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2014 NFL Draft: Quarterback conundrum harks back to 2011 class

By Albert Breer

 

This is the story of eight NFL teams that went into the 2011 NFL Draft with a quarterback need.

 

It also could serve as a roadmap for those that go into the 2014 NFL Draft in that very position.

 

At the end of last week, a few of the final pre-draft turns of the 2014 quarterback carousel were taken. Ryan Fitzpatrick signed in Houston, which helped push the trade of Matt Schaub to Oakland over the goal line. With the Raiders out of the quarterback trade market, the Jets finally cut Mark Sanchez loose and brought in Michael Vick.

 

The end result of that, and moves made over the previous three weeks, is this: The teams in the top 10 aren't obligated to take quarterbacks with their respective picks. The Texans have Fitzpatrick. The Jaguars have Chad Henne. The Browns have Brian Hoyer. The Raiders have Schaub. The Buccaneers signed Josh McCown. The Vikings re-signed Matt Cassel.

All except for Hoyer will make more than $3.5 million in 2014, and all can serve as a bridge to whomever their respective franchises' quarterbacks of the future end up being, whether they come in the first round, the second round or next year.

 

"All those teams in the top 10, they're all in position to draft a top-three quarterback. And all those teams, when you look at their offseasons, they needed to address the quarterback position, and they all did," one AFC personnel director said. "And all could select one of these quarterbacks, but they also have the flexibility, as they work through the final stages of the process. No. 1, it's insurance. No. 2, it's flexibility."

 

Here's where you go back to 2011 and look at the Panthers, Titans, Jaguars, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers, Dolphins and Redskins. The Panthers took Cam Newton first overall. The Titans, Jaguars and Vikings took Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder at the eighth, 10th and 12th spots, respectively. The Bengals waited, taking receiver A.J. Green fourth overall and Andy Dalton in the second round. The Niners did the same, going with pass rusher Aldon Smith at No. 7, then grabbing Colin Kaepernick one pick after Dalton. The Dolphins and Redskins punted entirely, respectively taking center Mike Pouncey and pass rusher Ryan Kerrigan in the first round -- before both going QB in Round 1 in 2012 (Ryan Tannehill and Robert Griffin III).

 

The Niners and Bengals, the teams that patiently waited until the second round, have made the playoffs every year since. The Titans, Jaguars and Vikings all have fired their coaches.

 

The lesson here is not hard to learn.

 

Tempting as it might be to take a quarterback in the first round, clubs can be prone to manufacturing franchise players at the position when they aren't really there. And this could be another one of those years where the draft class is exceptionally strong -- as it was in 2011, given that 12 of the top 16 picks already have gone on to make a Pro Bowl -- but with serious questions hovering over the top guys at the most important position.

 

"I'd be scared to death (to take one of the quarterbacks high)," one NFC college scouting director said. "Teams like Jacksonville and Oakland have to debate that. You look at, say, an AJ McCarron, and he has traits like some of the really good ones, and you can get that guy at the end of the first round or top of the second and develop him, with not as much pressure as someone taken with a top-five pick. And then with the high pick, you take the best player. There's merit to it."

 

*****

 

The hit rate on first-round quarterbacks has never been near perfect, but as the importance of the position has ascended, the bottom has dropped out on the percentages. Nine quarterbacks were drafted in the first round from 2009 to 2011. Four of them (Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow and Gabbert) have been jettisoned by their drafting teams, and two of those guys are among the four (Sanchez, Tebow, Newton, Matthew Stafford) who have started playoff games among the group.

 

The risk of failure is high in any year. And there are more questions this year than most.

 

"Just average," is how one NFC personnel exec described this QB class. "The kid from Central Florida (Blake Bortles) has a chance to be really good. (Johnny) Manziel scares me -- he's 50-50. (Teddy) Bridgewater reminds me a little of Byron Leftwich, in that he's a little soft. (Derek) Carr's just good. You take one of them in the third round, you're happy with that. The problem is, if you really want one of these guys, you almost have to take them in the first."

 

Several high-level evaluators said four players appear to stand out in this year's class: South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, Buffalo outside linebacker Khalil Mack, Auburn offensive tackle Greg Robinson and Clemson receiver Sammy Watkins.

 

The NFC personnel exec opined that Bortles, if given a pure grade based on his potential, would probably fall in a cluster of eight or so players behind those top four. The rest, he said, might not be any better than second-round talents.

 

But quarterbacks almost always get overdrafted -- mostly when a team likes a guy enough, and then gets fearful he won't last long enough for the club to play it patient. And so it seems a good bet someone will be rolling the dice in May on a player many others aren't sold on.

 

"I'm a big Blake Bortles fan -- he has the 'it' factor in the way he carries himself. I can see that helping him succeed, and he can probably still gain 20 pounds," one AFC offensive coordinator said. "The other guys I'm really scared of. I didn't like Bridgewater before the workout and I don't like him after it. With the free time he'll have, and the offseason there is at this level, Manziel scares me. It's tough."
 

Tough because if you don't have one, you're looking for the guy. And it's also tough because drafting the wrong guy can be a bigger problem than passing on a group altogether.

 

*****

 

So the operative question now, after a couple weeks of free agency, is whether or not the league is, en masse, starting to react to past stories of failure.

 

The aforementioned additions of veteran backup quarterbacks, who can serve as a bridge for a year or two, might be early evidence that it's happening.

 

"None of these quarterbacks that are there are the kinds of guys you jump up and down about," the NFC college director said. "They all have their flaws and question marks."

 

Punting can be risky, too. Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota both will be eligible for the 2015 NFL Draft, and each has promise. But maybe the guy the pros like most is Penn State's Christian Hackenberg, who can't declare for another two years.

 

The fact is, eventually, you have to find your guy somewhere. Some sell out at the top of the draft. Others, like Seattle, keep throwing darts (Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Flynn) until they hit (Russell Wilson) while building the team to surround the eventual leader.

 

There isn't a simple answer here. And when the draft class is strong at other positions -- as this year's is -- the conundrum is hard to miss.

 

"You can talk yourself out of taking the best guy, no doubt," the NFC personnel exec said. "Say you have three guys you like. And these two are better players, but the quarterback, he's gonna touch the ball on every snap. You can talk yourself out of taking a really good player. You'd say, 'We can find a pass rusher, or a corner, but we can't find a quarterback so easily.' And then you take the wrong guy."

 

And the AFC personnel director adds, "If you don't have a quarterback, it's hard to have some level of hope; it can feel like a futile effort. ... But if you miss? You set your franchise back two to three years."

 

The follies of 2011 are easy to spot now, of course. But if you're a club needing a quarterback of the future, it's not exactly an easy misstep to avoid.

 

Follow Albert Breer on Twitter @AlbertBreer.

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Another 2 bite the dust.  The Cleveland Browns:  Where the hope and dream of finally playing on an NFL team die.

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"Just average," is how one NFC personnel exec described this QB class. "The kid from Central Florida (Blake Bortles) has a chance to be really good. (JohnnyManziel scares me -- he's 50-50. (TeddyBridgewater reminds me a little of Byron Leftwich, in that he's a little soft. (DerekCarr's just good. You take one of them in the third round, you're happy with that. The problem is, if you really want one of these guys, you almost have to take them in the first."

 

 

I feel largely the same.  It's Bortles and a whole lot of unknown.  Even Bortles will get taken 10-15 picks higher than he probably should.

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I feel largely the same.  It's Bortles and a whole lot of unknown.  Even Bortles will get taken 10-15 picks higher than he probably should.

None of these guys thrill me.   Just goes to show how hard it is to find a "Franchise" QB.   Its a lot easier and less risky to find a good player like Dalton and surround him with talent than the next Brett Favre, Brady or Manning(Peyton) who make the players around them better.

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None of these guys thrill me.   Just goes to show how hard it is to find a "Franchise" QB.   Its a lot easier to find a good player like Dalton and surround him with talent than the next Brett Favre, Brady or Manning(Peyton) who make the players around them better.

 

 

that's why I re-posted that chart from yesterday that you made fun of. :p

 

 

People may not like Dalton's ceiling, but its hard to get good QB play in the NFL.  It's even harder to find great QB play.  

 

That doesn't mean you shouldn't still try, but when even top 10 QB's are busting at a nearly 60% rate, you don't just throw away a good one.

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that's why I re-posted that chart from yesterday that you made fun of. :P

 

 

People may not like Dalton's ceiling, but its hard to get good QB play in the NFL.  It's even harder to find great QB play.  

 

That doesn't mean you shouldn't still try, but when even top 10 QB's are busting at a nearly 60% rate, you don't just throw away a good one.

Like I have said, I would love to have a better QB.  Cold hard reality is getting one is the MOST DIFFICULT thing in the NFL BY FAR.   

 

If you find a good one (which I think Andy is) your best bet is to surround him with talent. 

 

High quality QBs rarely ever make it to FA and when they do (Manning) they pretty much have their choice of where to play.   

 

A good FA like Matt Schaub "might" improve the position but I can't imagine it would be much and the cost in real dollars and team tranquility makes it a dumb move.

 

Guys like Andrew Luck don't fall to even marginal teams and we are not even close to marginal.

 

Guys like Wilson and Kaepernick went to established clubs with plenty of talent and are not asked to play like a Brady or Manning.   Does anyone honestly think either would have done well at say Oakland, Cleveland or Washington?  I certainly don't.  Both would probably be maligned and afterthoughts. 

 

BTW, that chart sucks.  Confusing chart label.  Axis not labeled.  2-D bar graphs.   Percentages to the hundreths??   Solid C in grade school, C- in high school.  Office gets moved to the boiler room in the real world.  

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I remember Browns fans saying drafting Weeden was like us drafting Dalton.  So are they going to imitate the Redskins now?

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Like I have said, I would love to have a better QB.  Cold hard reality is getting one is the MOST DIFFICULT thing in the NFL BY FAR.   

 

If you find a good one (which I think Andy is) your best bet is to surround him with talent. 

 

High quality QBs rarely ever make it to FA and when they do (Manning) they pretty much have their choice of where to play.   

 

A good FA like Matt Schaub "might" improve the position but I can't imagine it would be much and the cost in real dollars and team tranquility makes it a dumb move.

 

Guys like Andrew Luck don't fall to even marginal teams and we are not even close to marginal.

 

Guys like Wilson and Kaepernick went to established clubs with plenty of talent and are not asked to play like a Brady or Manning.   Does anyone honestly think either would have done well at say Oakland, Cleveland or Washington?  I certainly don't.  Both would probably be maligned and afterthoughts. 

 

 

 

I think the best thing other teams with young QB's have done, is that they've surrounded them with talent and not put a lot on their shoulders.  Seattle, San Francisco, Philly.  All playoff teams, all teams with young QB's and strong running games they lean on.  For the former 2, they also have top 10 defenses.  

 

 

Regardless of what one thinks of Dalton, we can ALL agree that the Bengals have put a lot on his shoulders his first 3 years.  He's been able to handle much of it, but not all of it.  His running game has never been higher than 20th.  It's been abandoned in all 3 playoff games.  

 

 

I'm looking forward to seeing how Dalton, and the offense as a whole, looks in an offense where he's not being relied on to carry most of the load.

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Like I have said, I would love to have a better QB.  Cold hard reality is getting one is the MOST DIFFICULT thing in the NFL BY FAR.   

 

If you find a good one (which I think Andy is) your best bet is to surround him with talent. 

 

High quality QBs rarely ever make it to FA and when they do (Manning) they pretty much have their choice of where to play.   

 

A good FA like Matt Schaub "might" improve the position but I can't imagine it would be much and the cost in real dollars and team tranquility makes it a dumb move.

 

Guys like Andrew Luck don't fall to even marginal teams and we are not even close to marginal.

 

Guys like Wilson and Kaepernick went to established clubs with plenty of talent and are not asked to play like a Brady or Manning.   Does anyone honestly think either would have done well at say Oakland, Cleveland or Washington?  I certainly don't.  Both would probably be maligned and afterthoughts. 

 

BTW, that chart sucks.  Confusing chart label.  Axis not labeled.  2-D bar graphs.   Percentages to the hundreths??   Solid C in grade school, C- in high school.  Office gets moved to the boiler room in the real world.  

 

And even Schaub has a few big question marks and isn't cheap.  Was last year a one time thing or has he lost that little bit of reaction time so that passes that used to get through now do not?  And he's no spring chicken.

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And even Schaub has a few big question marks and isn't cheap.  Was last year a one time thing or has he lost that little bit of reaction time so that passes that used to get through now do not?  And he's no spring chicken.

All good points except 32 isn't old for a QB.  Rich Gannon was an All-Pro and AFC Champion at 37.  

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Fixed it for ya.

 

Joking but in reality, he may be the most talented, but I'm not sure about productive.

 

I really like him....he's going to surprise people I think.  I'd love him at #24. 

 

Fuck no he is lucky if he is the 5th or 6th best

 

Alright, that does it......I'm officially pimping Roby this year like I did Eifert last year.   He's going to be the best CB out of this draft when it's all said and done.  Beleeeeee dat! 

 

Seriously....lucky if he's 5th or 6th best?  I don't think that's accurate in the least.  We'll find out.  I think he'll be very good. 

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Who did the "Playmakers" draft last year? Was it alley?

 

I think we need more themed drafts ... we can pick the closest one after its all said and done.

 

I think we need the Ohio-only draft, SEC draft, best names draft, foreigner draft, etc.... (of course we can do this in the draft forum so people don't get pissy)


 

I really like him....he's going to surprise people I think.  I'd love him at #24. 

 

 

Alright, that does it......I'm officially pimping Roby this year like I did Eifert last year.   He's going to be the best CB out of this draft when it's all said and done.  Beleeeeee dat! 

 

Seriously....lucky if he's 5th or 6th best?  I don't think that's accurate in the least.  We'll find out.  I think he'll be very good. 

 

I think he meant 5th or 6th best CB, not 5th or 6th rounder??

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Who did the "Playmakers" draft last year? Was it alley?
 
I think we need more themed drafts ... we can pick the closest one after its all said and done.
 
I think we need the Ohio-only draft, SEC draft, best names draft, foreigner draft, etc.... (of course we can do this in the draft forum so people don't get pissy)

 
I think he meant 5th or 6th best CB, not 5th or 6th rounder??


Yeah that's what I mean
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Who did the "Playmakers" draft last year? Was it alley?

 

I think we need more themed drafts ... we can pick the closest one after its all said and done.

 

I think we need the Ohio-only draft, SEC draft, best names draft, foreigner draft, etc.... (of course we can do this in the draft forum so people don't get pissy)

 

Yeah, it was me.  I could get into that.  At least it would feel like meaningful, forward-looking conversation.

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4. DE/OLB Adrian Hubbard, Alabama
 

 

That's a guy I've mentioned a few times this spring who really intrigues me.  I don't watch much bama football...He played a kind of hybrid DE/LB position but everything about him screams DE to me.  I was shocked when he put up the numbers he did at the combine, given his somewhat pedestrian year.  Then I went back and looked and saw that he was widely considered a borderline 1st round pick at the beginning of the college season. It's amazing how fickle the post draft process is. I've often noticed, though, that NFL teams aren't fickle at all, and come draft day the guys who have the pre-draft season slump get taken more in line with their earlier performance (and potential).

 

He's 6-6, 260 with 34.5 inch arms and ran a 4.69 40, and a 38.5 inch vert.


All Big Ten:
1. RB Carlos Hyde, OSU
2. OT Jack Mewhort, OSU
3. CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Nebraska
4. TE C.J. Fiedorwicz, Iowa

Big Ten does not have many good prospects to pick from

 

You forgot Dennard in 1.  :P

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Apologies in advance....

 

1. DE - 3-Way Kony Ealy

2. DT - Dom "Eggs Over" Easley

3. OC - Travis "TV Dinner" Swanson

4. ILB - Lamin "Cake" Barrow

5.OG - Jon Halapio "Poppers"

6 DE - Michael "Green Eggs" Sam

6.DE - Taylor "Artichoke" Hart

7.OT - Justin "Bacon" Britt

7.FB - Gator "Tastes Like Chicken" Hoskins

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Apologies in advance....
 
1. DE - 3-Way Kony Ealy
2. DT - Dom "Eggs Over" Easley
3. OC - Travis "TV Dinner" Swanson
4. ILB - Lamin "Cake" Barrow
5.OG - Jon Halapio "Poppers"
6 DE - Michael "Green Eggs" Sam
6.DE - Taylor "Artichoke" Hart
7.OT - Justin "Bacon" Britt
7.FB - Gator "Tastes Like Chicken" Hoskins


Very nice! Even worked in the extra picks too.
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I just saw that Kareem Martin ran a 1.53 10 yard split on his 40.  That's nuts. .03 better than Clowney.  With his size, I'd have to think an NFL D-Line coach would think he could turn that into something.  Will he still be there by the 2nd rounder?

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