Korea rhetoric ramping up... Now coming down...

[|Numbers|]

With such rhetoric coming out of both sides in this potential conflict, could this mean an actual war on the horizon or just rumors of war ?

 

It troubles me deeply that our military might be getting dragged into a conflict again.  Even some military "experts" have already been using the words "regime change" IF North Korea starts something.  Could that something be a small scale "incident" or something larger ?  Could nuclear weapons be used on either side ?  Seoul is so close to the border that there is no way it's millions of people come out of this without massive loss of life.  Think of the scale of refugees in this type of conflict.  Think Iraq was bad ?  The loss of "innocent" life will be on a proportion never heard of in recent history.  Not to mention the economic impact this will have on the world economy and in specifically the US economy.

 

What worries me most is what I can't put my finger on.  It seems so different than all the other times Korea has made the news.  Almost like and eerie feeling of inevitability ... :46:

[Jamie_B]

China doesnt want war, they will step in and take care of it soon enough.

[sois]

North Korea is crappy.  When I play Tropico, I never let my citizens get all starving and shit.

[|Numbers|]

China doesnt want war, they will step in and take care of it soon enough.

 

I have not seen China doing anything that looks slightly pro-active in this matter.  One article in this matter explains why China is the way they are with North Korea and vice versa.

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/04/can-china-stop-north-korea/274626/

 

Can China Stop North Korea?

 

Why Beijing has less leverage over its troublesome neighbor than you think.

 

After a brief lull, North Korea has begun acting up again: Kim Jong Un has vowed to re-start the country's nuclear program, has declared the near-60 year-old armistice between his country and South Korea "void", and, in his latest provocation, has prevented workers from the South from entering the jointly-owned Kaesong Industrial Park, once a symbol of hopeful reconciliation. And so the usual cycle continues: Pyongyang rattles, Washington steams, and Beijing expresses "regret" and "hope" for peace on the Korean peninsula.

 

China's reticence in dealing with North Korea is, in a way, puzzling; After all, Beijing isn't shy in protecting its national interests in the East China Sea, standing up to countries like Japan and the Philippines. China is also North Korea's only ally and, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, provides 90 percent of North Korea's energy imports, 80 percent of its consumer goods, and 45 percent of its food. If China suddenly decided to cut ties to its mercurial neighbor, North Korea would almost certainly collapse.

 

That, precisely, is the point: China really, really doesn't want North Korea to collapse. For one thing, the trickle of North Koreans currently crossing the border would turn into a flood, leaving China with a messy humanitarian situation on its hands. Secondly, a North Korean collapse would no doubt foster the creation of a unified, pro-U.S. Korea on China's northeastern flank, depriving Beijing of a valuable buffer against American interest. For these reasons, China needs North Korea to stay alive -- and North Korea knows it.

 

Beijing wants  Pyongyang to adopt Chinese-style economic reforms, as this would enable North Korea to wean itself off of Chinese support and become more stable. The United States and the rest of the international community would probably find this acceptable, too. So why doesn't it happen?

 

Two reasons. First, North Korea is historically wary of Chinese influence, dating back to the inception of the country after World War II. According to Andrew Scobell, a China expert at the RAND Corporation, founding leader Kim Il Sung (Kim Jong Un's grandfather) actually purged ethnic Korean Communists who studied in China, fearful that they constituted a potential fifth column. And when global Communism cratered following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea increasingly embraced juche, or self-dependence, as a national ideology. As Scobell notes, "North Korea just isn't comfortable with China's dominant role in its economy."

 

Secondly, the Kim regime fears that implementing reforms might reduce its grip on political power, even though this hasn't happened (yet) in China. Pyongyang has experimented with small-scale reforms in the past, but has always stopped well short of abandoning its command-style economic system. Why? Scobell says that "they're afraid of reforming the regime out of existence."

Is there a chance this situation might change? Possibly. Kim Jong-un has apparently installed a Prime Minister who favors Chinese-style economic reforms, indicating that the president may be open to tinkering at the margins. But in the short term, it appears likely that  both China and the United States will calm Kim down, promise future avenues for cooperation, and then wait and see what happens next.

 

To actually calm someone down you have to engage that person.  I don't see any positive engagement going on.

[-GoBengals-]

just like with the UN sanctions, it is expected that, at the "last minute" china will come smack then down to size again, just as china was very late in the un saction thing, getting on board at the last minute, so to speak.

 

IIRC

[MULLY]

I've got a friend in South Korea that is a journalist of sorts. He's been posting updates on YouTube daily. Here is today's edition.....if you're interested in seeing this away from the sensationalistic headlines and getting a perspective from South Korea.

MULLY

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uh1da8dLMBk

[MULLY]

And today's update on the US Embassy site in Korea.

 

 

The U.S. Embassy informs U.S. citizens that despite current political tensions with North Korea there is no specific information to suggest there are imminent threats to U.S. citizens or facilities in the Republic of Korea (ROK).  The Embassy has not changed its security posture and we have not recommended that U.S. citizens who reside in, or plan to visit, the Republic of Korea take special security precautions at this time.  The U.S. Embassy takes as its highest priority the welfare of American citizens in Korea.  Should the security situation change, the Embassy will issue updated information.

We urge U.S. citizens to keep in regular contact with family and friends.  U.S. citizens living or traveling abroad are encouraged to enroll in the Department of State’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP), to receive the latest travel updates and information and to obtain updated information on travel and security issues.    We encourage you to read the Emergency Preparedness Section of the Embassy website.  You can also get global updates at the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Consular Affairs website where you can find the current Worldwide Caution, Travel Warning, Travel Alert, and Country Specific Information. Follow us on Twitter and the ACS Seoul page on Facebook as well, or you can download our free Smart Traveler App, available through iTunes and the Android marketplace to have travel information at your fingertips. U.S. citizens without Internet access may register directly with the appropriate U.S. Embassy or Consulate.  By registering, U.S. citizens make
it easier for the U.S. Embassy or Consulate to contact them in case of emergency.
Travel information is also available at http://travel.state.gov/.   Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll-free in the United States and Canada or, for callers outside the United States and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444.  These numbers are available from 8:00 am to 8:00 pm Monday through Friday, Eastern Time (except U.S. federal holidays).
For information on “What the Department of State Can and Can’t Do in a Crisis,” please visit the Bureau of Consular Affairs’ website at http://travel.state.gov/.  For further information on specific countries, U.S. citizens should consult the Country Specific Information pages, Travel Alerts, and Travel Warnings athttp://travel.state.gov/ as well as the Worldwide Caution.  Follow us on Twitter and the Bureau of Consular Affairs’ page on Facebook as well.

Embassy Contact Information
American Citizen Services
U.S. Embassy Seoul
188, Sejongdae-ro, Jongno-gu
Seoul 110-710, Korea
- or -
American Citizen Services
U.S. Embassy, Seoul
Unit #9600
DPO AP 96209
Tel: 02-397-4040 (Passport Inquiry line)
Tel: 02-397-4114 (All other services)
Fax: 02-397-4080
DSN: 721-4114
English:  http://www.asktheconsul.org/
E-mail:  seoulinfoacs@state.gov

[MULLY]

One other thing, as of today, April 5, 2013, they are still allowing public tours to the DMZ. Once those get shut down then you know shit's getting heavy.

MULLY

[T-Dub]

Kim Jong Un is just trying to cement his power & authority because he looks like someone's goofy sidekick.  He's vastly exaggerated their military capability and there's not a move he can make against us or our allies that will benefit him.  All he can do is talk a bunch of shit and hope the UN or someone helps him feed his starving people. This isn't the first time NK has done this, either.

[|Numbers|]

I've got a friend in South Korea that is a journalist of sorts. He's been posting updates on YouTube daily. Here is today's edition.....if you're interested in seeing this away from the sensationalistic headlines and getting a perspective from South Korea.

MULLY

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uh1da8dLMBk

 

He has some good points.  However, one point for not worrying is nobody there is worrying about North Korea.  As a history buff, I have to throw it out the window.   How many Europeans thought Hitler in the mid to late 30's would not attack or that if he did not much would come of it ? 

 

Complacency kills.  I realize that worrying about something on a constant basis does no good either but from what he reported, nobody is worrying.  Not a seoul...

 

There is enough artillery aimed at Seoul to level that city in about 2 hours and they have enough missiles to lob a few at Japan as well.  Just imagine for one minute that the city was not Seoul but something like Cincinnati and the guy on the other end has nuclear weapons also.   

 

There is something different this time and I can't put my finger on it.

 

Fulcher:  How are people in Japan reacting towards all this rhetoric ?

[MULLY]

He has some good points.  However, one point for not worrying is nobody there is worrying about North Korea.  As a history buff, I have to throw it out the window.   How many Europeans thought Hitler in the mid to late 30's would not attack or that if he did not much would come of it ? 

 

Complacency kills.  I realize that worrying about something on a constant basis does no good either but from what he reported, nobody is worrying.  Not a seoul...

 

There is enough artillery aimed at Seoul to level that city in about 2 hours and they have enough missiles to lob a few at Japan as well.  Just imagine for one minute that the city was not Seoul but something like Cincinnati and the guy on the other end has nuclear weapons also.   

 

There is something different this time and I can't put my finger on it.

 

Fulcher:  How are people in Japan reacting towards all this rhetoric ?

 

Nobody is really paying to much to it. I mean, the news is reporting everything, of course, but so much of this has come out of North Korea so many times that it's almost like crying wolf. On top of that, there are various things to look at that CNN refuses to say, I mean, no news outlets are going to get much watch time if they don't make it sound like WWIII is just around the corner. Anyway, bullet points....

 

1) US Embassy and other embassies are not telling us to get out.

2) Public tours are still running to the DMZ

3) Reports are coming out of NK that troops have been removed from their "get ready bunkers" and are moving back to their normal quarters.

 

Just all kinds of that stuff that news outlets aren't going to report on.

 

I agree with you though, there seems to be something different this time around. We'll just have to wait and see. They may be able to level Seoul in a few hours but if that was to happen, God have mercy on their souls. NK would be a memory within a day. America isn't going to let that happen without substantial recourse.

 

The only thing that really worries me is that not only has NK cut off communications with SK, they've also cut off communications with China. Now, I don't care how many balls that little midget might think he has, he doesn't want to get on the wrong side of China.....which is what seems to be happening. That worries me a bit. Don't forget, this is just a news story for you guys. We all know they don't have the capabilities to hit the US with a nuke. But, I'm just a stone's throw across the pond. If anything goes down towards Japan I'm right in it. I'm only about an hour and a half from Tokyo.

 

MULLY

[|Numbers|]

The only thing that really worries me is that not only has NK cut off communications with SK, they've also cut off communications with China. Now, I don't care how many balls that little midget might think he has, he doesn't want to get on the wrong side of China.....which is what seems to be happening. That worries me a bit. Don't forget, this is just a news story for you guys. We all know they don't have the capabilities to hit the US with a nuke. But, I'm just a stone's throw across the pond. If anything goes down towards Japan I'm right in it. I'm only about an hour and a half from Tokyo.

 

MULLY

 

No dialogue is most definitely a matter to worry about.  Let's all hope and pray for all of you guys over in that vicinity that this is just a cry of wolf. Keep us updated.

 

P.S. It is not a concern of mine that a North Korean nuke could hit the US mainland.  It is a concern that the North Koreans launch any nuke at anybody or lob artillery at a populated city or create a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions.  Any of the above actions will most certainly result in the infamous regime change philosophy and that in itself always results in draining the economy and creates issues unto itself.  China needed to step up a long time ago and well before this decade.

[|Bunghole|]

Fuck North Korea. They are a blight on the ass of the planet.

[CincyInDC]

Since this is a football board...

 

 

[attachment=1130:ct.jpg]

[Jamie_B]

This one is my favorite....

 

[Jamie_B]

 

 

:24:

[akiliMVP]

[Jamie_B]

[-GoBengals-]

Kim Jong Un is just trying to cement his power & authority because he looks like someone's goofy sidekick.  He's vastly exaggerated their military capability and there's not a move he can make against us or our allies that will benefit him.  All he can do is talk a bunch of shit and hope the UN or someone helps him feed his starving people. This isn't the first time NK has done this, either.

 

i agree on pretty much all counts.. the first things written when he took over were if he could be a powerful leader and his balls were in question early...

 

then there is a 1% chance he is crazy enough to go nuts on everyone.. but that wont last long and wont likely have any negative impact here in the US.

[T-Dub]

[akiliMVP]

[|Bunghole|]

A Snickers is like a month's caloric intake for your average North Korean.

[T-Dub]

 

[T-Dub]

[|Numbers|]

A little before most of our times but Homer may appreciate the reference...

 

Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb...