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oldschooler

How is Vegas viewing the Bengals? Quiet poorly. Cincinnati's odds of winning Super Bowl 53 are now worse than the Browns'.

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6 minutes ago, CincyInDC said:

The odds are set based on how people are betting. It's not Vegas, it's the bettors. 

^^^

 

Reading through threads like this can give you a headache if you understand how things actually work :lol:

 

It sort of is Vegas in the sense that they set the lines with how they think people are going to bet, but when you see things happen like the Browns line moving so much, that's 100% to do with the bettors.

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4 minutes ago, CincyInDC said:

The odds are set based on how people are betting. It's not Vegas, it's the bettors. 

Initially it's Vegas though right? You can't bet until they have odds right? Not being a jackass , I just don't understand everything about betting.

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2 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

^^^

 

Reading through threads like this can give you a headache if you understand how things actually work :lol:

 

It sort of is Vegas in the sense that they set the lines with how they think people are going to bet, but when you see things happen like the Browns line moving so much, that's 100% to do with the bettors.

Yea, I was typing a similar thing while you were.

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1 hour ago, Hooky said:

Wow, that wasn't focusing on the negative at all. So those risky moves made us drop to 2nd worst team in the league?

It's probably more the risks we refused to take in hanging on to Marvin. How likely is he to win 4 playoff games in 1 season? 

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2 minutes ago, schotzee said:

Initially it's Vegas though right? You can't bet until they have odds right? Not being a jackass , I just don't understand everything about betting.

 

1 minute ago, schotzee said:

Yea, I was typing a similar thing while you were.

 

Yeah they have to set the lines but it's not an exact order of who they think are legitimately the best NFL teams.

 

Look at the Cowboys, only 4 or 5 teams had higher odds of winning the SB when the lines for 2018 opened. That's because people historically throw money at "AMERICAS TEAM" over a lot of the others.

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44 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

It's probably more the risks we refused to take in hanging on to Marvin. How likely is he to win 4 playoff games in 1 season? 

I get that, but less than Hue?

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11 hours ago, PatternMaster said:

The moves the Bengals have made are risky at best, hoping that Glenn and Eifert can get and stay healthy is a huge risk that Vegas doesn't think is going to work in the Bengals favor. 

 

Vegas isn't emotional invested like us fans, they aren't impressed with trading for an injured LT and re-signing a broken down Eifert. 

Ok, lets say you are 100% correct.  We were 7-9 last year and it looks to be an easier schedule.  That would at least make the team a fringe playoff team.    Improve the o line even a bit and we are a 9 to 11 win team.  The BROWNS SUCK.

 

Certainly we shouldn't be near the top of the list but certainly there is no reason to be at the bottom.    Same crap happened the year we drafted AJ Green and Andy.   Vegas had us winning 3 games.   Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass what we do, they change lines to protect the house.   

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1 hour ago, Hooky said:

Wow, that wasn't focusing on the negative at all. So those risky moves made us drop to 2nd worst team in the league?

Combine that with the fact that the Bengals have not had a winning season in the past 2 years, they retained Marvin Lewis despite his inability to win a playoff game in over 15 years, and their best defensive player is going to be suspended to begin the season again. In the past 2 seasons Burfict has missed the first 3 games of the year and the Bengals are 1-5 in those games. Most teams that start off the season at 0-3 or 1-2 don't win the Super Bowl. 

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3 minutes ago, PatternMaster said:

Combine that with the fact that the Bengals have not had a winning season in the past 2 years, they retained Marvin Lewis despite his inability to win a playoff game in over 15 years, and their best defensive player is going to be suspended to begin the season again. In the past 2 seasons Burfict has missed the first 3 games of the year and the Bengals are 1-5 in those games. Most teams that start off the season at 0-3 or 1-2 don't win the Super Bowl. 

Or ya know, just the fact that the people who bet aren't throwing piles of money at the Bengals right now.

 

Nothing less, nothing more. That's literally the sole reason for the line being what it is right now.

 

People are putting way too much thought into this.

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8 minutes ago, PatternMaster said:

Combine that with the fact that the Bengals have not had a winning season in the past 2 years, they retained Marvin Lewis despite his inability to win a playoff game in over 15 years, and their best defensive player is going to be suspended to begin the season again. In the past 2 seasons Burfict has missed the first 3 games of the year and the Bengals are 1-5 in those games. Most teams that start off the season at 0-3 or 1-2 don't win the Super Bowl. 

Most teams that start off the season 0-16 don't win the Superbowl either.  The instances of a team 3-13 or worse going to the Superbowl the next year is non existent.  Teams that have gone from near .500 to the Superbowl is a common occurrence to include the current champion Philly.

 

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32 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

Or ya know, just the fact that the people who bet aren't throwing piles of money at the Bengals right now.

 

Nothing less, nothing more. That's literally the sole reason for the line being what it is right now.

 

People are putting way too much thought into this.

I get that, but the discussion/argument in part of this thread has become that we are deserving of such horrible odds compared to the browns and other teams. Which is ridiculous.

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58 minutes ago, Hooky said:

I get that, but the discussion/argument in part of this thread has become that we are deserving of such horrible odds compared to the browns and other teams. Which is ridiculous.

Right, I understand that but I'm just saying when the odds move it's only because people aren't throwing money at Cincinnati sports right now. The Browns and some other teams are being forced to higher odds due to bettors trying to make a buck with their dark horse picks. There's honestly nothing more to it than that when it comes to the reason why the Browns have better odds than us right now. I don't think it's ridiculous that the Browns odds are increasing as there's nothing more to that than people betting on them. Do I think those people betting on the Browns to win the SB are dumb? Absolutely! I'll agree with you on that much.

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1 hour ago, omgdrdoom said:

Or ya know, just the fact that the people who bet aren't throwing piles of money at the Bengals right now.

 

Nothing less, nothing more. That's literally the sole reason for the line being what it is right now.

 

People are putting way too much thought into this.

This is true, it's all about enticing people to beat. Vegas is thinking that if they give the Bengals 90 to 1 odds they will get people to put money on them to win in hopes they get lucky and get a huge payday, Vegas believes that they can give these crazy odds and still make money on the beat.

 

30 minutes ago, Hooky said:

I get that, but the discussion/argument in part of this thread has become that we are deserving of such horrible odds compared to the browns and other teams. Which is ridiculous.

What the Vegas odds represents is that no one outside of the Bengals organization and it's fan base have much confidence in this team to do much this season and they aren't impressed with the off season moves that they have made. I think adding Preston Brown  and Chris Baker were solid moves, outside of that everything else has been a gamble. 

 

1 hour ago, SF2 said:

Ok, lets say you are 100% correct.  We were 7-9 last year and it looks to be an easier schedule.  That would at least make the team a fringe playoff team.    Improve the o line even a bit and we are a 9 to 11 win team.  The BROWNS SUCK.

 

Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass what we do, they change lines to protect the house.   

But how much have the Bengals improved the offensive line this off season?  They added Bobby Hart, a guy who quit on this last team, and traded for a 350 lb guy that has been dealing with a ankle/foot injury for the past 2 years. The Bills gave up on Glenn after giving him big money, most teams don't trade away quality LT's so they clearly thought he was damaged goods or he would not been available. He could heal up and be a quality player or continue on his current history of being injury prone. Once there is more certainty on Glenn's status I'm sure the Vegas lines will change but currently betting on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl is a risky proposition. 

 

1 hour ago, SF2 said:

Most teams that start off the season 0-16 don't win the Superbowl either.  The instances of a team 3-13 or worse going to the Superbowl the next year is non existent.  Teams that have gone from near .500 to the Superbowl is a common occurrence to include the current champion Philly.

 

 

FWIW, I don't expect the Browns or the Bengals to win the Super Bowl and definitely wont be betting on either team. 

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8 minutes ago, PatternMaster said:

 

But how much have the Bengals improved the offensive line this off season?  They added Bobby Hart, a guy who quit on this last team, and traded for a 350 lb guy that has been dealing with a ankle/foot injury for the past 2 years. The Bills gave up on Glenn after giving him big money, most teams don't trade away quality LT's so they clearly thought he was damaged goods or he would not been available. He could heal up and be a quality player or continue on his current history of being injury prone. Once there is more certainty on Glenn's status I'm sure the Vegas lines will change but currently betting on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl is a risky proposition. 

 

 

Most teams don't have 2 quality LTs either. The trade made sense on both sides. We have an out with $0 dead money after this year if his foot ends up a long term issue and the Bills cleared some cap space and moved up in the draft. There's no way the Bills trade him if they didn't have another good LT on their roster. It's not like he was traded for being a terrible teammate or having a bad contract. If Glenn ends up playing a full season here this is going to look like one of the best trades the organization has ever made. We have him locked up for under $10m per year for 2019 and 2020 as long as those injuries are behind him. That's really cheap for a good LT nowadays and contracts are going to keep getting bigger and bigger over the next few years.

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13 hours ago, omgdrdoom said:

What does that even mean? No shit they didn't have faith in a huge underdog. The Browns can (and have) beat the Patriots before but it doesn't mean there should be good odds for it to happen. Do you honestly think that bettors were "wrong" for putting their money on a team that should theoretically win 9 out of 10 times?

 

I swear that some people just want to be as illogical and dense as fucking possible 24/7.

Aww man, forgive me for posting anything when I should just be reading and listening to people like you that are football and mathematical geniuses.  I am often amazed that you take time out of your obviously genius lifestyle to even correct such a poor ignorant soul such as myself.  Please, great sir, continue to show me the error of my ways.

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17 hours ago, westside bengal said:

There were 12 other teams watching Johnny including the Patriots, Giants, Raiders and Panthers.  

 

16 hours ago, schotzee said:

Yea West , but the stains have already witnessed his shit show many times up close and personal.:lol:

 

My point exactly.  Stains have a new GM but he's going to send out a scout anyways?  

That makes sense to anyone?  lol  I mean, does he, (John Dorsey), think he's going to see

something magical that Ray Farmer missed?  

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5 hours ago, kennethmw said:

Aww man, forgive me for posting anything when I should just be reading and listening to people like you that are football and mathematical geniuses.  I am often amazed that you take time out of your obviously genius lifestyle to even correct such a poor ignorant soul such as myself.  Please, great sir, continue to show me the error of my ways.

LMAO! If it's that meaningful to you, I can assist doom in this task! :ninja:

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2 hours ago, Randle P McMurphy said:

 

 

My point exactly.  Stains have a new GM but he's going to send out a scout anyways?  

That makes sense to anyone?  lol  I mean, does he, (John Dorsey), think he's going to see

something magical that Ray Farmer missed?  

Johnny foottall the second coming = Brown's championship! :lol:

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17 hours ago, kennethmw said:

Aww man, forgive me for posting anything when I should just be reading and listening to people like you that are football and mathematical geniuses.  I am often amazed that you take time out of your obviously genius lifestyle to even correct such a poor ignorant soul such as myself.  Please, great sir, continue to show me the error of my ways.

 

It's just illogical to even bring up a huge underdog in the NCAA tournament in this conversation. Don't know why you'd do it, but if you want to look like a goofball then feel free to continue.

 

It's VERY telling that you made that kind of post instead of refuting my points BTW. :thumbsup:

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On 3/24/2018 at 2:46 PM, omgdrdoom said:

 

It's just illogical to even bring up a huge underdog in the NCAA tournament in this conversation. Don't know why you'd do it, but if you want to look like a goofball then feel free to continue.

 

It's VERY telling that you made that kind of post instead of refuting my points BTW. :thumbsup:

Your point seems to be that based on the ownership and the fact that Marvin Lewis is still our coach we have no chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.  The only problem is that is NOT we are talking about. It isn't the topic.

 

The topic is about the odds of EVERY NFL team winning the Super Bowl.  If you think we have the second worst team in the NFL then fine.  

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On 3/25/2018 at 3:49 PM, SF2 said:

Your point seems to be that based on the ownership and the fact that Marvin Lewis is still our coach we have no chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.  The only problem is that is NOT we are talking about. It isn't the topic.

 

The topic is about the odds of EVERY NFL team winning the Super Bowl.  If you think we have the second worst team in the NFL then fine.  

 

I think you either meant to respond to someone else or that you've got people's names mixed up in this thread.

 

My points have been nothing like what you said here lol

 

The fact is that the odds shifted because people are throwing money at the Browns as a dark horse and unless the Bengals have 3-5 straight playoff seasons we don't see much action from bettors. That's the reason the odds shifted, not because the Browns are being seen as a good team and that we suck. People just don't really bet on the Bengals much especially when we're coming off a mediocre year. The ranking of SB odds isn't 100% a list of the best to the worst team. Yes, typically better teams have better odds, but that's not always the case depending on where the money is coming in to the sportsbook.

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2 hours ago, omgdrdoom said:

 

I think you either meant to respond to someone else or that you've got people's names mixed up in this thread.

 

My points have been nothing like what you said here lol

 

The fact is that the odds shifted because people are throwing money at the Browns as a dark horse and unless the Bengals have 3-5 straight playoff seasons we don't see much action from bettors. That's the reason the odds shifted, not because the Browns are being seen as a good team and that we suck. People just don't really bet on the Bengals much especially when we're coming off a mediocre year. The ranking of SB odds isn't 100% a list of the best to the worst team. Yes, typically better teams have better odds, but that's not always the case depending on where the money is coming in to the sportsbook.

What I was saying earlier and what I think SF2 was trying to say, regardless of who he meant to reply to, is that the discussion shifted away from being about odds and that the bengals deserve to be considered as one of the worst teams in the league.

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21 hours ago, oldschooler said:

 

According to Bovada, the 100-1 shot is tied with five other teams for longest odds in the NFL. Cincinnati is joined by the New York Jets, Chicago, Buffalo, Cleveland and Miami.

 

So of the 5, who do you guys think have the best chance to win the Super Bowl.  Yes I don't think any but if you had to pick one.    It has to be us right??

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So besides Bovada, what site has the best over/under season wins for the Bengals right now?

Betting sites are a bit difficult to navigate for me or I just suck at them, LOL.

 

Bovada is OK but it seems they raised their O/U on the Bengals season wins to 6 1/2?

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