MLB Amateur Draft

[#22]

Granted, they should draft based on need, but who would you be happiest to see them land?

[u]My top 5 realistic picks:[/u]
1.) Grant Green, SS. USC Junior hits for average and can steal bases. Also [i]lists Pete Rose as his sports hero[/i], according to USC's website.
2.) Alex White, RHP. Just watched a few innings of his stuff on ESPN the other day. Looks like a good prospect with a very good slider.
3.) Mike Minor, LHP. Saw this kid do some relief work his Freshman year at Vandy. A little worried by the propensity to give up Homers, but he gets a lot of Ks, too.
4.) Aaron Crow, RHP. Not sure that he will fall to us, but I think they should try to have some kind of a deal in place before they pick him, if they do.
5.) Tyler Matzek, LHP. Great Talent, but I don't trust highschool kids.

[CTA513]

I'll be happy if they go with the best player available again instead of trying to reach for a need.


OR


Hold all the other organizations hostage until Stephen Strasburg drops to them.

[|Bengal Migration|]

I thought this was a good read...

[quote]Risky business: Strasburg no sure thing
By Jim Caple
ESPN.com

After much hype, the Washington Nationals will choose Stephen Strasburg with the first pick in next week's amateur draft. The question is: Should they?

Don't get me wrong. Strasburg's fastball reaches 100 mph, his curveball might be just as impressive, he struck out nearly two batters per inning at San Diego State (23 in one game) and almost everyone who has seen him says he's going to be a very, very special pitcher in the majors.

"You're talking about one of the best pitching prospects in a long, long time," longtime baseball executive Sandy Alderson said. "We won't push him unreasonably, but then again, we won't hesitate to have him around as soon as he's ready."

Whoops. My bad. Alderson didn't say that about Strasburg; he said it about Todd Van Poppel nearly two decades ago when he was Oakland's general manager. The Athletics drafted Van Poppel in 1990 and the kid was supposed to be baseball's next great starting pitcher. In fact, the Athletics supposedly pulled off what one writer said "may have been the greatest pitching draft in history" by picking Van Poppel, Don Peters, David Zancanaro and Kirk Dressendorfer. Baseball America put them on its cover and called them the "Four Aces." Well, it didn't quite work out that way. Van Poppel went 40-52 with a 5.58 ERA in his career, Dressendorfer pitched in only seven big league games, and the other two never even reached the majors.

OK, a lot can go wrong with high school pitchers. But unlike Van Poppel, Strasburg is a college pitcher, which changes the equation significantly. Here is what Reds special assistant Scott Nethery says about Strasburg: "Who knows how he'll end up, but instead of people trying to compare him to different pitchers, one day, people might be comparing everyone to him. Yeah, he's that good."

Oops, I did it again. Nethery said that about Mark Prior, not Strasburg. He was right, though. Prior was very, very good (18-6, 2.43 ERA in 2003, his first full season). Then he got hurt. And then got hurt again. And again. And now, it's been three years since he has pitched in the majors.

That's the thing about the draft hype surrounding Strasburg (and other top picks). He is unquestionably a great young pitching prospect. And who knows, maybe he'll wind up with a plaque on the walls of Cooperstown. But he could also simply wind up standing in the line at Cooperstown with the rest of us. Simply put, a lot can happen between the draft and the end of a career, much of it disappointing.

After all, it's hard enough deciding whether your daughter should go to the prom with some young man, let alone whether that same young man will justify a $10.5 million contract in five years.

Wait, did I say $10.5 million? That's the amount Prior received eight years ago. Strasburg's "advisor," Scott Boras, has floated talk of a $50 million contract along the lines of what Daisuke Matsuzaka received before the 2007 season. It's easy to see why, because the two share similar circumstances. Like Dice-K, Strasburg is a highly prized pitcher whose leverage is limited because he can negotiate only with one team but is not required to sign. He is also younger with better velocity. If Dice-K could get $50 million, then why not Strasburg?

That's some of the reasoning Boras will be using. (Along with the Jedi mind trick "This is the amount you want to offer.") The Nationals can counter that Japanese baseball is far superior to college baseball and a better barometer of major league success. Especially when compared to drafting pitchers.

Despite the endless hype and back-patting, the draft in any sport is a risk. But baseball's draft is especially risky when teams use high draft picks on pitchers. Since the draft began (in 1965) through 1998, 77 pitchers and 92 position players were chosen with the first five picks (Danny Goodwin was selected twice). Of those 77 pitchers, only 12 have won as many as 100 games. Which means roughly 15.6 percent of top picks became solid pitchers for a reasonable amount of time. Position players taken in the top five, meanwhile, have been more than twice as likely to be productive major leaguers (29 of 92, 31.5 percent). (For more details, see this chart.)

The odds are stacked against a No.1 pitcher's having a long and successful career. Of the 13 pitchers who have gone No. 1, Mike Moore won the most games, but he had a losing record (161-176) while Andy Benes (155-139), Tim Belcher (146-140), Floyd Bannister (133-146) and Kris Benson (61-74) are the best of the rest (it's far too early to know what David Price will do). Yes, some of those guys had good seasons, but none came close to turning around a franchise. Certainly, none compares to position-player No. 1 picks such as Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Darryl Strawberry and Harold Baines.

No. 2 picks on pitchers have fared a little better (Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Mark Mulder, Bill Swift, J.R. Richard) but there are flops (Mike Lentz) and flameouts (Prior) as well. And it doesn't improve much as you go down the draft. Roughly half the pitchers chosen with the first five picks failed to win as many 20 games. I don't mean 20 games in a season. I mean 20 games in an entire career.

Why is that? Is it more difficult to scout pitchers, or do the waves from radar guns scramble a scout's brain?

"Number one, the rate of injury is a major factor, but I don't think anyone has an answer," Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik said. "Pitchers have a tendency to get hurt. Whether they're 21-year-old college guys or 17-year-old high school kids, they get hurt. And pitchers get hurt at a greater rate than anyone. That's just pitching. And the catch is, you can't live without them."

No, you can't, which is why teams draft disproportionately more pitchers than position players (since 1999, 24 pitchers versus 26 hitters in the first five picks, see chart to the right). But it was one thing to expend a high first-round pick on a pitcher when such players still were relatively cheap to sign. When signing bonuses soared in the 1990s, a bad choice not only represented an opportunity lost but also carried a real economic cost. And if Boras represents the player, it can cost you time and aggravation, as well.

Imagine a root canal without Novocain that drags on for months and where the dentist takes frequent breaks to tell reporters that the whole problem is you don't floss enough and which only ends when you finally agree to pay him a staggering amount of money to let you leave the office.

People talk about Strasburg's being ready to step immediately into the starting rotation, but if Boras' history is any indication, the agent will hold him out until he gets the price he wants. That won't be $50 million, but it could be $20 million. As a college junior, Strasburg has until Aug. 15 to sign. If he doesn't sign, he would go back into the draft next year, and the process would start all over again.

With the history of top pitching picks, it might be wiser to avoid them all together in the first two rounds and concentrate your top picks on position players, who have a higher chance of paying off big in the early rounds, and use your later picks to select a quantity of pitchers. But given the odds against all first-rounders -- remember, only about one-third of the position players drafted in the top five went on to long, productive careers -- it's tempting not to invest much in them, either. Unfortunately, teams can't trade draft picks in baseball, so you have to choose someone.

And it's important to remember that the draft does produce talent, and the right picks can turn around a franchise, as the Rays and Brewers can attest (while Zduriencik was Milwaukee's scouting director, he drafted Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun with top-10 picks). Conversely, multiple bad drafts in a row can leave a team stuck in quicksand, as has been the case with the Mariners.

If Strasburg is as good as described and if he doesn't get hurt and if he develops as projected, he will be a bargain at $20 million, a bargain at even more than that. In addition to his talent, one thing in his favor is the conservative way San Diego State coach Tony Gwynn used him, reducing the injury risk somewhat (pitching once a week, Strasburg pitched 109 innings; compare that to Kris Benson, who pitched 190 innings between college and the Olympics the year Pittsburgh drafted him No. 1 overall). I certainly hope the best for Strasburg. But based strictly on the history of top first-rounders, I would bet against his having the career the hype implies is inevitable. And if Strasburg goes the way of the majority of top picks, he'll be very expensive and the entire process may not seem worth it.

The Twins faced the same sort of question in 2001 when they had the first pick in the draft. Most people said Prior was the best player available, the sort of pitcher who could reach the majors very quickly and make an instant impact. That was true. Prior was in the majors a year later and helped pitch the Cubs to within five outs of their first World Series since 1945.

But Prior hasn't helped the Cubs much in the past five years, and his signing also came at a high cost. He received a record $10.5 million contract, an amount the budget-minded Twins decided would be too costly for them. So, weathering criticism that they were simply being cheap, they passed on Prior and picked a hometown position player instead.

With his two batting titles already, fans long ago stopped criticizing catcher Joe Mauer as a cheap pick.

Jim Caple is a senior writer for ESPN.com.[/quote]

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='CTA513' post='781113' date='Jun 8 2009, 05:05 PM']I'll be happy if they go with the best player available again instead of trying to reach for a need.


OR


Hold all the other organizations hostage until Stephen Strasburg drops to them.

[/quote]


Drafting for a need isnt really smart because in 2-4 years when hte guy actually gets called up to the big leagues (if he ever does) we could have completely different needs.

[Go Tory Go!]

[quote name='CJandRudiJ' post='781135' date='Jun 8 2009, 07:42 PM']Drafting for a need isnt really smart because in 2-4 years when hte guy actually gets called up to the big leagues (if he ever does) we could have completely different needs.[/quote]

Normally true, unless you have a young player at a certain position, and you draft a college graduate who's said to already be a very polished hitter, and you can't move him to a different position because they both are already at the easiest position in the field.

In other words, they shouldn't be drafting anyone who is unathletic enough that they played 1B in college.

[Go Tory Go!]

[quote name='#22' post='781112' date='Jun 8 2009, 04:58 PM']Granted, they should draft based on need, but who would you be happiest to see them land?

[u]My top 5 realistic picks:[/u]
1.) Grant Green, SS. USC Junior hits for average and can steal bases. Also [i]lists Pete Rose as his sports hero[/i], according to USC's website.[/quote]

Boooo. Someone who names Pete Rose as his hero is most likely a scrappy player who relies on effort and elbow grease to get by - the next David Eckstein can get fucked. Not what I want in the first round; I want someone with talent and huge upside, and we'll get the scrappy little shits, the Rosales's and Freels, in the later rounds (or better yet, never). Also, idolizing Pete Rose suggests a disregard for character. Let's face it - Pete Rose is a shitbag. I level the same charge against Yonder Alonso, who idolizes an even bigger shitbag in A-Roid.

Also, his bourgeois first name disgusts me.

[BengalRep85-9]

They've had the guy in charge of putting together the reds draft on fs ohio recently and he was going on and on about left handed pitching for this draft.
Maybe this means they'll draft a lefty with the first pick, or they'll get multiple lefties in the following rounds after drafting Crow if he falls to us

[#22]

Yeah, that guy was laughably socially retarded, but I guess he knows what he's doing.

[Jason]

In the baseball draft, given how few draft picks ever make it to the big leagues, and how many years it usually takes, you absolutely HAVE to take the best player available. Anything else would be foolish.

That said, I would love to see them get 1 or 2 left handed starting pitchers.

[CTA513]

[quote name='Jason' post='781176' date='Jun 8 2009, 09:49 PM'][b]In the baseball draft, given how few draft picks ever make it to the big leagues, and how many years it usually takes, you absolutely HAVE to take the best player available. Anything else would be foolish.[/b]

That said, I would love to see them get 1 or 2 left handed starting pitchers.[/quote]

Yeah but we have seen teams pass on better players before because they didn't want to put out the money to sign them.

[#22]

oh, like any pick that Jim Bowden's ever made?

[ThurmanMunster]

[quote name='Go Tory Go!' post='781143' date='Jun 8 2009, 07:40 PM']Boooo. Someone who names Pete Rose as his hero is most likely a scrappy player who relies on effort and elbow grease to get by - the next David Eckstein can get fucked. Not what I want in the first round; I want someone with talent and huge upside, and we'll get the scrappy little shits, the Rosales's and Freels, in the later rounds (or better yet, never). Also, idolizing Pete Rose suggests a disregard for character. Let's face it - Pete Rose is a shitbag. I level the same charge against Yonder Alonso, who idolizes an even bigger shitbag in A-Roid.

Also, his bourgeois first name disgusts me.[/quote]

lmao. johnny bench was and still is a WAY bigger tool than pete rose ever was. have you ever even actually met any of these guys? your post pretty much blows a massive cock this time and odds are you have never met any of these guys and your unintelligent opinion comes from the medias portrayal and who they love and blast.

[ThurmanMunster]

I want the Reds to take one of:

Aaron Crow
Tanner Scheppers
Kyle Gibson
Zach Wheeler





btw grant green isnt even considered a top 10 prospect by the most scouts and sites ive read. i wasnt impressed with him either for a top 8 pick.

[Hooky]

I know absolutely nothing about any of these prospects. As far as position, they shouldn't reach, but they need an every day 3rd baseman. There's a lot to be said for consistency/solidarity at that position. Having a swinging door on the corner is going to hurt them in the long run. Edwin is not the answer, Hairston and Rosales are utility and their flexibility is too valuable to plant them at any position.

[#22]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='781204' date='Jun 9 2009, 02:06 AM']I want the Reds to take one of:

Aaron Crow
Tanner Scheppers
Kyle Gibson
Zach Wheeler





btw grant green isnt even considered a top 10 prospect by the most scouts and sites ive read. i wasnt impressed with him either for a top 8 pick.[/quote]
The reason high-profile pitchers are much less likely to make it in the Major Leagues than hitters is because of injury, and with that in mind, the Reds should be looking at pitchers with the right combination
Scheppers doesn't seem like a high first round guy to me. He messed up his elbow last year and is damaged goods.

Kyle Gibson, if you've heard, has a stress fracture now, and should drop far past the Reds. The Reds are drafting high enough up that they don't have to take risks with injury.

Wheeler would be okay but the high school pitcher is one I'm persistantly wary of.

I don't think Grant Green drops as far as some people are saying. He's the third best position player in the draft and would be a good pick at #8 (as would Dustin Ackley and Donavan Tate, obviously).


I would be enthusiastic if James Paxton somehow dropped to the Reds in the Supplemental/2nd round.

[#22]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='781203' date='Jun 9 2009, 02:02 AM']lmao. johnny bench was and still is a WAY bigger tool than pete rose ever was. have you ever even actually met any of these guys? your post pretty much blows a massive cock this time and odds are you have never met any of these guys and your unintelligent opinion comes from the medias portrayal and who they love and blast.[/quote]
im sure he would have mentioned that johnny bench was a shitbag if the situation was appropriate. he is wrong about grant green, who is a five tool guy and is not what i would call scrappy but we both share this hatred of the scrappy overacheiver in sports. personally i hate the label more when it is applied to certain guards in the acc but that's life i guess.
and yeah pete rose is made to look like an asshole in the media but much of that is self imposed a la barry bonds.

[|Bunghole|]

We should draft a catcher in the first round every year.

[JC]

Is Yonder going to play LF when he gets up in the bigs?

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='JC' post='781276' date='Jun 9 2009, 01:58 PM']Is Yonder going to play LF when he gets up in the bigs?[/quote]


I would think he'll play 3rd unless they move Votto to LF.

[Jason]

[quote name='JC' post='781276' date='Jun 9 2009, 12:58 PM']Is Yonder going to play LF when he gets up in the bigs?[/quote]


[quote name='Bengals1181' post='781282' date='Jun 9 2009, 01:24 PM']I would think he'll play 3rd unless they move Votto to LF.[/quote]

Unless Nix, Gomes, or Dickerson has a breakout season, I expect Votto to eventually be in LF, and Alonso at 1B.

I would think if they anticipated Alonso playing a different position in the bigs, he would be playing that position now.

I just hope they start breaking Joey into LF soon, because I will be more surprised if Yonder doesn't make the team next season than if he does.

[Go Tory Go!]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='781203' date='Jun 9 2009, 02:02 AM']lmao. johnny bench was and still is a WAY bigger tool than pete rose ever was. have you ever even actually met any of these guys? your post pretty much blows a massive cock this time and odds are you have never met any of these guys and your unintelligent opinion comes from the medias portrayal and who they love and blast.[/quote]

You caught me - red handed. I am not best friends - "BFF" you might say - with the entire Big Red Machine, Bench and Rose don't invite me over to hang out on a weekly basis, and Concepcion won't even return my phone calls anymore.

It must be nice, being you. Because from your appraisals of their character, and your obvious disdain of my appraisals for not knowing Bench and Rose on a personal level, I can only assume that you chill with these guys all the time! Is Bench's house nice? Where does Rose get his famous "Dutch Boy" styled at?

I know, I know. Enough with the charades already. So you're not chums with the Big Red Machine; so you 'met' Bench and Rose at PR events, and you're mad at No. 5 because he shouted "NEXT" when you dawdled; big deal, right? But unless they're in your "Five," and you can produce Bench AND Rose's phone numbers, I truly wonder what informs your opinion that doesn't come from some media channel. (If you feel like being a bullshitter, insert "my mom's lover's cousin's friend snorted coke with Pete Rose and Jeff Ruby once" here).

As for your allegations: Bench undoubtedly carries a great deal of bravado - so do all the others who are lauded before their retirement as the best ever at their positions. Maybe you consider his cold treatment of Rose, a long-time teammate, as evidence of douchiness - if so, it's an indictment of the entire team. Bench and the others supported Rose's induction for years, but after testing their patience for years by making himself a sideshow in Las Vegas, Rose made a mockery of their good faith by cashing in with his book and memorabilia.

Rose's contrition is now a business, a cottage industry he's set up for himself at the price of sincerity.
[img]http://product.images.fansedge.com/41-63/41-63152-P.jpg[/img]
[img]http://www.hollywoodcollectibles.com/autographed/memorabilia/sports/collectibles/authentic/Baseball/Baseballs/Pete_Rose_Sorry_BB_MID.jpg[/img]

Lately, I've seen Bench blow up in interviews when asked about Rose's eligibility, and it's a perfectly reasonable response for someone who, despite his own unparalleled merits (which exceeded Rose's), has been bothered to comment on the same asshole teammate for 20 years now.

Rose...what can be said about him? One can have a gambling addiction and maintain his class, but not while perpetually whinging about being in the Hall while making appearances opening casinos across the country. He's a product of poor parenting, and, in turn, you can see his parenting handiwork in Pete Rose Jr., the steroid user and drug dealer!

And finally, I suppose the same rules apply for Grant Green - let's hear what your apparently-informed opinion knows about him that isn't through the fallacious and deceptive media. I, for one, will restate that, though there are probably a few examples to the contrary out there, the next "Grant" I meet that isn't a douchebag will be the first.

[Go Tory Go!]

[quote name='Jason' post='781309' date='Jun 9 2009, 04:25 PM']Unless Nix, Gomes, or Dickerson has a breakout season, I expect Votto to eventually be in LF, and Alonso at 1B.

I would think if they anticipated Alonso playing a different position in the bigs, he would be playing that position now.

I just hope they start breaking Joey into LF soon, because I will be more surprised if Yonder doesn't make the team next season than if he does.[/quote]

Yeah, Yonder was marketed by his agent as a 1B who can play 3B, but generally if a player is at 1B in college, he'll probably only be playing there or DH in the big leagues. This is one reason why I wouldn't have minded getting Gordo Beckham - an average defensive college SS, he could get by there in MLB and could also move to 3B or 2B. Not much you can do with a college 1B.

Votto is at least of an athletic body type and should be able to make the transition.

[Jason]

Reds select Mike Leake, RHP, ASU.

[url="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18809&draftyear=2009"]http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player...;draftyear=2009[/url]

[Jason]

Reds second round pick:

Billy Hamilton, SS, Taylorsville (Miss.) HS

[#22]

[quote name='#22' post='781112' date='Jun 8 2009, 04:58 PM'][u]My top 5 realistic picks:[/u]
1.) Grant Green, SS.
2.) Alex White, RHP.
3.) Mike Minor, LHP.
4.) Aaron Crow, RHP.
5.) Tyler Matzek, LHP.[/quote]
Green went 13th to Oakland
White went 15th to Cleveland
Minor went 7th to Atlanta
Crow went 12th to Kansas City
Matzek went 11th to Colorado

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='781204' date='Jun 9 2009, 02:06 AM']Aaron Crow
Tanner Scheppers
Kyle Gibson
Zach Wheeler[/quote]
Crow went 12th to Kansas City
Scheppers went 44th to Texas
Gibson 22nd to Minnesota
Wheeler went 6th to San Francisco


We really suck at this.