Tackles

[whodey1971]

Just a random thought. As I was looking at potential defensive free agents, I could not help but think "Tackles" are among the most over-rated statistics in football. My rationale - I would rather have players who know what it takes to hold other teams to "3 and out" than to have players from teams that amass big tackle numbers because they are on the field all the time...with many opportunities to make tackles. I put Landon Johnson in this category. As much as I like his effort and ability to play multiple positions, I believe his tackle totals are more a factor of him being on the field more plays than we would like the defense to play.

[USN Bengal]

[quote name='whodey1971' post='623840' date='Jan 17 2008, 07:57 AM']Just a random thought. As I was looking at potential defensive free agents, I could not help but think "Tackles" are among the most over-rated statistics in football. My rationale - I would rather have players who know what it takes to hold other teams to "3 and out" than to have players from teams that amass big tackle numbers because they are on the field all the time...with many opportunities to make tackles. I put Landon Johnson in this category. As much as I like his effort and ability to play multiple positions, I believe his tackle totals are more a factor of him being on the field more plays than we would like the defense to play.[/quote]

:hmm:

I see your point, but it ALSO means that the tackler was always around the ball making plays, instead of whiffing and being out of position. For instance, Ray Lewis perennially leads the rats in tackles... is that misleading?
Watching film is the only true way to judge a player... seeing how they got those stats.

[Jason]

I think a more telling statistic would be Missed Tackles.

[|SF2|]

Leading one of the worst defensive teams in tackles isn't typically an indicator of a player's worth. He could just be the guy behind a terrible defensive lineman that every team exploits. Tackling after a 5 yard gain time and time again is nothing to brag about. Not saying this is Landon, just making a point. Film is the only way to tell if the guy is a good player. Does he shed blocks, move to the point of attack, stay in position etc..

Keep in mind, every team has a player that leads the team in tackles... including the Dolphins and Falcons.

Some players are so good, the other team avoids them and exploits the weaker players. That would reduce their tackles.

USN is correct. Film is the best judge. That and ask the offensive linemen who the best defensive players are. They know.

[Gordon Wood]

Tackles are very misleading. There are a number of things that make them unreliable some of which have already been mentioned. In addition, different statisticians register Tackles and assists differently. Some always give one guy the tackle and the next guy an assist, some give both assists.

What matters most with tackles isnt how many a guy makes, but where they are made. LBs and safeties usually lead teams in tackles for a reason. They have opportunities to make tackles downfield that DL dont. Keep this in mind. An LB who sucks in coverage and as a consequence gives up numerous completions probably is there to make the tackle and thus may have 4 or 5 tackles a game 5 -10 yds downfield. These tackles have to be made of course, but they arent really wins for the D. LBs in particular can fool you in this way. To me any LB tackle made more than 3 yds downfield is an indication that the O had success.

If you want to see how effective an LB has actually been in a game look up the ydg. gained before each tackle they made, add it up, and divide it by the total number of tackles. If its not between 3-4 yds per tackle then the LB wasnt really very effective.

[|Tigers Johnson|]

The feeling I always get from the Bengals in this regard is:

It always seems like teams such as the Steelers are coming up and punishing people when they tackle them, and teams such as the Bengals are always trying to hang on for dear life to get a guy down before he gains another yard......just a feeling I get, nothing more nothing less.

Maybe that is what Marvin means when he says the defense needs an identity....

[Oldcat]

If you don't have any tackles, you will get a lot of penalties for not enough men on the offensive line.

[Rick]

[quote name='Jason' post='623848' date='Jan 17 2008, 08:33 AM']I think a more telling statistic would be Missed Tackles.[/quote]

I think the best telling statistic would be the percent of tackles made by a player compared to the total number of tackles made by the entire defense during the season.

I think the same thing would hold true with special teams tackles, too.

[big_dish]

[quote name='Tigers Johnson' post='624035' date='Jan 17 2008, 04:28 PM']The feeling I always get from the Bengals in this regard is:

It always seems like teams such as the Steelers are coming up and punishing people when they tackle them, and teams such as [b]the Bengals are always trying to hang on for dear life to get a guy down before he gains another yard.[/b].....just a feeling I get, nothing more nothing less.

Maybe that is what Marvin means when he says the defense needs an identity....[/quote]


I feel like this every game, and have for years and years... probably 15-16 years actually.... its like a bad dream, same with the cornerbacks obligatory 27 yard cushion on 3rd and 25 with the game on the line..

[fredtoast]

[quote name='Gordon Wood' post='624023' date='Jan 17 2008, 04:10 PM']Tackles are very misleading. There are a number of things that make them unreliable some of which have already been mentioned. In addition, different statisticians register Tackles and assists differently. Some always give one guy the tackle and the next guy an assist, some give both assists.

What matters most with tackles isnt how many a guy makes, but where they are made. LBs and safeties usually lead teams in tackles for a reason. They have opportunities to make tackles downfield that DL dont. Keep this in mind. An LB who sucks in coverage and as a consequence gives up numerous completions probably is there to make the tackle and thus may have 4 or 5 tackles a game 5 -10 yds downfield. These tackles have to be made of course, but they arent really wins for the D. LBs in particular can fool you in this way. To me any LB tackle made more than 3 yds downfield is an indication that the O had success.

If you want to see how effective an LB has actually been in a game look up the ydg. gained before each tackle they made, add it up, and divide it by the total number of tackles. If its not between 3-4 yds per tackle then the LB wasnt really very effective.[/quote]

Using this formula would penalize a player for making a TD saving tackle downfield.

I understand what you are trying to say, but this formula would not work.

As for tackles being an overrated stat, all I know is that players that get blocked don't make tackles. The league leaders in tackles are usually pretty damn good football players.

[sois]

The most overrated stat to me is "when you run the ball 30 times (or whatever the magic number is), you win".

If you are winning, you are going to run the ball more and run out the clock. That adds to the total. What you did to get the lead in the first place is important.

[|Lucid|]

All statistics are misleading, and overrated if you look at them in a vacuum and try to draw conclusions.

Any statistic needs to be looked at in context for it have any meaning. The more variables, situations and other statistics you add to the picture the more accurate any conclusion or prediction becomes.

Just like people can mislead you by putting a stat out of context, you can mislead yourself by taking them out of contet to support your own beliefs.

Stats are just tools, they must be used properly to be of value, and rarely does that include a debate.

[Oldcat]

[quote name='Lucid' post='624504' date='Jan 18 2008, 01:38 PM']All statistics are misleading, and overrated if you look at them in a vacuum and try to draw conclusions.

Any statistic needs to be looked at in context for it have any meaning. The more variables, situations and other statistics you add to the picture the more accurate any conclusion or prediction becomes.

Just like people can mislead you by putting a stat out of context, you can mislead yourself by taking them out of contet to support your own beliefs.

Stats are just tools, they must be used properly to be of value, and rarely does that include a debate.[/quote]

Don't you go getting all reasonable about this!

This is an internet message board, after all.

[Cricket]

[quote name='Tigers Johnson' post='624035' date='Jan 17 2008, 04:28 PM']The feeling I always get from the Bengals in this regard is:

It always seems like teams such as the [b]Steelers are coming up and punishing people when they tackle them, and teams such as the Bengals are always trying to hang on for dear life to get a guy down before he gains another yard.[/b].....just a feeling I get, nothing more nothing less.

Maybe that is what Marvin means when he says the defense needs an identity....[/quote]


...good defenders/tacklers go [b]through [/b]the ball carrier to make the tackle...

...the Bengals tend to go [b]to[/b] the ball carrier and then attempt to make the tackle...


...big difference...

[-GoBengals-]

[quote name='Tigers Johnson' post='624035' date='Jan 17 2008, 04:28 PM']The feeling I always get from the Bengals in this regard is:

It always seems like teams such as the Steelers are coming up and punishing people when they tackle them, and teams such as the Bengals are always trying to hang on for dear life to get a guy down before he gains another yard......just a feeling I get, nothing more nothing less.

Maybe that is what Marvin means when he says the defense needs an identity....[/quote]


likely the first and perhaps last thing we will ever agree on.... the difference in toughness and attitude between the steelers players and our is a complete 180. i think much of it comes from being good and seeing success, where as we have had change, adversity and injury after injusry and setback after setback. EVERY steeler game i watch, they make tackles and im wondering where the flag is for the late hit, there is always SOMEONE "around" for each tackle, that lands on just early enough not to get flagged, they do truely "punish" players all game in attempts to gain a mental and physical edge, carsons knee, that other QB's leg, and ricky williams getting stomped on. but they werent flagged for any of it, cause its their norm, its how they play. let a bengal stomp on a player on the ground, see how many flags hit the air. the attitude from defense comes from the LB core, and we went from pollack thurman land and brooks to schlegal jones and mays/LJ y-i-k-e-s... we have a hard enough time learning roles with the new guy starting this week ot next week to concern ourselves with the proper mentality and attitude on the field, marvin is well aware of the attitude needed, he did well with it in DC and in baltimore, but you have to complete steps 1 and 2 before getting to 3, and we are in our 3rd try to complete step 1, "get talented personnel on the field" once we do that we can get step 2 "ensure everyone knows their role and responsabilities" and we can finally "kick someones ass"

heres to completing step 1:

[Gordon Wood]

[quote name='fredtoast' post='624397' date='Jan 18 2008, 03:25 PM']Using this formula would penalize a player for making a TD saving tackle downfield.

I understand what you are trying to say, but this formula would not work.

As for tackles being an overrated stat, all I know is that players that get blocked don't make tackles. The league leaders in tackles are usually pretty damn good football players.[/quote]

How is a TD saving tackle way down field a win for the defense. Yes, its better than the TD, but it still represents a failure by the D to do their jobs well.

[|Lucid|]

[quote name='Gordon Wood' post='624797' date='Jan 19 2008, 01:15 PM']How is a TD saving tackle way down field a win for the defense. Yes, its better than the TD, but it still represents a failure by the D to do their jobs well.[/quote]

The formula addresses a personal stat, not a team stat. The guy making the TD savingn tackle isn't necessarily to blame for the D's failure as a whole.

[The Ghost of Chucky B.]

I was always a fan of - "well, Johnny Ballplayer is a career .320 hitter with runners in scoring position who's last
names begin and end with the letter "S" during day games on the 2nd tuesday of every month."

Yes, a little absurd but not too far fetched if you listen to broadcasts (for any sport for that matter).

Ever wonder what kind of interns or whatever at ESPN come up with this shit?

[Gordon Wood]

[quote name='Lucid' post='624802' date='Jan 19 2008, 02:28 PM']The formula addresses a personal stat, not a team stat. The guy making the TD savingn tackle isn't necessarily to blame for the D's failure as a whole.[/quote]

I take your point -- sometimes of course it is that guys fault (safety getting over late in coverage runs a guy down, corner juked out of his socks runs down reciever, LB recovers from blown assignment catches back just before he breaks clear) -- but the play in and of itself is not a result of great defensive play by any of the 11 guys on the field.

The bigger point is how many of these does any player get in a season? I cant imagine it being enough to nullify the formula for measuring the quality of a players tackle.

[fredtoast]

[quote name='Gordon Wood' post='624952' date='Jan 19 2008, 11:14 PM']I take your point -- sometimes of course it is that guys fault (safety getting over late in coverage runs a guy down, corner juked out of his socks runs down reciever, LB recovers from blown assignment catches back just before he breaks clear) -- but the play in and of itself is not a result of great defensive play by any of the 11 guys on the field.

The bigger point is how many of these does any player get in a season? I cant imagine it being enough to nullify the formula for measuring the quality of a players tackle.[/quote]

But what about a great pursuit LB or DE that gets lots of tackles on the opposit side of the field from where he plays? That is a great defender that would be penalized for making more tackles downfield.

It just doesn't work. If you are going to go to the trouble of analyzing every play that closeley then instead of keeping tackle stats you could just grade each player on each play. That is the way real scouts do it. The don't count stats, they make a grade on each play. It is possible for a player to not be graded highly even if he gets statistical credit for something like a sack or a fumble recovery.

[Gordon Wood]

[quote name='fredtoast' post='625288' date='Jan 21 2008, 11:36 AM']But what about a great pursuit LB or DE that gets lots of tackles on the opposit side of the field from where he plays? That is a great defender that would be penalized for making more tackles downfield.

It just doesn't work. If you are going to go to the trouble of analyzing every play that closeley then instead of keeping tackle stats you could just grade each player on each play. That is the way real scouts do it. The don't count stats, they make a grade on each play. It is possible for a player to not be graded highly even if he gets statistical credit for something like a sack or a fumble recovery.[/quote]

As long as the tackles made by the LB or DE stopped the ball carrier for less than a 4 yd gain they would get credit. Pursuit that makes a tackle for more than that isnt really that great anyway.

I would agree that grading each player on each play is the way to go. Of course this isnt going to happen. The point of my posts isnt that there is a more practical way for tackle stats to be reported, but that tackle stats are misleading Because they dont take the factors I think are important into account. Your points about teams and scouts grading players rather than just looking at the stats makes the point about tackle stats being misleading. I guarantee you that one of the things they grade defensive players on is where their tackles were made -- they dont get marked down for making tackles downfield, they just dont receive credit for making a good play.

[fredtoast]

[quote name='Gordon Wood' post='625666' date='Jan 22 2008, 12:15 PM']As long as the tackles made by the LB or DE stopped the ball carrier for less than a 4 yd gain they would get credit. Pursuit that makes a tackle for more than that isnt really that great anyway.

I guarantee you that one of the things they grade defensive players on is where their tackles were made -- they dont get marked down for making tackles downfield, they just dont receive credit for making a good play.[/quote]

Actually if a player comes from the opposit side of the field and runs down a player after a long gain that is a tremendous play.

I agree that tackle stats can be misleading, but overall the players that make the most tackles are the best players. Players that get blocked don't make tackles at the line of scrimmage or down the field. They just don't make a lot of tackles period.