (Munich): Bengals at Panthers
Sau Paulo Brazil: Current Browns at Eagles

 

Of course, Jags at Bears (Spurs) would be okay too.

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For the record, here are the last international dates for all 32 teams:

2023: ATL BAL BUF IND JAX KCC MIA NEP TEN

2022: ARI DEN GBP MIN NOS NYG SFF SEA TBB

2021: NYJ

2020: ---

2019: CAR CHI CIN HOU LAC LAR LVR

2018: PHI

2017: CFT

2016: WAS

2015: DET

2014: DAL

2013: PIT

 

Another way of looking at the JAX/PHI opponents is that at least one of NYJ/GBP will be tapped, as CFT can't play in both games.  NYJ hasn't been in 3 seasons, GBP went 2 seasons ago, so for "fairness" that makes more sense, which only reiterates CFT playing at PHI (in Brazil).  Of course, the league could decide to throw divisional balance out the window and have PHI play an NFC-E opponent, or fill Tottenham stadium with back-to-back NFC-N games, or something equally as stupid.  But unless there are some behind-the-scene deals being made (which I don't for a moment doubt there are), the parings I have settled upon seem to make the most sense.... which is why I'm certain they're all wrong.  :)

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  • 3 weeks later...

Current "acknowledged" processing time from the State Department for issuance of new Passports is 6-8 weeks.  Experience has shown that they under-estimate fairly regularly to avoid looking like total schmucks, and to generate extra revenue when people freak out and pay for last-minute "expedited" service.

 

Realisitically, once your application is completed, your photo taken, and everything is double-checked and paid-for at your local full-service Post Office, you should get your Passport within 9-12 weeks.  Possibly sooner, but generally not.

 

Nerdwallet recommends applying no less than 6 months before you need it, as they're reporting that State is "warning of massive delays".  State is recommending submitting the paperwork three months before you need the Passport, which by the +50% rule, means 4-1/2 months, minimum.

 

If the game is in late October and you believe State, with the +50%, then you should apply by early June.  If you don't believe State, you should apply by mid April..... or, to put it another way.... immediately.

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CFT-PHI will not be in Brazil.

Screenshot_20240327_082009_X.jpg

 

This makes GBP-PHI the leading candidate for Brazil, assuming no intra-divisional game and no team traveling in consecutive seasons.

 

I'll redo the full analysis today, and I expect there will be some impact to the other International pairings, but I don't think this affects the likelihood of CIN-CAR significantly.

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Of course the term "Season Opener" here could mean the first Friday Night game of the season, not necessarily the first game of the entire season.  But even if that were the case and this game were mid-season, I doubt the league would make teams fly to Brazil for a Friday game, taking two days' rest off the table in a game the NFL wants to use to showcase their product and expand into a new market.  The only way I see CFT-PHI as still being Brazil is if both got a bye the week prior.... long but not impossible odds.

 

In spite of all of that, I view this announcement as taking CFT-PHI out of Brazil and will find new International pairings as a result.

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Hold the presses!  I just stumbled across this!

 

Linky: https://sports.yahoo.com/either-packers-browns-play-eagles-175114816.html

 

"Either Packers or Browns will play Eagles in Brazil for Week 1 of 2024 season


Zach Kruse
Tue, Mar 26, 2024"

 

So, PHI is opening their season in Brazil, and based on the earlier tweet they're playing CFT.  And since it's Week One, no "loss of rest" issues since neither have a game before and both will have 2 extra days after.

 

So CFT-PHI looks close to a lock if the leak is accurate.

 

 

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Okay, let's take this from the top:

 

My assumptions are:
1 - Except for JAX, no team will play TWO international games.
2 - If JAX plays two, they will be back-to-back and BOTH must be in London (like 2023)
3 - Divisional games are not desired (though they have happened)
4 - Cross-conference games are desired as they don't impact tiebreakers as much.
5 - Games against a team's previously-unscheduled "Game 17" opponent are highly desired as the visitor still plays 8 domestic road games, including every team already on their schedule due to rotation.
6 - NFC hosts against PIT and AFC hosts against GBP or DAL are unlikely (those home teams likely want the extra revenue that the visiting bandwagon will bring, and they only get one shot at that money every 8 seasons).

 

Here are the 'home' games each of the locked-in International Series teams will play:

JAX: HOU IND TEN NEP NYJ CFT GBP MIN
CHI: DET GBP MIN LAR SEA CAR JAX TEN NEP
MIN: CHI DET GBP ARI SFF ATL HOU IND NYJ
CAR: ATL NOS TBB DAL NYG ARI KCC LAC CIN
PHI: DAL NYG WAS ATL CAR GBP CFT PIT JAX

 

The first three are division opponents
The next three are conference opponents
The next two are cross-conference opponents (desired under assumption 4)  These are ITALIC
The ninth one (if there is one) is the "Game 17" opponent (highly desired under assmuption 5)  These are UNDERLINED

 

If we throw out CHI/MIN/CAR/PHI as a visiting international team (assumption 1), non-London JAX-as-a-visitor (assumption 2), division opponents (assumption 3), and NFC/PIT AFC/GBP/DAL (assumption 6), we're left with:

 

JAX: --- --- --- NEP NYJ CFT --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX TEN NEP
MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF ATL HOU IND NYJ
CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI KCC LAC CIN
PHI: --- --- --- ATL --- GBP CFT --- ---

 

The following teams played Internationally last year - I see no way they'll go again this year:
NEP KCC BAL ATL MIA TEN IND BUF (I've taken JAX off this list, for obvious reasons)

 

We now have:

JAX: --- --- --- --- NYJ CFT --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF --- HOU --- NYJ
CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI --- LAC CIN
PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP CFT --- ---

 

With GBP-PHI confirmed for Brazil, we have:

 

JAX: --- --- --- --- NYJ CFT --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF --- HOU --- NYJ
CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI --- LAC CIN
PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP --- --- ---

 

JAX has only two opponents on the board, NYJ and CFT.  NYJ is also a highly-preferred opponent for MIN's game.  Frankly, with CFT (2017) not having played overseas for 4 years longer than the last NYJ trip (2021), I view CFT-JAX as a more likely paring than NYJ-JAX, which still leaves NYJ available for MIN.

 

JAX: --- --- --- --- --- CFT --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF --- HOU --- NYJ
CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI --- LAC CIN
PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP --- --- ---

 

This leaves CAR's situaton unchanged from before.  Their only AFC opponents are LAC/CIN, LAC is flying from the West Cost while CIN is a desired "Game 17" opponent, so again it looks like CIN-CAR makes the most sense,  MIN can host either HOU or NYJ...  HOU hasn't been since 2019, NYJ in 2021, so HOU now seems re-confirmed as MIN's most likely opponent.

 

JAX: --- --- --- --- --- CFT --- ---
CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
MIN: --- --- --- --- --- --- HOU --- ---
CAR: --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- CIN
PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP --- --- ---

 

And as before, I know JAX *could* play CHI and get the back-to-back London games like in 2023. But LAR haven't played Internationally since 2019 (SEA was 2022), so even though it might make more sense for CHI to draw JAX (AFC), my guts tell me the NFL would prefer the higher-profile Rams in London.

 

This makes the games:

 

Wembley: Current Browns at Jaguars
Spurs:  Rams at Bears / Texans at Vikings
Allianz (Munich): Bengals at Panthers
Sau Paulo Brazil: Packers at Eagles

 

Of course, Jags at Bears (Spurs) or Jets at Vikings (Wembley) would all make sense too.

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