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Dude, you do more work on free agents than the team does!

I always use, "Hobson The Numbers" as a regular term. I even had an ongoing fun bet with Jersey where we'd try and use the term in work meetings. I could never use it without bursting out laughing. He

And yet the Falcons let him walk.  Sure, they have cap issues.  What was the result, then?  One-year deal with Titans... put on the "Did not Report List" to start the season... cut in November after t

On 1/31/2021 at 12:00 AM, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Dude, you do more work on free agents than the team does!

Thanks, 

 

It's been a good system this year. I have started a project where I update NFL rosters and it just makes sense to roll these out as I do it. I will update them 3 times or try to.....after the season before free agency, after the draft, after cut down day. I do a ton of Dynasty fantasy football so it helps to see who is likely to have a path to snaps in future years.

 

The free agency part just popped out of that and the system of doing one team a day or so has worked pretty well. I will do it until I get down to all 32 teams (11 to go) and then I will post the full spreadsheet. Where I will need the most help is identifying the guys who we should go after who are released as cap casualties. That part will get messy. 

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1 hour ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Numbers confuse Mikey unless they are on currency

He’s set in his ways, but he’s not dumb. He did graduate from Dartmouth and Harvard Law School back when that actually meant something. 

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Vikings

 

Not much here. They have a solid safety available but I am not even listing him. 

 

G Age Starts 2020/Career Notes   Overall Pass Block Run Block Snaps
Dozier-Vikings 30 16/27       44.6 36.7 52.3 1,083

 

T Age Starts 2020/Career Notes   Overall Pass Block Run Block Snaps
Hill-Vikings 29 1/17       72.4 70.2 69.1 121

 

DL Age Starts 2020/Career stats Notes Overall Run D Pass Rush Coverage Snaps
Johnson-Vikings 27 16/20 44t-3tfl-2h-1.5s     35.3 33.3 50.7 59.8 654
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Not entirely realistic but this mock offseason on fanspeak was fun

https://fanspeak.com/mtc/

ROSTER
SIGNED PLAYERS
Name Position Cap Hit
Brandon Wilson S 1,600,000
William Jackson III CB 8,400,000
Carl Lawson EDGE 8,400,000
Samaje Perine RB 1,000,000
Joe Thuney G 9,100,000
Brandon Allen QB 2,000,000
Chris Conley WR 3,375,000
Shelby Harris DL 2,400,000
Vic Beasley LB 1,600,000
Kyle Rudolph TE 2,000,000
Taylor Moton OT 9,800,000
Ronald Darby CB 2,400,000
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12 hours ago, MichaelWeston said:

Vikings

 

Not much here. They have a solid safety available but I am not even listing him. 

 

G Age Starts 2020/Career Notes   Overall Pass Block Run Block Snaps
Dozier-Vikings 30 16/27       44.6 36.7 52.3 1,083

 

T Age Starts 2020/Career Notes   Overall Pass Block Run Block Snaps
Hill-Vikings 29 1/17       72.4 70.2 69.1 121

 

DL Age Starts 2020/Career stats Notes Overall Run D Pass Rush Coverage Snaps
Johnson-Vikings 27 16/20 44t-3tfl-2h-1.5s     35.3 33.3 50.7 59.8 654

We took 2 DB's from them last year lol

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11 hours ago, MichaelWeston said:

Not entirely realistic but this mock offseason on fanspeak was fun

https://fanspeak.com/mtc/

ROSTER
SIGNED PLAYERS
Name Position Cap Hit
Brandon Wilson S 1,600,000
William Jackson III CB 8,400,000
Carl Lawson EDGE 8,400,000
Samaje Perine RB 1,000,000
Joe Thuney G 9,100,000
Brandon Allen QB 2,000,000
Chris Conley WR 3,375,000
Shelby Harris DL 2,400,000
Vic Beasley LB 1,600,000
Kyle Rudolph TE 2,000,000
Taylor Moton OT 9,800,000
Ronald Darby CB 2,400,000

Did another one....Got Atkins and Hart back at reduced deals. Think the Kyle Rudolph thing could actually work. Got Scherff and Williams for the line which seems more and more realistic. 

 

Name Position Cap Hit
Geno Atkins DL 1,500,000
Bobby Hart OT 2,000,000
Brandon Wilson S 1,312,500
William Jackson III CB 7,700,000
Margus Hunt DL 1,000,000
Carl Lawson EDGE 7,700,000
Samaje Perine RB 1,000,000
Chris Conley WR 2,475,000
Shelby Harris DL 1,200,000
Kyle Rudolph TE 1,750,000
Daryl Williams G 7,000,000
Brandon Allen QB 1,600,000
Brandon Scherff G 11,250,000
Marquise Goodwin WR 1,000,000
Tyus Bowser EDGE 2,800,000
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57 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

Did another one....Got Atkins and Hart back at reduced deals. Think the Kyle Rudolph thing could actually work. Got Scherff and Williams for the line which seems more and more realistic. 

 

Name Position Cap Hit
Geno Atkins DL 1,500,000
Bobby Hart OT 2,000,000
Brandon Wilson S 1,312,500
William Jackson III CB 7,700,000
Margus Hunt DL 1,000,000
Carl Lawson EDGE 7,700,000
Samaje Perine RB 1,000,000
Chris Conley WR 2,475,000
Shelby Harris DL 1,200,000
Kyle Rudolph TE 1,750,000
Daryl Williams G 7,000,000
Brandon Allen QB 1,600,000
Brandon Scherff G 11,250,000
Marquise Goodwin WR 1,000,000
Tyus Bowser EDGE 2,800,000

Read where Lawson signing will be around 4yrs 50mil..12.5 a yr.

Jackson 3yrs 40mil..13.3 a year..

 

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22 minutes ago, claptonrocks said:

Read where Lawson signing will be around 4yrs 50mil..12.5 a yr.

Jackson 3yrs 40mil..13.3 a year..

 

They backload the deals so I think I got them around 11 and 13. I am not sure the site is even worth it. Fun though

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1 hour ago, MichaelWeston said:

They backload the deals so I think I got them around 11 and 13. I am not sure the site is even worth it. Fun though

I appreciate the effort you put into your posts..

Great job!

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32 minutes ago, snarkster said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-top-100-free-agents

 

Projected Bengals signings:

16. (CB) William Jackson lll (re-sign)

27 (DE) Carl Lawson (Re-sign)

34. (QB) Cam Newton (NE)

48. (TE) Gerald Everett (Rams)

* Not seeing Newton. 

* I'd be fine with Jackson, Lawson & Everett. 

* I'll be pretty torqued if they come out of FA without at least one (preferably two) solid starter-level adds from among OG, another Edge, DT, WR, another CB

 

[RANDOM NOTE] If they draft Sewell/Slater and they can find a starting RT-type later in the Draft/FA. I wouldn't hate moving Williams inside (he might though)

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1 hour ago, snarkster said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-top-100-free-agents

 

Projected Bengals signings:

16. (CB) William Jackson lll (re-sign)

27 (DE) Carl Lawson (Re-sign)

34. (QB) Cam Newton (NE)

48. (TE) Gerald Everett (Rams)

 

 

-

 

This has been out for awhile. Obviously highly speculative (as all things like this are). Interesting read though.

 

If their predicted prices hold, I am really starting to doubt the Bengals keep both Jackson and Lawson and can see Jackson being the one to leave (or not be as sought after by the Bengals of the two). I agree, I cannot imagine the Bengals making the unlikely (and in my opinion stupid) signing of Newton. Gerald Everett would definitely be a guy I'd be looking at though.  

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1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

I could see the Bengals signing Jackson and cutting Waynes. Trae has a 16 mil cap number and hasn't done anything to earn it. The team saves 6 mil of cap space and 11 mil in cash by releasing or trading him. 

I don't think they would pay him that contract and cut him before they ever see him play. 

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Washington Football Team

 

Brandon Scherff might just be the guy we go after the most. Darby seems interesting. 

 

G Age Starts 2020/Career Notes   Overall Pass Block Run Block Snaps
Scherff-Team 29 13/78       86.3 82.5 82.6 929

 

T Age Starts 2020/Career Notes   Overall Pass Block Run Block Snaps
Sharpe-Team 25 2/6       50.9 57.4 51.5 184

 

DE/Edge Age Starts 2020/Career stats Notes Overall Run D Pass Rush Coverage Snaps
Kerrigan-Team 33 0/4 9t-1tfl     59.3 45.6 68.8 59.5 425
Anderson-Team 26 1/141 17t-5tfl-6h-5.5s     49.6 59.6 45.6 60.4 146

 

CB Age Starts 2020/Career stats Notes Overall Run D Pass Rush Coverage Snaps
Darby-Team 27 16/72 55t-1tfl-16pd     69.8 70.3 58.5 68.2 1073
Moreau-Team 27 1/18 9t-2int-3pd     64.7 57.6 52.6 65.9 181
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9 hours ago, MichaelWeston said:

I don't think they would pay him that contract and cut him before they ever see him play. 

 

They wouldn't do it before his first season. But now, after he missed a whole year with what was supposed to be a shorter term injury, they may prefer to keep WJ3 over Waynes. The team could afford to pay both but I doubt they do. Personally, I'd choose Jackson over Waynes.

 

Scherff is unlikely to become a free agent, WFT wants him back and has lots of cap room. 

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38 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Scherff is unlikely to become a free agent, WFT wants him back and has lots of cap room. 

I was wondering about that. He fits our system well. Curious who the free agents are that people are expecting to be on the market. 

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3 hours ago, sparky151 said:

 

They wouldn't do it before his first season. But now, after he missed a whole year with what was supposed to be a shorter term injury, they may prefer to keep WJ3 over Waynes. The team could afford to pay both but I doubt they do. Personally, I'd choose Jackson over Waynes.

 

Scherff is unlikely to become a free agent, WFT wants him back and has lots of cap room. 

 

This is wildly unlikely. I would be beyond shocked if they cut Waynes. They'd have to take a $10 million dead cap hit on their 2021 numbers to get rid of a player they just signed last year who missed the season due to injury. In your scenario the cap hit to cut Waynes and sign Jackson would be $10 million plus Jackson's salary so...likely in the neighborhood $20-22 million. Makes no sense whatsoever.

 

I'm also not sure why you think it was short term injury. He tore his pectoral muscle and had surgery. It's the very same injury that cost WJIII his 2016 season. There was speculation at the time of the injury that Waynes may have been good to go in mid to late November but, at that point the season was lost and they probably shelved him to avoid any further issue similar to what they did with Mixon and Williams. No point risking these guys in meaningless games.  

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If they keep Waynes, his cap hit for 2021 and 2022 is 16 million each year. If they cut or trade him they take his remaining signing bonus on the cap but save his 11 mil salary each year for a net savings on the cap of 6 mil in 2021 and 16 mil in 2022. So the question is how easily they could replace Waynes.  In 2020 free agency they had to overpay him to get him to sign. This year there will likely be more and better players available than last due to the declining cap. Better players than Trae will sign for less than 14 mil per.

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On 2/2/2021 at 5:17 PM, Jason said:

He’s set in his ways, but he’s not dumb. He did graduate from Dartmouth and Harvard Law School back when that actually meant something. 

 

 

You mean rich & well-connected parents?

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On 2/2/2021 at 3:30 PM, HavePityPlease said:

 

Mikey considered hiring him but then he saw all those colours and figured he's a "hippie dippie" on the "wacky tobaccy".  Can't have that.  ;)

 

 

Plus I don't think he's related to anyone in the building, the most important qualification. 

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5 hours ago, sparky151 said:

If they keep Waynes, his cap hit for 2021 and 2022 is 16 million each year. If they cut or trade him they take his remaining signing bonus on the cap but save his 11 mil salary each year for a net savings on the cap of 6 mil in 2021 and 16 mil in 2022. So the question is how easily they could replace Waynes.  In 2020 free agency they had to overpay him to get him to sign. This year there will likely be more and better players available than last due to the declining cap. Better players than Trae will sign for less than 14 mil per.

 

Before I break this down, the Bengals overpaid like a mofo for Waynes. He's set to be the highest paid player on the team this year. That's flipping ludicrous. It was a bad signing but don't compound that by making an equally bad cap move. 

 

One way or another, Waynes is going to eat a minimum of $10 million of cap space in 2021. Wet is wet.

 

In the scenario you laid out with cutting Waynes and re-signing WJIII (who I am a fan of) to say a $10 million contract (not sure if that's viable but this is for illustration purposes). Your total cap hit is $20 million. You have WJIII but nothing else.

 

I'd sooner see them keep Waynes and re-sign WJII for that same $10 million. Your total cap hit is $26 million and you have both Waynes and WJII for next season. Which scenario is better? One starter for $20 million or two starters for $26 million?!? At that point you have Waynes, Phillips and Jackson as your top 3 CBs in 2021.

 

In your scenario, you now need to replace Waynes for $6 million. Who are you signing for $6 million at CB that has the same potential?   

 

My big issue is if he's already costing you $10 million on the cap, you might as well keep him and see how it goes. If it works out and Waynes plays well, he earns that $16 million the following year and you've still got two starting corners in 2022. If it doesn't, you cut him in 2022 and only absorb a $5 million cap hit.

 

Cutting Waynes also just creates yet another need for the team when they already have a bag full of needs at other positions.

 

At the end of the day, If you're looking for cap space, Geno Atkins, Gio Bernard, CJ Uzomah and Bobby Hart make WAY better sense from a cap perspective and for that matter, a potential impact perspective, to cut.

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