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Rumble In the Jungle

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[quote name='Homer_Rice' post='741085' date='Jan 19 2009, 07:58 AM']...may not be able to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

We're entering the next phase of our economic implosion. CYA.

Humorously, on Bush's legacy: note the date.

[url="http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784"]"The insanity is over," Bush said. "After a long, dark night of peace and stability, the sun is finally rising again over America. We look forward to a bright new dawn not seen since the glory days of my dad."[/url][/quote]
I think a "wait and see" approach is still warranted...tenuously.
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[quote name='Elflocko' post='741808' date='Jan 23 2009, 12:22 AM']Anyone who thinks we've hit bottom is wanking themselves.

We still have 2 more waves or ARM adjustments in the RE market heading our way.

We won't even start to recover until 2012...[/quote]
Agreed. Plus commercial real estate is gone now, too.

But the problem is actually much more serious than simply real estate. As I have said before, the international financial system is literally bankrupt. Until folks start acknowledging that reality--with corresponding policy proposals--then we'll keep sliding downwards with the real, productive economy taking the hit. As we are seeing more and more each day.
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[quote name='Elflocko' post='741808' date='Jan 22 2009, 11:22 PM']Anyone who thinks we've hit bottom is wanking themselves.

We still have 2 more waves or ARM adjustments in the RE market heading our way.

We won't even start to recover until 2012...[/quote]
IDK man, the market is a recoverable motherfucker....it depends on whether it can be instigated into doing so or not.
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[quote name='Homer_Rice' post='741814' date='Jan 23 2009, 12:06 AM']Agreed. Plus commercial real estate is gone now, too.

But the problem is actually much more serious than simply real estate. As I have said before, the international financial system is literally bankrupt. Until folks start acknowledging that reality--with corresponding policy proposals--then we'll keep sliding downwards with the real, productive economy taking the hit. As we are seeing more and more each day.[/quote]


RE is just the first domino. The bad part is that it's getting ready to start down a whole new row.
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[quote name='Bunghole' post='741816' date='Jan 23 2009, 12:12 AM']IDK man, the market is a recoverable motherfucker....it depends on whether it can be instigated into doing so or not.[/quote]


Sure, but it won't be recoverable for another 2 years.

Think about it: A minimum of 2 new waves (over 2 years) of foreclosures causing additional massive losses at already destitute financial institutions. We're talking about the potential of [b]TRILLIONS[/b] in new potential losses.

That takes away money that can be loaned for everything else.

And in case you think I'm talking out of my ass (which would be understandable as I'm a geek, not a financial analyst): My wife worked in escrow in the LV real estate market for over 5 years, and my brother-in-law (a first class shitbag) is a mortgage broker here.

Things are going to get even uglier if you can believe that ... :mellow:

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I'll stick my neck out there and say we are nearing the bottom. I live in Las Vegas. Traditional mortgages are now approaching rents. That tells me that the housing market is close to correcting here.

Yes, tons of people are in foreclosure and tons more are about to get F'd in the A with ARM resets, but also there are many people like me who waited patiently.

As far as the market: it is adjusting because companies and people are waking up and saying "we've got to deleverage". Banks are pulling lines of credit, consumers are paying off debt, lending standards are being raised. I think that is good behavior and will strengthen our economy. If the bailout works and this "toxic" debit is removed, financial institutions will be stronger in the end. Responsible spending will be in style again.

Yes the market will correct to a smaller level, but it will be actual, not inflated. To me that is a good sign.
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[quote name='sois' post='741870' date='Jan 23 2009, 10:35 AM']I'll stick my neck out there and say we are nearing the bottom. I live in Las Vegas. Traditional mortgages are now approaching rents. That tells me that the housing market is close to correcting here.

Yes, tons of people are in foreclosure and tons more are about to get F'd in the A with ARM resets, but also there are many people like me who waited patiently.

As far as the market: it is adjusting because companies and people are waking up and saying "we've got to deleverage". Banks are pulling lines of credit, consumers are paying off debt, lending standards are being raised. I think that is good behavior and will strengthen our economy. If the bailout works and this "toxic" debit is removed, financial institutions will be stronger in the end. Responsible spending will be in style again.

Yes the market will correct to a smaller level, but it will be actual, not inflated. To me that is a good sign.[/quote]


Hate to be a "Debbie Downer", but I'll take that bet. The market here won't even start to recover until 2012.


BTW, what part of town did you settle in?
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