AmishBengalFan Posted December 30, 2010 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2010 If we use today's line as a guide, here's how the other teams that are "in the mix" are favored to fare this weekend: 2 DEN-x (4-11) [0.508] - Loses to San Diego 4 BUF-x (4-11) [0.583] - Loses to NY Jets 5 ARI-x (5-10) [0.458] - Loses to San Francisco 6 SF-x (5-10) [0.492] - Beats Arizona 7 DAL-x (5-10) [0.521] - Beats Philadelphia 8 HOU-x (5-10) [0.525] - Loses to Jacksonville 9 DET-x (5-10) [0.55] - Beats Minnesota 10 CLE-x (5-10) [0.575]- Loses to Pittsburgh And the other games of note: San Diego BEATS Denver Indianapolis BEATS Tennessee Kansas City BEATS Oakland Jacksonville BEATS Houston So the "scrum" looks like this BEFORE we consider our result vs Baltimore: 2 DEN-x (4-12) - will pick ahead of us if tied 3 BUF-x (4-12) - will pick behind us if tied IF SDC+IND < KCC+JAX+1 4 CIN-x (4-11) 5 ARI-x (5-11) - will pick ahead of us if tied 6 HOU-x (5-11) - will pick ahead of us if tied 7 CLE-x (5-11) - will pick behind us if tied IF SDC+IND < KCC+JAX+1 8 SF-x (6-10) - will pick ahead of us if tied 9 DAL-x (6-10) - will pick ahead of us if tied 10 DET-x (6-10)- will pick ahead of us if tied If we lose to Baltimore: 2 DEN-x (4-12) - will pick ahead of us if tied 3 CIN-x (4-12) 4 BUF-x (4-12) - will pick behind us if tied IF SDC+IND < KCC+JAX+1 (2<3) If we defeat Baltimore: 4 ARI-x (5-11) - will pick ahead of us if tied 5 HOU-x (5-11) - will pick ahead of us if tied 6 CIN-x (5-11) 7 CLE-x (5-11) - will pick behind us if tied IF SDC+IND < KCC+JAX+1 (2<3) So the most likely result is that a loss will slot us as #3, while a win would drop us to #6 or #7, depending on whether Philly REALLY mails-in their meaningless game against Dallas or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalRep85-9 Posted January 2, 2011 Report Share Posted January 2, 2011 So we will pick either 2, 3, or 4. I don't really follow this : SDC+IND < KCC+JAX+1 (2<3) KC has already lost so what does that add (or subtract) from the equation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bengalbutch Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 We pick 4th in the draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|Tigers Johnson| Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='bengalbutch' timestamp='1294015202' post='956600'] We pick 4th in the draft [/quote] Where did you get that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalRep85-9 Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 I googled it and found the same thing. Denver - 2 Buffalo - 3 Cincinnati - 4 Guess our SOS was higher than theirs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bengaled Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 buffalo must have squeaked ahead (really behind) us in SOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bengaled Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='BengalRep85-9' timestamp='1294016161' post='956609'] I googled it and found the same thing. Denver - 2 Buffalo - 3 Cincinnati - 4 Guess our SOS was higher than theirs [/quote] so we should rotate and get the 34th overall pick in the 2nd round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tigre Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='bengalbutch' timestamp='1294015202' post='956600'] We pick 4th in the draft [/quote] If there is a draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|Tigers Johnson| Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Le Tigre' timestamp='1294016371' post='956614'] If there is a draft. [/quote] The draft is guaranteed... Nothing after that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalRep85-9 Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='bengaled' timestamp='1294016326' post='956613'] so we should rotate and get the 34th overall pick in the 2nd round. [/quote] Precisely. As long as the new CBA keeps the draft the same. 2 picks in the top 34 isn't bad at all. SHOULD get 2 impact players with those high picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBR Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='BengalRep85-9' timestamp='1294016161' post='956609'] I googled it and found the same thing. Denver - 2 Buffalo - 3 Cincinnati - 4 Guess our SOS was higher than theirs [/quote] Looks that way. From earlier in the thread: [quote] Week 17: CIN = SDC (vs DEN) + IND (vs TEN) BUF = KCC (vs OAK) + JAX (vs HOU) + 1 Game Explanation: Replace SDC, IND, KCC and JAX with "1" if they win, "0" if they lose, or "1/2" if they somehow tie. Whichever line (CIN or BUF) finishes highest will finish with a better SoS and will LOSE any draft order tiebreaker. If both lines finish even, there will be a coin flip during the offseason to break the tie. In simple terms: If JAX wins the AFC South (they win and IND loses to TEN) BUF clinches the SoS tiebreaker over us, giving us the edge. [/quote] Guess it ended up as: CIN = 1 + 1 = 2 BUF = 0 + 0 + 1 = 1 Since 2 > 1, they go first in the 1st round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tigre Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Tigers Johnson' timestamp='1294016426' post='956616'] The draft is guaranteed... Nothing after that is... [/quote] How can a draft go on...when it is only allowed by a collective bargaining agreement? And that collective bargaining agreement has expired, with no new one in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrlnutz Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Le Tigre' timestamp='1294017190' post='956623'] How can a draft go on...when it is only allowed by a collective bargaining agreement? And that collective bargaining agreement has expired, with no new one in place? [/quote] I'm sure someone can find the supporting articles but it has been said many times that the Draft will happen regardless of the CBA standing at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalRep85-9 Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 Any rumors or ideas who denver or buffalo likes? It's very early in the process but it never hurts to speculate!! I'm assuming Carolina takes Luck if he comes out, if he doesn't that changes everything. I personally like Fairley, dude looks like a BEAST. Bowers is high up there too but I like Dunlap and MJ starting at DE. I don't think Fairley is a NT in a 3-4 which denver runs, not sure what Buffalo runs. Anyway, predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|Tigers Johnson| Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='BengalRep85-9' timestamp='1294017476' post='956628'] Any rumors or ideas who denver or buffalo likes? It's very early in the process but it never hurts to speculate!! I'm assuming Carolina takes Luck if he comes out, if he doesn't that changes everything. I personally like Fairley, dude looks like a BEAST. Bowers is high up there too but I like Dunlap and MJ starting at DE. I don't think Fairley is a NT in a 3-4 which denver runs, not sure what Buffalo runs. Anyway, predictions? [/quote] I would bet(assuming these guys come out)... 1. Panthers = Andrew Luck 2. Broncos = A.J. Green 3. Bills = Next Best QB 4. Bengals Daquan Bowers ....or maybe that is me being hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBR Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Le Tigre' timestamp='1294017190' post='956623'] How can a draft go on...when it is only allowed by a collective bargaining agreement? And that collective bargaining agreement has expired, with no new one in place? [/quote] I'm probably wrong, but I think the draft can happen, but the teams can't sign anyone (based on the draft results)until they have a CBA in place. If they did, it would violate the case law that resulted the last time they had a work stoppage. I think it would be considered collusion or something along those lines. Which works fine for rookies, since most of them won't be signed until July anyways. The rookie minicamps will be in danger though and any possible rookie participation in summer training camps depending on when the CBA is agreed upon and the teams and player agents work out the rookie contracts. It could be a real mess to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='BengalRep85-9' timestamp='1294017476' post='956628'] Any rumors or ideas who denver or buffalo likes? It's very early in the process but it never hurts to speculate!! I'm assuming Carolina takes Luck if he comes out, if he doesn't that changes everything. I personally like Fairley, dude looks like a BEAST. Bowers is high up there too but I like Dunlap and MJ starting at DE. [b]I don't think Fairley is a NT in a 3-4 which denver runs, not sure what Buffalo runs.[/b] Anyway, predictions? [/quote] No, Fairley is not a NT, but he could be a pretty good 3-4 DE. I have heard Denver might like Peterson to replace Champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalRep85-9 Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Squirrlnutz' timestamp='1294017276' post='956624'] I'm sure someone can find the supporting articles but it has been said many times that the Draft will happen regardless of the CBA standing at the time. [/quote] It's kinda cool that the draft came very close to being illegal. http://www.slate.com/id/2251620/ Seems to me after reading the article that if there is no CBA, a draft can not be held or the league runs the risk of this happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Tigers Johnson' timestamp='1294017593' post='956630'] I would bet(assuming these guys come out)... 1. Panthers = Andrew Luck 2. Broncos = A.J. Green 3. Bills = Next Best QB 4. Bengals Daquan Bowers ....or maybe that is me being hopeful. [/quote] honestly, I think Broncos will try hard to trade down. They won't get Luck, Bowers and Fairley don't fit a 3-4, and honestly with Brandon Loyd, Eddie Royal, and Dem Thomas, AJ Green isn't a desperate need. I think they'll try and trade down and get Petersen as the heir apparent to Champ Bailey, or they'll take a QB if the new coach isn't sold on Tebow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|Tigers Johnson| Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1294017906' post='956637'] honestly, I think Broncos will try hard to trade down. They won't get Luck, Bowers and Fairley don't fit a 3-4, and honestly with Brandon Loyd, Eddie Royal, and Dem Thomas, AJ Green isn't a desperate need. I think they'll try and trade down and get Petersen as the heir apparent to Champ Bailey, or they'll take a QB if the new coach isn't sold on Tebow. [/quote] That was pretty much an early stab in the dark by me.... I really want Bowers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Tigers Johnson' timestamp='1294018035' post='956640'] That was pretty much an early stab in the dark by me.... I really want Bowers.... [/quote] I really want Fairley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|Tigers Johnson| Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1294018137' post='956641'] I really want Fairley. [/quote] Who does he displace in the starting lineup? Peko or Atkins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1294018137' post='956641'] I really want Fairley. [/quote] I really want Green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tigre Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='BengalRep85-9' timestamp='1294017857' post='956636'] It's kinda cool that the draft came very close to being illegal. http://www.slate.com/id/2251620/ Seems to me after reading the article that if there is no CBA, a draft can not be held or the league runs the risk of this happening again. [/quote] I posted this a while back...after I was researching some landmark legal decisions in the world of sports (Curt Flood and Andy Messersmith cases being two others). You are correct: the courts did declare the draft invalid at least...unconstitutional at worst. The only way to allow for it, was by agreement of union and league in contract. That agreement just expired. Maybe there is some temporary injunction or interim understanding--as BBR says--which will allow teams to draft, just not sign contracts. To me, that would satisfy in principle the ruling in the Yazoo case--but would still restrict movement of player? Doesn't do much good if they can't be signed and play though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrlnutz Posted January 3, 2011 Report Share Posted January 3, 2011 [quote name='Tigers Johnson' timestamp='1294018290' post='956643'] Who does he displace in the starting lineup? Peko or Atkins? [/quote] I don't think Atkins will be a starter. I think you plug Fairley in and rotate Peko and Atkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.