What should we be paying Andre? (He reportedly wants $9 million per year)

[|kennethmw|]

 
I might be wrong but usually when someone says something will give us an additional 10M in cap room they are referring to a yearly basis, not over the course of 5 years.

Maybe you misunderstood my question. What type of contract could you sign that guy to, if you didn't have that 2 mill?

[JBandJoeyV]

Maybe you misunderstood my question. What type of contract could you sign that guy to, if you didn't have that 2 mill?

 

 

If you were already at the cap limit? Nothing...but to say it gives you 10M of cap space would make one think that it would give them 10 extra mil that year to spend.

 

Maybe its just a wording thing, I dont know.

[|kennethmw|]

 
 
If you were already at the cap limit? Nothing...but to say it gives you 10M of cap space would make one think that it would give them 10 extra mil that year to spend.
 
Maybe its just a wording thing, I dont know.

Maybe.

[Elijah15]

Fuck man, i rather not resign andre. What are we gonna do when we have to pay aj green and atkins hella money. i mean its gonna be fucked up

[Bengals1181]

3. I think Cincinnati tackle Andre Smith should come with a warning label. Something like, "Huge money is hazardous to this player's greatness." Talked to several teams scared of Smith. They remember his weight problems early in his Cincinnati tenure, and they fear what a big signing bonus would do to his desire.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20130304/joe-flacco-tom-brady-peter-king-monday-morning-quarterback/#ixzz2MZswFMu2

[scharm]

Quality is in the eye of the beholder. Bushrod is OK...but had a very down 2012. If you are talking about Baker of the Falcons...the guy is a LT...and not real solid either. Plus an iffy back.

Neither is In Andre's area code.

 

Bushrod has been to a pro bowl.   Baker could switch.    Both are definately in Andre's range.   Andre isn't Willie Anderson. 

[scharm]

Heard on the Radio Long is looking for 11 mil a year.  There is your range for LT money. 

[sparky151]

Heard on the Radio Long is looking for 11 mil a year.  There is your range for LT money. 

That's less than he made in 2012. He's probably the best LT on the market but it's not clearcut.

[Jamie_B]

1181, are you sure you aren't Mike Brown?  You sure are a tight ass and it ain't even your money.  That's only a million a year more than the two year extension would have been, and he's considered one of the best if not the best RT in the league.  20 mill bonus, 2.25 a year 1st and second, guaranteed, that's 24.5 guaranteed and less than a 6 mill cap hit both years.  6.5 in 3, 7.5 in 4, and 7.75 in 5 and 6.  that gives you cap hits of 9.83 in 3, 10.83 in 4, and 11.08 in 5 and 6.  Now, I will admit, that's if you think his head's right now, but all indications are that it is. 

 

 

X2 I don't think folks are taking inflation into account. I have no issue with paying him that.

[Jamie_B]

I just think people look at our cap space this year and just assume we have to sign him. I just dont think its that easy. Hell I think we would be better off front loading the

contract then backloading it. We have money in 2013, but we are likely going to be tight on money come 2015 and beyond when we have long term contracts for guys like Geno, AJ, Dalton, etc.

!completely agree about front loading it

[Jamie_B]

Lets say this team has 4 holes right now (assuming we sign our other FAs outside of Andre). RT, LB, S, and RB. Everyone is wanting to fill RT with Andre and then fill the other 3 in the first 2 rounds of the draft (or most people are anyways). Lets say it costs us 9M a year to retain Andre. Then we draft a LB, S, and RB early and expect those rookies to play well right away.

 

What if instead we take the 9 mil and sign a solid starting LB and solid starting S. Maybe not top tier guys, but solid starters none the less. Now we only have holes at RT and RB. Find a good RT prospect in the first two rounds and let him compete with collins or wharton or whoever. Maybe RT isnt as good as it was in 2012, but you can probably be assured that the LB and S positions will be cause we signed solid FAs in those two spots. It would also likely be easier to extend other guys in the future as we wont have a big 9-10 M contract on the books for Andre.

 

Im not saying this is what will happen or that this is necessarily what I want to happen, im just saying how good this offseason is doesnt completely hinge on whether or not we resign Andre. 

 

You don't get better by diluting the talent pool. Letting Andre go in favor of bringing in less talent at other positions isn't going to make you better.

[scharm]

You don't get better by diluting the talent pool. Letting Andre go in favor of bringing in less talent at other positions isn't going to make you better.

 

Not that simple.    In one offseason we lost Carson Palmer, TO, Chad, and J.Joe and this team has since won 19 games.

 

AJ Green clearly better than Chad was at that point.   Others not so clear and an arguement can be made that the Bengals didn't bring in equal talent at those exact spots.

 

I think what we've the past two years suggest the exact opposite of what you stated.

[Jamie_B]

Not that simple.    In one offseason we lost Carson Palmer, TO, Chad, and J.Joe and this team has since won 19 games.

 

AJ Green clearly better than Chad was at that point.   Others not so clear and an arguement can be made that the Bengals didn't bring in equal talent at those exact spots.

 

I think what we've the past two years suggest the exact opposite of what you stated.

 

 

And in that same time the O has taken a step back, the D has been the primary reason we won.

 

correlation does not imply causation

[Jason]

And in that same time the O has taken a step back sideways, the D has been the primary reason we won.

 

correlation does not imply causation

 

The O has finished between 20 and 24 every year since 2009.

[happyrid]

On twitter Reedy said he thinks it is 50/50 that Andre is back. That is slightly higher than I was thinking, so a little bit of a positive.

 

I just hope the Bengals have plans B, C and D ready to go if they aren't able to keep Andre. I could see a few different paths that wouldn't be too bad:

 

1. Spend the "extra" money you now have on the defense. Get Carlos and MJ extended. Maybe Geno also, though if you get the two DEs extended, it is easy to franchise Geno next year. Also go out and get one of the best veteran Safeties on the market. There are a lot of them and they will all be cheaper than Andre. I think you can get one of the top guys for $5M a year or so. Keep Pacman, Rey and Howard. If your starting lineup is mostly set on D (you probably still want a young LB in the first couple rounds), all of a sudden you are freed up to use most of the early picks on offense. Grab one of the top RT prospects. Grab a very good WR and one of the top RBs. You would then hope that your D is elite and can cover up a little bit for what would be a very young (but potentially very talented) offense.

 

2. Spend the "extra" money on one of the other OTs on the market. I don't think the top guys, especially the ones who can also play the left side decently, are going to be all that much cheaper but if the Bengals have $7-8M budgeted for Andre, maybe they just stick to their budget and get the next best OT on the market who is willing to sign in that range. Getting a RT that could also be an average to above average starting LT is a big benefit. Whitworth is getting up there in years and has had some real injury issues the last couple years. He has been able to play through them, but one of these years, he is going to have an injury that is going to have him miss some games. I don't think any of these guys on the market are as good run blocking as Andre, but some of them are as good as pass blockers and have a bit more versatility in terms of being able to play LT if needed.

 

3. Don't spend the "extra" money on any outside FAs and just keep carrying it forward to retain your flexibility in the future. I think this would be a bit of a disappointing option for fans, but it isn't necessarily a terrible idea. This is still a pretty young core group of talent. You hurt chances of winning this year, but position yourself to do some things in future years. Brady and Manning are going to be tough to beat right now, but once those 2 are finished in a year or two, there is the possibility that a new team emerges as a dynasty type team that makes the playoffs every year. The big downside to this strategy is that Andre is only 26. He should be part of your long term core group of young guys that you build around.

[Jason]

How many of the following can we realistically keep long term, and who is most expendable?

 

Andre Smith

Michael Johnson

Carlos Dunlap

Geno Atkins

AJ Green

Andy Dalton (assuming he shows progress this coming season)

 

Even with the depth of this draft at DE, I think RT is the easiest to replace.

[happyrid]

The O has finished between 20 and 24 every year since 2009.

 

I think our style of play slightly underestimates our offensive performance if you look only at the yardage rankings. Teams that run the ball a lot and play good defense generally finish lower in the yardage rankings than teams with bad defenses that have to throw a ton and try to outscore opponents (Detroit is one good example of a team that puts up a ton of yards, but isn't quite as good in the advanced stats). Offenses that play safe and run a bit more (SF is a good example) finish lower in the yardage rankings but higher in the advanced stats.

 

In 2011, the advanced stats had the Bengals 16th in offense, which I think was probably about right. There are definitely some games where the D is doing really well and the offense just has to take care of the ball and get a few timely scores. I would say the offense has pretty much been league average the past 2 years of the Dalton/Green era.

 

I think the general point that we all probably agree with is that the Bengals need to do something to get over that hump and go from decent/good to very good/great on offense if we ever want to be a legit Super Bowl contender.

 

It's going to take a combo of (1) the line playing better, (2) getting Dalton more weapons at RB/WR, (3) the young guys at WR/TE improving as they gain experience and (4) Dalton taking his game to the next level as he gains experience and works on improving his weak points.

[|kennethmw|]

I think our style of play slightly underestimates our offensive performance if you look only at the yardage rankings. Teams that run the ball a lot and play good defense generally finish lower in the yardage rankings than teams with bad defenses that have to throw a ton and try to outscore opponents (Detroit is one good example of a team that puts up a ton of yards, but isn't quite as good in the advanced stats). Offenses that play safe and run a bit more (SF is a good example) finish lower in the yardage rankings but higher in the advanced stats.

 

In 2011, the advanced stats had the Bengals 16th in offense, which I think was probably about right. There are definitely some games where the D is doing really well and the offense just has to take care of the ball and get a few timely scores. I would say the offense has pretty much been league average the past 2 years of the Dalton/Green era.

 

I think the general point that we all probably agree with is that the Bengals need to do something to get over that hump and go from decent/good to very good/great on offense if we ever want to be a legit Super Bowl contender.

 

It's going to take a combo of (1) the line playing better, (2) getting Dalton more weapons at RB/WR, (3) the young guys at WR/TE improving as they gain experience and (4) Dalton taking his game to the next level as he gains experience and works on improving his weak points.

 

Very sound post!

[happyrid]

How many of the following can we realistically keep long term, and who is most expendable?

 

Andre Smith

Michael Johnson

Carlos Dunlap

Geno Atkins

AJ Green

Andy Dalton (assuming he shows progress this coming season)

 

Even with the depth of this draft at DE, I think RT is the easiest to replace.

 

I think we basically already have AJ "long term," so I'm not too worried about him just yet. When you count his relatively affordable option year, he has 3 years left on his current deal. He is a no brainer as a franchise tag if needed 4 years from now. I'd love to have him locked up through 2020, but 4 years is pretty much "long term" already.

 

As for the 4 guys that are up in the next 2 years, I made the long post a few weeks back that keeping 3 of the 4 long term is probably most realistic. I would agree with you that if I could only keep 3 of the 4, it would be the 3 D Linemen over Andre. The Bengals were good last year due to the DL, not the OL. Those 3 guys (along with AJ) are the heart and soul of this team.

 

In terms of replacing them, there are probably going to be 5 or 6 DEs (maybe more) off the board before the Bengals pick at 21. There is maybe going to be one RT taken in the top 20. Maybe none are taken. Looking at it in that light, it is a lot easier to get one of the best young RTs in the draft than it is to get one of the best young DEs. Pass rushers, especially those who are 270+ and can play the run too, go very, very high in the draft. We absolutely lucked out to get Carlos, MJ and Geno in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds and odds are we won't be able to get steals like that again.

 

I have no idea what to think about Dalton. His performance is going to determine how expensive he becomes. Could he become as good as Flacco in a couple years? It wouldn't shock me. Could he end up being "just a guy" as kind of a middle of the pack starter like a Matt Schaub? That wouldn't shock me either. Just kind of a wait and see mode on Andy as I have no idea what he is going to end up costing.

 

Sorry for the long, rambling response, but my answer is we should be able to keep 5 of the 6 long term.

[JBandJoeyV]

 
You don't get better by diluting the talent pool. Letting Andre go in favor of bringing in less talent at other positions isn't going to make you better.

It doesn't necessarily dilute the talent though.

This is just a rough example but lets say with RT, S and Lb what if the options are signing Andre for 9M a year then draft Elam in the first and a lb in the second.

What if instead they get William Moore from the falcons for 6M a year dj Williams for 3 mil a year at LB then draft fluker for rt? I'd say that upgrades the talent at S and LB but maybe a step down at RT. all for the same amount of money.

I don't know if those numbers are realistic or not, but not resigning Andre isn't the end of the world AS LONG as they use that money to fill other holes. Now if they let him walk and don't sign any outside free agents I won't be happy.

[Jamie_B]

You guys that want 8 and not 9 a year. How about 8.5 for 5 and add 2.5 frontloaded to the bonus this year?

[-GoBengals-]

no of the FA will be much if any, cheaper, and none of them are really all that young. andre is the best option.. 5 years 46 mil last year being worth 13 mil or so so we can escape it again if needed... kinda like flaccos deal, 6 years 120 mil, the last year is 29+ mil... so the first 5 years its a much more normal deal, they can walk away from flacco in 3 years without HUGE cap penalties..or just restructure..

[Jamie_B]

It doesn't necessarily dilute the talent though.

This is just a rough example but lets say with RT, S and Lb what if the options are signing Andre for 9M a year then draft Elam in the first and a lb in the second.

What if instead they get William Moore from the falcons for 6M a year dj Williams for 3 mil a year at LB then draft fluker for rt? I'd say that upgrades the talent at S and LB but maybe a step down at RT. all for the same amount of money.

I don't know if those numbers are realistic or not, but not resigning Andre isn't the end of the world AS LONG as they use that money to fill other holes. Now if they let him walk and don't sign any outside free agents I won't be happy.

 

Of course it does you take a top end RT and replace him with average to slightly above average guys you'll get average to slightly above average results.

 

I feel like if we lose Andre we will end up treading water on O or maybe take a step back for a year or so waiting on his replacement to grow into the role.

[JBandJoeyV]

 
Of course it does you take a top end RT and replace him with average to slightly above average guys you'll get average to slightly above average results.
 
I feel like if we lose Andre we will end up treading water on O or maybe take a step back for a year or so waiting on his replacement to grow into the role.

You are saying it dilutes the talent but you are only talking about the one position. In my scenario it would add talent to saftey an linebacker but dilute at rt. that doesn't mean it's diluting overall talent on th team.

Yeah but in my scenario, which I am not saying I prefer just saying it could be an option, we would essentially have our entire starting D set. You could arguably go out and go offense with our first three picks. You could go fluker Hopkins Bernard/Franklin.

You could add those three guys on offense, a starting saftey, and starting LB all in one offseason.

It would be hard to argue that would be a bad offseason even if that means losing Andre.

[Jamie_B]

You are saying it dilutes the talent but you are only talking about the one position. In my scenario it would add talent to saftey an linebacker but dilute at rt. that doesn't mean it's diluting overall talent on th team.

Yeah but in my scenario, which I am not saying I prefer just saying it could be an option, we would essentially have our entire starting D set. You could arguably go out and go offense with our first three picks. You could go fluker Hopkins Bernard/Franklin.

You could add those three guys on offense, a starting saftey, and starting LB all in one offseason.

It would be hard to argue that would be a bad offseason even if that means losing Andre.

 

I'm not sure I agree it would be "set" I'd say it would be treading water until we could replace those guys with younger more talented guys. We have a guy that is a top RT that has grown up in our system. Let's not lose that.