Draft Notes

[akiliMVP]

I just saw that Kareem Martin ran a 1.53 10 yard split on his 40.  That's nuts. .03 better than Clowney.  With his size, I'd have to think an NFL D-Line coach would think he could turn that into something.  Will he still be there by the 2nd rounder?

I doubt it. But Michael Johnson fell to the 3rd with similar measurables. Not sure what the knocks on Martin are.

[happyrid]

I doubt it. But Michael Johnson fell to the 3rd with similar measurables. Not sure what the knocks on Martin are.

 

Kind of similar to some of the knocks on MJ, including the final knock that his motor runs hot and cold, which was the big knock on MJ also.

 

Negatives

• Culprit of schematic breakdowns on occasion; freelanced too often. 
• Little burst from static positions; inconsistent coming off the ball. 
• Heavy feet to work laterally down the line of scrimmage; likes to turn shoulders and pursue. 
• Not a technician when it comes to hand usage as a rusher; plays off instincts alone. 
• Rushes with too much finesse for stretches instead of playing to strengths. 
• Struggles to disengage after bull rushes to play mobile quarterbacks. 
• Inconsistent usage of size and strength; doesn’t take advantage ofmatchups with backs or tight ends. 
• Will lose ground trying to anchor a double-team due to high pad level and little knee bend. 
• Lets his pads get too high at the line of scrimmage against run blocks when trying to shed. 
• Can’t get himself out of trouble when losing gap discipline; gets washed from plays if he takes a bad step. 
• Doesn’t sink hips and play under control in space; leads to missed tackles. 
• Motor can run a bit cold at times.

[FulcherVulcher33]

 
 
you think Baptiste makes it that far?

I would take Baptiste over anyone not named gilbert or dennard

[Orange 'n Black]

This article articulates what I like about Bridgewater pretty well:

 

http://grantland.com/features/teddy-bridgewater-blake-bortles-nfl-draft-pro-day-meaningless/

 

Teddy Bridgewater or Blake Bortles?

The answer is easy if you understand one thing: Pro days don’t mean anything

BY BILL BARNWELL ON MARCH 25, 2014PRINT

Who would have thought you could learn so much about a quarterback by simply taking the defense off the field? Last week, top quarterback prospects Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles each went through their respective pro day workouts. It’s hard to imagine the two events producing a more different set of opinions. Bridgewater’s pro day was a fiasco, with the Louisville product struggling with deeper throws and managing to complete just 57 of the 65 passes he attempted.¹Bortles’s pro day, meanwhile, conjured all the right adjectives.Impressive. Solid. Bortles’s strong pitch might very well be the final piece of the puzzle he needed to rise to the top of this year’s quarterback class.

That’s no surprise. The entire pre-draft process — but most notably the pro day quarterback workout — is designed to make guys like Bortles look good while hiding the strengths of a player like Bridgewater. It plays up physical tools at the expense of actual football skills. The tools help, but you need the skills to succeed. And Bortles might very well be a better quarterback than Bridgewater when all is said and done, but I strongly doubt what happened last week gives us any reliable data on whether that’s the case.

♦♦♦

Most elite college quarterback prospects these days opt out of the NFL scouting combine in favor of their own pro day, and it’s easy to understand why. A pro day allows a quarterback to throw in the settings and surroundings of his (and his team of handlers’) choosing. The passer can pick the receivers he’ll be throwing to and the drills he’ll run. Most important, though, each pro day is built around a scripted passing regimen customized to show off the quarterback’s respective strengths (with some marginal lip service paid to addressing his weaknesses). The quarterback can prepare for weeks to run this exact script, and since pro days occur much later than the combine, he even gets an extra month to prepare. It’s the pink slime of sports: There’s something vaguely resembling football in there, but it shouldn’t be taken as a satisfying substitute for the real thing.

Unmolested in the pocket and with no coverage to read, superior athletes are going to stand out. A passer with spectacular arm strength will have all the time he needs to loft throws downfield. Fluid, mobile quarterbacks reliably show off the footwork they’ve been drilling for weeks with ease. Players who just look like they’re quarterbacks have no better canvas for their skills than a pro day. And that’s exactly the sort of prospect Bortles appears to be. While he’s certainly not without merit, his rise up the quarterback rankings this offseason has been driven by his prototypical size and above-average arm strength. He’s seen as a raw talent that the right coach could mold into a superstar. For raw talents like JaMarcus Russell, whose workout was described by Jon Gruden at the time as “Star Wars,”² the pro day is ice.

There is something crucial that a pro day doesn’t measure, though. (And no, it’s not heart.) More and more, when I go back through recent history and look at the first-round quarterbacks who failed to live up to expectations, I notice how frequently the problem of making accurate throws while handling a professional pass rush seems to come up. It’s not just that this isn’t tested during any of the pre-draft rituals, it’s that it’s thrown out the window and replaced with what might very well be false information. A quarterback shows effective footwork after weeks of drilling for a pro day, only to immediately lose that footwork and resort to bad habits once Aldon Smith or Robert Mathis starts bearing down on him.

Think about recently failed quarterback prospects and, chances are, you’ll come across a guy who had a good pro day and struggled to stay accurate under pressure. Russell is just one classic example. Blaine Gabbert had a wonderful pro day.³ Jake Locker was 40-for-42 versus air during his highly regarded performance. Samesies for Brandon Weeden and Mark Sanchez. Even Alex Smith wowed coaches with his transition from a spread offense during his pro day, a performance that very well might have pushed him ahead of Aaron Rodgers on the 49ers’ draft board. In each case, these quarterbacks struggled to handle professional pass rushes, leading to inaccuracy, higher sack rates, larger risks of injuries, and (considering Smith’s draft status) disappointing professional careers.

Now, guess what Bridgewater’s best skill is? Football Outsiders’ Matt Waldman noted, to nobody’s surprise, that it’s his preternatural ability to remain composed in the pocket and make accurate throws against pressure! He’s not a freak athlete by any stretch of the imagination, but Bridgewater’s feel for the position allows him to efficiently use his feet to elude pressure long enough to create a throwing lane and make an accurate pass. Bortles hasn’t consistently exhibited that skill. He might be the sort of athlete who can get himself out of trouble. Bridgewater’s the kind of quarterback who can avoid getting himself into trouble.

The rest of Bridgewater’s skills also show up in the fall as opposed to the spring. I’ve stolen the baseball pitching concepts of command and control in the past, and Bridgewater’s a great example of a passer who can do both. Not only does he have the functional accuracy to make catchable throws to his targets, he also has the veteran wherewithal and anticipation necessary to put passes in the exact spots his receivers would like them most. He makes the right reads at the line to set his protections and run the best possible play. He alsoreads the full field on every play.

For all that, though, his stock has slipped some during this process, a slide that will hardly be arrested by this poor pro day. His handsmight be too small. He weighs only 214 pounds.⁴ While his arm strength on short and intermediate throws is regarded as above-average, there are questions about his accuracy on truly deep passes, the sorts of throws Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford can make with ease. And after hearing for perpetuity that numbers are rendered useless by their inability to measure a player’s heart or intangibles, I find it interesting to see a player regarded as a superb team leader and tape junkie slip during February and March. Shouldn’t this be the time when scouts use their nuance and intuition to tease out those signs of leadership and respect? Why are they falling for arm strength instead?

Some teams will take Bridgewater’s poor pro day, see it as a sign ofpoor preparation, and move him down their draft boards. It’s the easy thing to do. It will take courage and conviction for a team at the top of the draft like Jacksonville or Oakland to look past Bridgewater’s bad day to draft the guy who looked like he was the best quarterback prospect on most fall Saturdays during the past two years. And even then, that team might be wrong; it may very well turn out that the process correctly reveals Bortles to be a better option than Bridgewater. But I’m very suspicious that the process isn’t asking — or answering — the questions an NFL team should be interested in.

[Bengals1181]

There’s always a bit of uncertainty when looking at metrics with interior line players, whether that’s on offense or defense. There’s so much going on in the trenches that it can be hard to assign blame or credit for specific plays. However, we can isolate different aspects of their game play which will allow a better look at what they each did specifically.

 

Compared to past pieces, this may seem light on huge charts and elaborate metrics. However, it may contain some of the most accurate metrics because it required me to go through and chart every snap of run and pass plays. That way, we can get an accurate picture of how efficient they were on a per snap basis, rather than just using totals. Remember things like pressures can be slightly subjective, so numbers may not match up to data from other services.

 

QB Metrics featuring Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel.

RB Metrics 1.0 featuring Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason, Bishop Sankey and Lache Seastrunk.

RB Metrics 2.0 featuring Andre Williams, Ka'Deem Carey, Devonta Freeman, Storm Johnson and Charles Sims.

WR Metrics 1.0 featuring Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Marqise Lee and Kelvin Benjamin.

WR Metrics 2.0 featuring Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham and Allen Robinson.

TE Metrics 1.0 featuring Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Richard Rodgers and Troy Niklas.

Sack Study featuring Jeremiah Attaochu, Dee Ford, Anthony Barr, Jadeveon Clowney, Khalil Mack, Kony Ealy,Michael Sam and Kareem Martin.

CB Metrics 1.0 featuring Darqueze Dennard, Jason Verrett, Terrance Mitchell, Bradley Roby and Justin Gilbert.

CB Metrics 2.0 featuring Kyle Fuller, Victor Hampton, Loucheiz Purifoy, Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Lamarcus Joyner.

 

How well did they rush the passer?

 

The chart below represents pass rush efficiency for each of the defensive tackles. The metric PRR, pass rush rate, measures how often the pass rusher affected the QB in the form of a pressure, sack, or knockdown. PRR+ includes pass deflections at the line of scrimmage. The number represents on a per snap basis, how often they get to the QB – ie, if PRR is 10 it means they affect the QB once every 10 snaps. Thus a lower number is better.

 

  

- We can see that Aaron Donald is nearly twice as efficient in pass rush as the next best DTs on the list. Coming in with a PRR of 6.42, his efficiency getting after the quarterback matches what you’d expect to see from the very best pass rushing linebackers and defensive ends in both college and the NFL. Frankly, this metric is exceptional for a defensive tackle.

 

- Timmy Jernigan’s pass rush efficiency is notably lower than the other defensive tackles on this list, coming in at 19.14, but that’s not totally a bad thing. This group of DTs are quality pass rushers and a PRR score of 19.14 wouldn’t be out of line for a 1st/2nd round defensive tackle in any other year.

 

- Without adding in batted passes at the line of scrimmage Hageman is still very productive, pressuring the QB once every 12.75 snaps. However, when you add on his penchant for knocking passes down, his PRR+ nearsAaron Donald’s. There may be concerns about Hageman taking plays off, but from a metrics standpoint he gets the results he needs to.

 

- Despite all the concerns and discussion about his weight, Sutton was still a quality pass rusher with a PRR similar to Hageman’s at 12.79. This would be enough to compare to DTs in the 2012 draft class like Sheldon Richardson and Sylvester Williams.

 

 

How did they do against the run?

 

Similar to the last section, I’ll break down the tackles’ impacts in the run game by looking at their rate of making effective tackles. An effective tackle is one that is behind the LOS or within 3 yards of the LOS, thus stopping a RB for a less than average run. The Eff Tak score is in the same format as PRR.

 

  

- Continuing on with his positive showing so far, Aaron Donald comes in at second among the first group of DTs, impacting the run game once every 9.4 snaps. It’s easy to think he might be a pass rush specialist only, but he clearly shows the ability to make impact tackles.

 

- Timmy Jernigan has the highest effective tackle rate of the first group of DTs at 7.24. This was plain to see when he faced Auburn, but Jernigan shows a well-roundedness by being able to affect the run game often.

 

- It’s likely that Hageman saw the least total run snaps among the entire DT class given the rotations from Minnesota. However, his supposed ‘lack of effort’ still did not show up, racking up a solid 11 Eff Tak rate.

 

- If you’re worrying about anyone being a pass rush specialist only, it might be Will Sutton. His Eff Tak rate is half that of Timmy Jernigan, making an impact tackle once every 14.75 snaps. How he’ll handle the run game at a lower weight is a question that needs to be answered.

 

 

How did they get their run stops?

 

This is a bit of an experimental section examining run stops. The goal is to see where the run goes - which is to say, if the DT is lined up over the right side A gap where did the run go relative to that alignment? I've found over the DT class, that around 47% of their tackles will be within 1 gap distance away. It's not a definitive measure and it's still something I'm examining, but I figure the more tackles a DT has (close to the LOS) further from the original alignment, the more range in the run game that player has. The chart represents the percentage of tackles made by distance from original alignment.

 

  

- We can see that Donald has a lower percentage of tackles 0-1 gap away from his original alignment than average (33% vs 47%) and 14% of his tackles were further away than expected. Along with his quality tackles mentioned in the previous section, this indicates he could have superior range in making tackles we wouldn’t normally expect a DT to make.

 

- Timmy Jernigan has a higher percentage of tackles within 1 gap than we would expect, 55.6% compared to 47% to be exact. However, that’s more likely to be expected for a DT that often played over center or only slightly shaded off.

 

- Like Donald, Hageman displays impressive range where 25% of his tackles were made 4-7 alignment positions away. This matches well with the athleticism displayed on tape and in post-season testing.

 

- Sutton has a lower percentage of tackles 4-7 gaps away at only 10%, however a solid 50% of his tackles came 2-3 gaps away which shows an ability to be more than just a space filler.

 

 

Where did they line up?

 

The image below represents each player’s alignment on both pass and run snaps. The larger the circle, the more often they frequented that position in their pre-snap alignment. This should give you a feel for what type of experience they have and where their production was gained.

 

  

- Aaron Donald primarily lined up directly over the right and left guards doing so 33.85% and 25.85% of the time respectively. It’s notable that he has the most experience rushing the passer on obvious passing downs from the outside where he did so 6.5% of the time. He also had the least experience lining up directly over center.

 

 

- In Florida State’s scheme, Jernigan played directly over center and shaded off much more than players like Sutton and Donald. 38% of his pre-snap alignments came directly over center and he was shaded off center for another 30% of plays.

 

- Hageman saw a similar pattern of playing inside, however he didn’t play directly over center as often as Jernigan, only doing so 11% of the time. He saw alignments between the guard and center on the right and left 23% and 31% of the time respectively.

 

- Although he doesn’t have quite the outside experience that Donald does, Sutton aligned pre-snap much like Donald. With an even 35% on both sides, he faced off with the guards a total of 70% of the time. In total, 15% of his snaps came inside of the two guards.

 

That’s the extent of my data on the first group of defensive tackles. Any extra stats that didn’t make the article or info on future pieces will be on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

 

 

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46653/349/peshek-dt-metrics-10

[happyrid]

According to LaCanfora on twitter, kuandjio had his knee check out okay and he doesn't have to get it rechecked.

Potentially big news. He is probably the 5th highest rated OL?

Assuming the top 4 OL are gone, top 2 CBs and top few Dlinemen, he might end up on the Bengals short list at 24.

I have mixed emotions as he seems like a bit of a boom or bust guy. I'm at least intrigued by the idea of him and Whit holding down the left side of the OL for the next 2 to 4 years with Cyrus starting at LG and then swapping with Whit in a year or 2.

[akiliMVP]

According to LaCanfora on twitter, kuandjio had his knee check out okay and he doesn't have to get it rechecked.

Potentially big news. He is probably the 5th highest rated OL?

Assuming the top 4 OL are gone, top 2 CBs and top few Dlinemen, he might end up on the Bengals short list at 24.

I have mixed emotions as he seems like a bit of a boom or bust guy. I'm at least intrigued by the idea of him and Whit holding down the left side of the OL for the next 2 to 4 years with Cyrus starting at LG and then swapping with Whit in a year or 2.

He's really young and raw but has a ton of potential. I'd redshirt him a year then start him at LT next season.

[Bengals1181]

Greg Peshek ‏@NU_Gap  Feb 25

An interesting metric to look at WR explosiveness/ YAC ability in a vacuum is YAC on screens. Cooks, Robinson do well pic.twitter.com/0VgUeo2fiN

[HairOnFire]

Loved the CB metrics.

 

Are we sleeping on Terrance Mitchell?

[Jason]

From an anonymous NFL scout with connections at tOSU:

 

 

He also thinks Shazier in 1 and Mewhort in 2.  He forgot to mention Hyde.

 

That same scout on Carlos Hyde:

 

 

“After we hung up and I realized we didn’t touch on [Carlos] I knew you’d be calling back,” the source said. “Hyde is the No. 1 back on the board. I don't know [any other NFL brass] who will share info with me who doesn't have him number one.

“One guy who I know will be making the decisions on who comes off the board for his team says Hyde is the best back to come out of the draft since [Mark] Ingram back a few years ago. He thinks he could be the best since [Darren] McFadden.

 

Also says he may not go in 1 because the position has been devalued.

[happyrid]

Watching some Darqueze Dennard:

http://blogs.thescore.com/nfl/2014/03/26/how-darqueze-dennard-physically-and-technically-dominates-receivers/

There is a lot to like, but he seems to hold on damn near every play. Watched the ND game at the above link and he is called for 2 pass interference penalties and probably should have been called for a few more.

Really unsure if this style of play will work in the NFL. You can't just grab a big handful of jersey every time the ball is thrown in your direction. The officiating is too heavily slanted toward the offense in the current NFL to get away with all the clutching and grabbing and arm bars. He doesn't give up much separation though (except for the TD where he was burned pretty bad) on most plays.

I think he might be a little bit more of a bust risk than the glowing scouting reports indicate.

[Zins30]

ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk 59m

Josh Gordon is "pretty sure" Browns will draft a QB at No. 4 http://wp.me/p14QSB-9rOw 

 

[SocalBengalEd]

Manziel looked awesome today at his proday in helmet and shoulder pads. Amazing accuracy on his deep throws. I'm not a Manziel fan but he had great proday today and I'm hoping the Browns don't draft him now.

[Zins30]

Maybe this regime end up being geniuses, maybe not.  But right now it sure is kind of puzzling how they do things...

 

 

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 7m

#Browns weren’t at Johnny Football’s Pro Day. I told GM Ray Farmer I do not understand how they approach pro days. He genuinely enjoyed that

[Zins30]

Chris Mortensen ‏@mortreport 55s

Browns so tricky they bypassed another Pro Day at Texas A&M. Ignoring every possible evaluation tool in a year of their most critical draft

[|High School Harry|]

Manziel looked awesome today at his proday in helmet and shoulder pads. Amazing accuracy on his deep throws. I'm not a Manziel fan but he had great proday today and I'm hoping the Browns don't draft him now.

 

Oh, cheer up.  The Brownies could fuck up a one man parade in a phone booth.

[rcarpenter62]

Chris Mortensen ‏@mortreport 55s

Browns so tricky they bypassed another Pro Day at Texas A&M. Ignoring every possible evaluation tool in a year of their most critical draft

 

I can't understand this!  What in the hell could possible hurt sending someone to this pro day?  The clowns. 

[Bengals1181]

 

I can't understand this!  What in the hell could possible hurt sending someone to this pro day?  The clowns. 

 

 

they didn't interview a single QB at the combine either.

[Oldcat]

 

 

they didn't interview a single QB at the combine either.

 

Given what they got when they did interview them, maybe this is a better strategy.

[membengal]

As I understand it, the browns are going to make a crazy draft day move engineered by Kevin Costner.

[Jason]

As I understand it, the browns are going to make a crazy draft day move engineered by Kevin Costner.

 

The thing they don't seem to get though is Seattle actually picks 32, not 1.  I hope they give up a boatload to move "up" from 4 to 32.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol:

[MichaelWeston]

"Farmer and Pettine don’t place a premium on pro days because they are scripted. Outside of their film study, they’ll complete their own evaluation with an interview and private workout with plays and throws that they want to see him execute.

That’s what will tell them if he should be a Cleveland Brown.

Not a spectacle in a practice bubble in Texas."

[happyrid]

That just comes off as laziness or trying to be too cute. 

 

It's like a student saying "I learn best by reading the text book and looking at other people's notes, so I'm not going to class." 

 

There's nothing to say you can't watch film, do a private workout AND see a guy up close in a relatively stressful situation to see how he handles it.

 

I would want every single little piece of info and opportunity to see a guy throw that I could possibly get if I was the GM making a decision that is going to define my career. Just because 1 thing is more valuable, it doesn't mean the other thing adds no value at all. 

[T-Dub]

 

Oh, cheer up.  The Brownies could fuck up a one man parade in a phone booth.

 

:lol:

[MichaelWeston]

That just comes off as laziness or trying to be too cute. 

 

It's like a student saying "I learn best by reading the text book and looking at other people's notes, so I'm not going to class." 

 

There's nothing to say you can't watch film, do a private workout AND see a guy up close in a relatively stressful situation to see how he handles it.

 

I would want every single little piece of info and opportunity to see a guy throw that I could possibly get if I was the GM making a decision that is going to define my career. Just because 1 thing is more valuable, it doesn't mean the other thing adds no value at all. 

 

Why? It's seems to be pretty redundant. You can have him in and do the exact same things in a setting that you control? They are basically saying to them it adds no value. They will see everything they can see at a pro day without the player being able to control it.