Random 2023 Bengals related stuff

[Jamie_B]

16 minutes ago, alleycat said:

It's not about this weekend. It's about future games. Many of these 7-6 teams have cream-puff schedules from here on out. If there's a scrum of teams with the same record as us at the end, we will lose because of tie-breakers. We have a terrible tie-breakers because the first applicable tiebreaker is division record, where we are currently at .000 but can ultimately be no better than .333, which sill still be last among any competitors. 

 

 

Oh I get that.

[AmishBengalFan]

21 minutes ago, alleycat said:

... because the first applicable tiebreaker is division record, where we are currently at .000 but can ultimately be no better than .333, which sill still be last among any competitors. 

 

Division TB is only applied when breaking ties within the division.  When comparing us to Indy, Denver, Buffalo or anyone else NOT in the North, our division record does not matter one whit.  It's sweep/head to head, conference record, common opponents, SOV and SOS in that order.

 

The NFL tiebreaking scheme has been largely unchanged for decades - I am floored why so many people fundamentally don't understand how it works.

[AmishBengalFan]

But don't take my word for it.  Here's the NFL explaining it..... 

 

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

[alleycat]

Are we reading this rule differently (for wild-card tie-breakers, after head-to-head which can't apply so many clubs in a scrum)?

 

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

 

[alleycat]

But don't take my word for it, use the playoff machine. Right now we are likely not to get in. If Buffalo keeps winning, Bengals fans need to become Dolphins fans for the remainder. 

[spicoli]

They’re locked into the 6 seed no matter what happens until Saturday at about 8 pm.

[spicoli]

 

[Jungletiger]

 

[Jungletiger]

 

[Jungletiger]

 

[saphead]

How the world has that been 14 years ago already? Where has the time gone? 

How did those guys even make it thru that season. 

[Jamie_B]

 

 

[spicoli]

 

[New Jersey Bengal]

39 minutes ago, spicoli said:

 

He's improving and is no longer mild Murphy lol

[Jamie_B]

1 hour ago, spicoli said:

 

 

 

He mentions that the game is slowing down for him now.

 

 

[Jungletiger]

 

[|Montana Bengal|]

 

 

[New Jersey Bengal]

52 minutes ago, Montana Bengal said:

 

 

Should be soon

[AmishBengalFan]

On 12/17/2023 at 5:43 PM, alleycat said:

Are we reading this rule differently (for wild-card tie-breakers, after head-to-head which can't apply so many clubs in a scrum)?

 

1.  

 

 

Allow me to clarify.

 

If there is a tie involving multiple teams, and if any of those teams are from the same division, those teams (and those alone) go thru the division tiebreakers to separate them.  Only the topmost team from a division continues.

 

Another way of looking at this is you have to rank all of the teams within a division 1-2-3-4 before doing anything else.  Once you've done that, you them take the topmost team from each division, and they (and only they) get considered for a wildcard.  Record, sweep, conference record, SOV, SOS, etc are used to pick the one team from those under consideration to "win" that spot.  Once that team is selected, the next-best team from that division is added to replace them and you repeat the process.

 

Division record is only used in the division tiebreakers.  It's after head to head, which is after winning percentage.

 

So, yeah, I think you are misreading the process.  No fault in that, as long as someone knows how it works.

 

Right now we are 8-6.  We are behind CFT in the North, so until they get a playoff spot we aren't even under consideration.  Excluding the four division leaders, the four teams in the mix for Seed #5 are:

 

E BUF 8-6

N CFT 9-5

S IND 8-6

W DEN 7-7

 

CFT gets it, best record. Then moving on to Seed #6:

 

E BUF 8-6

N CIN 8-6

S IND 8-6

W DEN 7-7

 

CIN gets it.  Records are the same, CIN swept BUF/IND.  If DEN were 8-6 instead of 7-7 there's no sweep since DEN/CIN have not played.  With nobody sweeping or having been swept we go to the next step, Conference Record, where we get boned.

 

Moving on to Seed #7:

 

E BUF 8-6

N PIT 7-7

S IND 8-6

W DEN 7-7

 

IND gets it on conference record (6-4 v 4-5) because they have not played BUF.

 

Seed #8:

E BUF 8-6

N PIT 7-7

S HOU 8-6

W DEN 7-7

 

HOU on conference record (5-4 v 4-5).

 

Note, the South is JAX-IND-HOU (all 8-6) because JAX has the best head-to-head record of the three, and IND is 1-0 v HOU.

 

Seed #9:

E BUF 8-6

N PIT 7-7

S TEN 5-9

W DEN 7-7

 

BUF

 

Seed #10:

E NYJ 5-9

N PIT 7-7

S TEN 5-9

W DEN 7-7

 

PIT on conference record (5-5 v 4-5)

 

And so on....

[AmishBengalFan]

On 12/17/2023 at 5:43 PM, alleycat said:

But don't take my word for it, use the playoff machine. Right now we are likely not to get in. If Buffalo keeps winning, Bengals fans need to become Dolphins fans for the remainder. 

 

Don't worry, I won't.  Lol

 

We cannot win the North so we are no longer competing against BAL, KCC (2 up on DEN with 3 to play) or MIA (2 up on BUF).  Of the teams likely to be in Wild Card contention, we beat IND, JAX and BUF, lost to HOU and did not play DEN.  So, we want HOU to win the South (which they're perfectly capable of doing) so we're only dealing with teams we beat, and need to keep ahead of DEN to avoid any tiebreaker that discounts our victories over IND JAX BUF and makes conference record (we are 3-6) important.

 

HOU taking the South, us not losing ground to IND JAX BUF and us maintaining our lead over DEN will get us to the dance.  We can catch CFT, or we can finish in 3rd behind them, won't really matter as long as we hold serve against the others.

[Le Tigre]

So what does HOU have to do to overtake JAX? 

[spicoli]

 

[|Montana Bengal|]

 

 

[AmishBengalFan]

48 minutes ago, Le Tigre said:

So what does HOU have to do to overtake JAX? 

 

Win more games.  Lol.

 

Right now, they're all 8-6.  JAX is 3-1 H2H, HOU and IND are 1-2 and have a game left against each other.  

 

Head-to-head, they fall out:

JAX 1-1 v HOU
JAX 2-0 v IND

IND 1-0 v HOU (they play again Week 18)

 

JAX will win any tie that involves IND in any capacity, whether HOU is involved or not.

Remaining games:

JAX: at TBB, CAR, at TEN

IND: at ATL, LVR, HOU

HOU: CLE, TEN, at IND

 

If JAX loses to TBB (which they're capable of doing), HOU moves into the driver's seat.  If JAX implodes (dropping two or three), then HOU wouldn't even need to beat CLE to take the division - just wins over TEN and IND would be enough.  IND could finish no better than 10-7, HOU no worse than 10-7, HOU beating IND would negate IND's earlier H2H victory, and HOU would finish 4-2 in division play (they're 2-2 right now), which would beat IND at 3-3 (3-2 right now), giving them the division.

[Jamie_B]

The best thing for us is for Miami and Houston to win their divisions because we have tiebreakers over the Bills and Jax