My Draft Strategy

[PatternMaster]

If I were a GM of a NFL franchise I would prioritize my draft board based on the following:

 

• Rounds 1 and 2 would be players that have a mix of high levels of production and athletic potential, as these are the players that most likely to have success in the NFL. 
• Rounds 3 and 4 would be players that have a high level of production over athletic potential, as I feel that production trumps athletic potential and this is proven by HOF players who are marginal athletes but are football savants and know how to play the game at a high level. There are plenty of great athletes that can't play football. 
• Rounds 5-7 would be freak athletes that need to be coached up, basically taking a flyer on these guys to see if you can develop them.

 

My overall draft strategy would prioritize production over athletic ability as production is the best way to determine if someone will be successful at the NFL level. Too often teams fall in love with an athletic freak that didn't produce at a high-level college and it doesn't work out in the NFL. 

 

I would love to hear your draft strategy if you were running an NFL draft as a GM/Director of Personnel. 

[Cricket]

I would visit go-bengals.com on a regular basis and formulate each year’s draft strategy based on posts made there. 😎

[sparky151]

First, I'd try to go into the draft with no gaping holes in the starting lineup. The Bengals currently have 1 at NT with Reader gone and Tupou not under contract. But even if Reader had re-signed, we'd still have a question mark at the position. So I'd have added a mid-priced proven veteran run stopper. Ashawn Robinson would have been my preference as he's strong and hard to move and signed with the Panthers for 8 mil per. But other than NT, the Bengals did a good job of covering our bases, with the additions of Moss, Gesicki, Stone, Bell, and Rankins. I'd imagine we re-sign Max Scharping, Markus Bailey, and Josh Tupou before the draft as they don't seem to have interest from other teams.

 

Then it's on to the draft. Our goal would be to come away with the collection of players that improve the team the most. It's not necessarily BPA but rather MVA, most value added. Our biggest short term need is at NT but there aren't any NTs in this draft class who would be worth pick 18. I don't mind trading up for specific players who would improve the team a lot. I'd also be open to trading down for fair value depending on what our new player options would look like.

 

Do the evaluations, then be true to your board. Don't get desperate, in fact take advantage of desperate teams. If we'd traded the Murphy pick from last year when 3 teams were desperately trying to trade up for Will Levis, we could have had Dawand Jones, Darnell Washington, and pick 38 this year. That would be nice to have the RT position resolved plus an early second rounder this draft. Keep positional value in mind. The Bengals are set at QB, so that gives us a leg up in drafting on at least a quarter of the league. 

[dex]

If you are lucky enough to have a franchise QB, the 1st round pick should almost always be either an offensive or defensive linemen. Almost every Pro Bowl caliber linemen, especially O/D tackles, were taken in the 1st round. Even more so if you are lucky enough to have an early to mid 1st rounder. The trenches are where you find the most value.  Meanwhile there are plenty of Pro Bowl caliber WRs/TEs/RBs/LBs/safeties that were drafted in later rounds. 

 

So bottom line, the Bengals at 18 should either take Murphy or an offensive lineman of equal or greater value. I don't care what skill position guy happens to slide.

[sparky151]

If we could get Quinyon Mitchell at 18, he'd be a good pick. It would strengthen our CB group considerably. Currently we have below average CB1 and 2s while our above average CB3 is going into the final year of his contract. Mitchell would be an example of a big value add. 

[|High School Harry|]

Would not mind and nor be surprised if they used one of the extra third round picks,

ie the freebee they got for renting out Vonn Bell for a year, to trade up in round two for a juicy slider

who is higher in the round,.

I just do not want to see a wide receiver taken until Round three at the highest.

[|BlackJesus|]

10 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

ie the freebee they got for renting out Vonn Bell for a year, to trade up in round two for a juicy slider

who is higher in the round,.

 

If the Bengals don't take an RT in RD 1, then it becomes imperative to get Patrick Paul in my view, even if it means trading up in Rd 2. 

[dex]

16 hours ago, sparky151 said:

If we could get Quinyon Mitchell at 18, he'd be a good pick. It would strengthen our CB group considerably. Currently we have below average CB1 and 2s while our above average CB3 is going into the final year of his contract. Mitchell would be an example of a big value add. 

If Mitchell is somehow still available at pick 17, I think the Jags will probably take him. They have a real CB need. It might be the only position that would keep them from trading down several picks (as they did in the last draft) so that a team can jump in front of the Bengals to take a sliding lineman.

[sparky151]

Yes, I don't expect Q Mitchell or Terrion Arnold to be on the board at 18. But if they or Bowers are there, we should have a plan for what to do after grabbing them. Adding a true CB1 would go a long way to beating the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

[dex]

25 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Yes, I don't expect Q Mitchell or Terrion Arnold to be on the board at 18. But if they or Bowers are there, we should have a plan for what to do after grabbing them. Adding a true CB1 would go a long way to beating the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

A healthy Taylor-Britt is a CB1 in my book. He finished his rookie season strong and began last season very strong. I thought CTB and Hendrickson were the team's top defensive players for a large part of the season. Too many others had down years. CTB has to stay healthy though.

[texbengal]

Could see a CB at 18 if Arnold or Mitchell is available... but guess it depends on who else is there at DT (Murphy) and T. But Michell especially looks like the real deal. 
 

And then there's the Dax Hill piece... if they go CB, that gives an indication of where they see Dax playing... is he a S who just got overwhelmed at times last year? Or if they don't go CB, do they see Dax there - either as the nickel starter in waiting - maybe his best spot - or maybe as an outside corner. And if so, do they see DJ Turner as a starter, or is CB2 up for grabs? 

[sparky151]

I'd guess the plan is for Dax to succeed Hilton. He played in the slot a lot in college. 

 

But the idea that CTB is a top corner is silly. Peter Schrager predicted a breakout for him before last season so perhaps people are anchoring on that.

 

The PFF rankings of our CBs for last year were Hilton at 18,  CTB at 62, and Turner at 109. Chido was 72. That's a very poor group of outside corners. 

 

 

[claptonrocks]

9 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

I'd guess the plan is for Dax to succeed Hilton. He played in the slot a lot in college. 

 

But the idea that CTB is a top corner is silly. Peter Schrager predicted a breakout for him before last season so perhaps people are anchoring on that.

 

The PFF rankings of our CBs for last year were Hilton at 18,  CTB at 62, and Turner at 109. Chido was 72. That's a very poor group of outside corners. 

 

 

Great Points on the CBs..

 

[claptonrocks]

After reading the comments here

Im more confused who the Top 2 picks will be than ever...😊

All good scenarios.

 

[dex]

2 hours ago, sparky151 said:

 

 

But the idea that CTB is a top corner is silly. Peter Schrager predicted a breakout for him before last season so perhaps people are anchoring on that.

 

 

 

 

It wasn't in the preseason that Schrager was heaping praise on Taylor-Britt for his potential, it was in early November (obviously when CTB was still healthy) for his actual play after a big chunk of the reg season was over. The date of this tweet is Nov 5th:

 

 

[sparky151]

Back in the preseason last year, the NFLN had a segment on who would be breakout players for 2023. Schrager was touting CTB even then. Cam would make a high quality CB2 if he stays healthy and available. But he's at best an average CB1 when healthy. Someone like Quinyon Mitchell has a much higher ceiling than Cam. 

[|High School Harry|]

10 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Back in the preseason last year, the NFLN had a segment on who would be breakout players for 2023. Schrager was touting CTB even then. Cam would make a high quality CB2 if he stays healthy and available. But he's at best an average CB1 when healthy. Someone like Quinyon Mitchell has a much higher ceiling than Cam. 

and won't be there

[sparky151]

Probably not but he or Bowers would be an example of a quality player worth taking at 18 over a RT or DT.