The Way Too Early 2024 Draft Thread

[claptonrocks]

1 minute ago, spicoli said:

They can likely get Sweat in the 3rd round or later. 

No way that happens imo.

Love to get him in rd2 if possible.

Big Clog in the middle for us.

[T-Dub]

I wish I could convince myself they won't extend Jonah then draft a WR in the first round. 

[Jamie_B]

19 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Wingo was pretty dominate (along with the other LSU DL Mason Smith I believe) to close out their bowl win. Brugler has spoken highly of Jackson, said he should be 'high' on a lot of team's lists becuse he has size (325 I think) plus very quick and athletic. Kind of sounds like Reader....

 

Question - if at our pick we have a choice between say Fuaga/Laptham at RT or Newton at DT (disruptive 3T), who votes for whom?

 

 

Depends. How deep is this class at RT and 3Tech? How many bites of the apple do they have a chance at if they don't take the RT and take the 3Tech? Or vice versa?

[spicoli]

38 minutes ago, claptonrocks said:

No way that happens imo

Those really heavy guys rarely go that high, GM’s worry about them eating themselves out of the league. Keep in mind DJ Reader was a 5th round pick. 

[claptonrocks]

4 minutes ago, spicoli said:

Those really heavy guys rarely go that high, GM’s worry about them eating themselves out of the league. Keep in mind DJ Reader was a 5th round pick. 

Yes.but Sweat has lost almost 20lbs to 346....

.perfect specimen at NT....

No?

[Jamie_B]

4 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

I wish I could convince myself they won't extend Jonah then draft a WR in the first round. 

 

Nightmare scenario, and it is entirely plausible. I was on board with Jamar over Sewell, but we can tag Tee and get a WR 3 later, we do not need a 1st round WR 3

[claptonrocks]

42 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

I wish I could convince myself they won't extend Jonah then draft a WR in the first round. 

They won't extend Williams.

Enough is enough of his play.

Drafting WR Rome Odunze would be a huge surprise but he's an excellent prospect if they decide to trade Tee..

[claptonrocks]

2 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

 

Nightmare scenario, and it is entirely plausible. I was on board with Jamar over Sewell, but we can tag Tee and get a WR 3 later, we do not need a 1st round WR 3

Agree but Odunze is sooo gifted.

But yeah your right.

[T-Dub]

7 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

 

Nightmare scenario, and it is entirely plausible. I was on board with Jamar over Sewell, but we can tag Tee and get a WR 3 later, we do not need a 1st round WR 3

 

 

If this were Madden I'd tag/trade Higgins in a package with Browning & take a future HoF player from someone like Pittsburgh, Dallas or SF along with half their draft picks.

 

So get on it, Duke.

 

[spicoli]

16 minutes ago, claptonrocks said:

perfect specimen at NT....

No?

I don’t know 🤷‍♂️ 

Guess we’ll see in April. 
Those type guys are usually 3rd-4th rounders though unless they’re complete freaks of nature. 

[alleycat]

On 11/17/2023 at 6:51 PM, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Bowers is seen by many as a Top 5 pick, he is likely to be long gone wherever we end up in the draft

I watched the game last night to scout Sweat but came away really liking what I saw from Byron Murphy II. Don't sleep on that guy. 

[T-Dub]

2 hours ago, spicoli said:

I don’t know 🤷‍♂️ 

Guess we’ll see in April. 
Those type guys are usually 3rd-4th rounders though unless they’re complete freaks of nature. 

 

They've done really well with midround DL.  Rookies on both sides of the line usually take a year or even two to play at a consistent level.  True of any position but consistency shows more in front where they're critical to every single snap.  A rookie WR can run the wrong routes, a DB or LB can blow coverages or miss tackles then turn around and make a play & all is forgiven. On the other hand an OL whiffs one block and the franchise could be riding out on the cart.  Big difference in learning curves there & if you accept that redshirt year as a given I think there's more value in the middle rounds - provided your coaches can develop raw talent. That's been true for a long run of standout defensive linemen. Conversely for the OL, well, they've been terribad like holy shit how is it even possible to blow so many draft picks in a row bad, and it's become the major issue holding the team back.

 

That being said it'd be good to avoid drafting for starters & it may mean Jonah is the best option as a placeholder until that rookie OT unseats him.  That's how it should work at any position, ideally.  You hope a first round pick makes that decision an easy one & it's rare for rookie linemen to make that jump to the NFL level immediately. It may even take a top 15 OT half a season to earn that spot, that's realistic to me.

 

tl;dr - we're still banking far too heavily on the draft.

[Jamie_B]

21 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

 

They've done really well with midround DL.  Rookies on both sides of the line usually take a year or even two to play at a consistent level.  True of any position but consistency shows more in front where they're critical to every single snap.  A rookie WR can run the wrong routes, a DB or LB can blow coverages or miss tackles then turn around and make a play & all is forgiven. On the other hand an OL whiffs one block and the franchise could be riding out on the cart.  Big difference in learning curves there & if you accept that redshirt year as a given I think there's more value in the middle rounds - provided your coaches can develop raw talent. That's been true for a long run of standout defensive linemen. Conversely for the OL, well, they've been terribad like holy shit how is it even possible to blow so many draft picks in a row bad, and it's become the major issue holding the team back.

 

That being said it'd be good to avoid drafting for starters & it may mean Jonah is the best option as a placeholder until that rookie OT unseats him.  That's how it should work at any position, ideally.  You hope a first round pick makes that decision an easy one & it's rare for rookie linemen to make that jump to the NFL level immediately. It may even take a top 15 OT half a season to earn that spot, that's realistic to me.

 

tl;dr - we're still banking far too heavily on the draft.

 

 

I'm kind of shocked your talking about bringing back Jonnah. I mean if they do, you know they wont draft a OT very high, and the one they will draft will be a backup.

[T-Dub]

9 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

 

 

I'm kind of shocked your talking about bringing back Jonnah. I mean if they do, you know they wont draft a OT very high, and the one they will draft will be a backup.

 

It'd make sense to bring him back with the understanding that there's going to be real competition in TC this time and at a price that doesn't make the bean counters force him into the position. If he thinks some other team will give him a long-term starter contract GL with that & bon voyage. With any luck it's an AFC team but that's even less likely.

 

Of course what'll actually happen might not make sense but that's hardly worth talking about here.  We all know the goof shit they're capable of when it comes to the OL and drafting.  Let's hope they've learned something from it.

[sparky151]

Jonah is looking for a long term deal. Something like 5years/80 mil. No way Bengals should give that to him. Some team might do it and then put him back at LT.

 

In any event, he isn't signing a 1 year deal in Cincinnati.

 

Pollack hasn't shown any ability to develop younger players. So we should use higher picks on the O-line. I'd take a tackle in the first and maybe a center in round 3 or 4. Take Sweat in round 2 if he's available. 

[I_C_Deadpeople]

Jonah may be looking for that type of deal but no team will give it. I would let him look at the market and he could end up back here on a short term reasonable deal. 

[T-Dub]

16 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Jonah is looking for a long term deal. Something like 5years/80 mil.

 

 

and I'm looking for rowdy cowgirls at the chili cook-off.  Not bragging when I say I think I like my odds better than his..

 

Quote

Pollack hasn't shown any ability to develop younger players. So we should use higher picks on the O-line find someone who can

 

Assuming these were his draft picks.  If it's more like Duke & friends telling him "Here we found these in the parking lot, make a SB champion" then it's a more difficult problem to solve.  I'm not convinced this was his mess, in fairness to him it was very much like this when he got here - quite a bit worse, in fact. 

 

Jonah was a parting gift from Kaptain Ketchup.  I assume Pollack was involved in drafting Carman, other than that it's been guys chosen in the bottom of the 4th round or later. One of those is our starting LG.

 

I really think we might be blaming the wrong person(s) for this OL.

[sparky151]

Jawaan Taylor got 20 mil per year last offseason. Andre Dillard got a big contract too. Someone will overpay Jonah. I expect he'll get at least 15 mil per season. 

[T-Dub]

1 minute ago, sparky151 said:

Jawaan Taylor got 20 mil per year last offseason. Andre Dillard got a big contract too. Someone will overpay Jonah. I expect he'll get at least 15 mil per season. 

 

Oh please let it be an AFC team.

[texbengal]

18 hours ago, alleycat said:

I watched the game last night to scout Sweat but came away really liking what I saw from Byron Murphy II. Don't sleep on that guy. 

 

He's been the better player, from games I've seen. Sweat was a tease before that really came on this year... was Big 12 defensive player of the year. He's quite a bit bigger. But even at 340, guys like that can battle weight issues in the league. Murphy is "only" about 310... but he gets penetration pretty consistently and he plays hard. Would be happy with either guy... Sweat will likely go higher for the potential, the fact that he's ascending, and his bigger size. I love Johhny Newton of Illinois, too. Very explosive inside player. 

[texbengal]

13 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Jonah may be looking for that type of deal but no team will give it. I would let him look at the market and he could end up back here on a short term reasonable deal. 

 

Not so sure about that. OL play is abysmal around the league. Here's a guy in his mid-20s who has started at both LT and RT... and while certainly not great, he's started for several years and he's average, and sometimes better (and sometimes worse). Looking at other T starters in the league, somebody will throw money at him. 

[Le Tigre]

1 hour ago, texbengal said:

 

He's been the better player, from games I've seen. Sweat was a tease before that really came on this year... was Big 12 defensive player of the year. He's quite a bit bigger. But even at 340, guys like that can battle weight issues in the league. Murphy is "only" about 310... but he gets penetration pretty consistently and he plays hard. Would be happy with either guy... Sweat will likely go higher for the potential, the fact that he's ascending, and his bigger size. I love Johhny Newton of Illinois, too. Very explosive inside player. 

Texas (the state, not the Horns) produces so many upper-level players at the HS level, who then sometimes stay in state. You seem to be on top of it all, so question: besides UT, what player/players from other in-state schools do you see as first-round/second round quality? I'm mostly interested in offensive/defensive line, but WR is curious also. 

 

I have seen some very good players at UTSA, North Texas, and other small-to mid-level schools. 

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, texbengal said:

 

Not so sure about that. OL play is abysmal around the league. Here's a guy in his mid-20s who has started at both LT and RT... and while certainly not great, he's started for several years and he's average, and sometimes better (and sometimes worse). Looking at other T starters in the league, somebody will throw money at him. 

 

Yeah, Jonah will get paid. When healthy he's a mid level starting LT. There's a shortage of those around the league so several teams will bid him up. Basically he's what a team would expect a mid to late first round pick to develop into. Being able to use that pick elsewhere and avoid the rookie mistakes makes him a value to some teams.

[claptonrocks]

21 hours ago, T-Dub said:

I wish I could convince myself they won't extend Jonah then draft a WR in the first round. 

Rome Odunze...😎

[I_C_Deadpeople]

7 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

 

Yeah, Jonah will get paid. When healthy he's a mid level starting LT. There's a shortage of those around the league so several teams will bid him up. Basically he's what a team would expect a mid to late first round pick to develop into. Being able to use that pick elsewhere and avoid the rookie mistakes makes him a value to some teams.

I stand corrected, I myself have mentioned it enough times that even the average guys are getting above average pay.  Someone will likley pay him and we can get a 3rd round comp pick (before offsets). Hofefully we can get one of the two good RT propsects in round 1.