1 month out... who you think we take at 21?

[EnglishBengal]

Teo sucks balls.

....and that's why he had a fake girlfriend!   :ninja: 

[akiliMVP]

Surprising to see the top 2 vote getters are wide receivers

[HaydenM]

Surprising to see the top 2 vote getters are wide receivers

That shouldn't be at all surprising. Especially when you consider Marvin has stated their top priority is adding playmakers on offense and finding a way to score more points. Since they haven't addressed it in free agency, it's not hard to figure out they will be taking WR or RB really high.

I laugh at these people so set on safeties and LBs. It may be more realistic if there were any safeties or LBs worthy of that high of a pick, but there's not. People on this board are really overrating players at those positions, I guess because they are so desperate to fill those spots.

Elam is the only guy I'd consider because be is a guy who is at least capable of making impact, game-changing plays. Vaccaro is just a guy. He'll be a solid starter who will do his job, but not a big impact player that you want if you're going to use a 1st round pick on a safety.

[Jamie_B]

That shouldn't be at all surprising. Especially when you consider Marvin has stated their top priority is adding playmakers on offense and finding a way to score more points. Since they haven't addressed it in free agency, it's not hard to figure out they will be taking WR or RB really high.

I laugh at these people so set on safeties and LBs. It may be more realistic if there were any safeties or LBs worthy of that high of a pick, but there's not. People on this board are really overrating players at those positions, I guess because they are so desperate to fill those spots.

Elam is the only guy I'd consider because be is a guy who is at least capable of making impact, game-changing plays. Vaccaro is just a guy. He'll be a solid starter who will do his job, but not a big impact player that you want if you're going to use a 1st round pick on a safety.

 

 

Marvin has also spoken highly of Sanu and his progress.

 

My guess is RB is more likely than WR is. Though I dont think either is out of the question, I'd put a higher percentage of a chance that we take a RB before we take a WR.

 

Also Zimmer himself said he needs LB and S, so I imagine he'd have some input on the pick.

[HaydenM]

 
 
Marvin has also spoken highly of Sanu and his progress.
 
My guess is RB is more likely than WR is. Though I dont think either is out of the question, I'd put a higher percentage of a chance that we take a RB before we take a WR.
 
Also Zimmer himself said he needs LB and S, so I imagine he'd have some input on the pick.

Don't doubt that Zimmer would like a safety or LB, but the top guys who will be available are second or third round prospects. We're not going to pass up top WRs or RBs if they sitting there in order to reach for a LB or whatever who isn't worth that high of a pick.

[stan]

I voted for Lacey,because depending how he does at his workout,he might not be there at 37,especially if he runs a sub 4.5 40. Would also be ok with Tavon Austin or Keenan Allen.

[Jason]

I voted for Lacey,because depending how he does at his workout,he might not be there at 37,especially if he runs a sub 4.5 40. Would also be ok with Tavon Austin or Keenan Allen.

 

If he runs a sub 4.5 (which would shock the hell out of me if he did) he won't be there at 21.

[Jamie_B]

Don't doubt that Zimmer would like a safety or LB, but the top guys who will be available are second or third round prospects. We're not going to pass up top WRs or RBs if they sitting there in order to reach for a LB or whatever who isn't worth that high of a pick.

 

I realize you have them ranked out that way, but I've seen a number of mocks that have LBs and S that have gone around our pick.

 

 

Edit: I've seen Both Ogletree and Brown mocked to the Bears right before is, I've seen Vaccaro mocked to us as well as the Rams right after us, I've seen Elam mocked to the Giants two picks before us....

[HaydenM]

 
I realize you have them ranked out that way, but I've seen a number of mocks that have LBs and S that have gone around our pick.
 
 
Edit: I've seen Both Ogletree and Brown mocked to the Bears right before is, I've seen Vaccaro mocked to us as well as the Rams right after us, I've seen Elam mocked to the Giants two picks before us....

Luckily, the bengals scouting department is smarter than people who pt together mock drafts.

And I don't doub there will be teams who will reach for mediocre players to fill a need. I just doubt the bengals will be one of those teams - especially when you consider he talent that may be available at positions like WR.

[Bengals1181]

Luckily, the bengals scouting department is smarter than people who pt together mock drafts.

And I don't doub there will be teams who will reach for mediocre players to fill a need. I just doubt the bengals will be one of those teams - especially when you consider he talent that may be available at positions like WR.

 

 

 

you do realize the irony of your post, do you not?  Your opinion of these players is no better than the opinions of the people you're mocking.

[Jamie_B]

Luckily, the bengals scouting department is smarter than people who pt together mock drafts.

And I don't doub there will be teams who will reach for mediocre players to fill a need. I just doubt the bengals will be one of those teams - especially when you consider he talent that may be available at positions like WR.

 

 

So let me see if I can deduct this logic here, because Marvin said we need playmakers on the O it means we are more likley to take a WR than a LB or S which Zimmer said we need, but lets go ahead and ignore what Marvin said about Sanu, and if its pointed out that there are LBs and S mocked around our pick well then the Bengals are smarter than the guys doing the mocks. What happens then if we do end up taking a S or LB and leave a WR on the board? What then?

 

The only thing I think we can safely rule out is DT, more than likley TE, and unless something shocking happens QB.

[Jamie_B]

you do realize the irony of your post, do you not?  Your opinion of these players is no better than the opinions of the people you're mocking.

 

 

I'd venture to say that guys like Kirwan, Prisco, ect... likely have watched more tape than he has and likely know a bit more about the game. Now I'm not going to say that means their opinions are the end all be all, but I take a bit more regarding how these guys grade out from those types than I do from some random guy on a message board.

[Oldcat]

Surprising to see the top 2 vote getters are wide receivers

 

Not to me... Cincy fans love their WRs.

[sparky151]

I voted for Allen because I think Austin will be gone by 21. It's not hard to figure out. The offense needs help more than the defense and there are several receivers who would be good value at 21. Jones is the only linebacker who is among the 21 best players in the draft and none of the safeties merit a top 21 pick. Lacy probably doesn't either. So matching need and value suggests a WR early. The strength of this draft is probably in the O-line and since we don't need an O-lineman (I expect Andre to re-sign) that will push other players down to us.

[happyrid]

Assuming Andre is back, I think we probably go RB, WR, S and LB in some order with the first 4 picks.

No idea what that order will be. I think the argument in favor of WR is that it is a "premium position." You see Mike Wallace getting 12 million per year. Harvin getting 12 million per even though he had a year left on his deal and cost a 1st rounder. Brian Hartline getting $6M per year, etc.

Not only the financial premium, but at LB, S and RB, you can probably still get a top 5 guy at the position late in the 2nd round whereas the WRs are likely to start flying off the board pretty quickly in the later part of the 1st round with teams like Minny, St. Louis, Houston, NE, Baltimore, etc. all in the market. If you pass on WR at 21, you likely give up your chance at getting one of the elite prospects at the position.

I think the first round pick will largely be decided by what the Bengals feel the drop off is from the 1st to 2nd round at each position. If they are in love with one specific guy at S, LB or even RB, then taking him in the 1st may be worth it even if they like the 2nd/3rd round prospects. If they have the top 5 RBs or Safeties or LBers all ranked really closely together, then no urgency to grab one round one.

[scharm]

I'd venture to say that guys like Kirwan, Prisco, ect... likely have watched more tape than he has and likely know a bit more about the game. Now I'm not going to say that means their opinions are the end all be all, but I take a bit more regarding how these guys grade out from those types than I do from some random guy on a message board.

 

those guys also have the sources as well.    

[spicoli]

for the purpose of this poll I chose Tavon Austin but I don't think there's a chance in hell he makes it to us at 21.

 

most of these guys could just as easily be the 37th pick as they could the 21st, so what I'm REALLY hoping for is a trade down. 

[happyrid]

for the purpose of this poll I chose Tavon Austin but I don't think there's a chance in hell he makes it to us at 21.
 
most of these guys could just as easily be the 37th pick as they could the 21st, so what I'm REALLY hoping for is a trade down. 

That would be nice. I don't think we really need more picks this year, with 10 already and not a huge number of holes.

What would be awesome is a trade down that doesn't hurt us too bad in this draft that nets us a 1st rounder next year.

Just as an example, Buffalo wants a QB really bad. If they miss out on Geno Smith at 8 and go another direction there, maybe they get desperate and give us their 2013 2nd and 2014 1st. We drop back 20 spots and are still able to get a good RB or S or whatever. Then we have that 1st round lotto ticket that could turn into Jadeveon Clowney or whoever in what looks like a pretty loaded 2014 top 10. Dare to dream...

[bigboi]

I have a feeling that the Bengals might just take DJ Fluker with 21 pick of the aft if Andre smith isn't resigned.and they will probably  draft safety a running back in the second round of the draft.

[alleycat]

Assuming Andre is back, I think we probably go RB, WR, S and LB in some order with the first 4 picks.

No idea what that order will be. I think the argument in favor of WR is that it is a "premium position." You see Mike Wallace getting 12 million per year. Harvin getting 12 million per even though he had a year left on his deal and cost a 1st rounder. Brian Hartline getting $6M per year, etc.

Not only the financial premium, but at LB, S and RB, you can probably still get a top 5 guy at the position late in the 2nd round whereas the WRs are likely to start flying off the board pretty quickly in the later part of the 1st round with teams like Minny, St. Louis, Houston, NE, Baltimore, etc. all in the market. If you pass on WR at 21, you likely give up your chance at getting one of the elite prospects at the position.

I think the first round pick will largely be decided by what the Bengals feel the drop off is from the 1st to 2nd round at each position. If they are in love with one specific guy at S, LB or even RB, then taking him in the 1st may be worth it even if they like the 2nd/3rd round prospects. If they have the top 5 RBs or Safeties or LBers all ranked really closely together, then no urgency to grab one round one.

Ah, finally, a sensible post.

 

Although I'd disagree with RB, and here's why.  Lacy has too many unknowns going for him (injury, speed questions, running behind amazing line), and frankly, I just don't think we need THAT kind of RB as badly as we need a bit more of a game-braker.  Beyond Lacy, I just don't see any RB's who have historical 1st round grades.  Add to that the fact that the 2nd-4th rounds will be dripping with guys who are starter-quality, and there's just too much argument against using the pick there (you could say the exact same about LB's and Safeties in this draft).

 

But RB's are also a non-premium, short shelf life position.  And the point that's being made about premium positions, is most relevant RE: their salaries, not their import to the team (although the argument is clear that these seem to be related).  Under the new salary caps and rookie scales, you are simply getting WAY to much value out of a guy who comes in and performs like a vet as a rookie - for several years.  AJ Green plays like a top 5 guy and isn't getting paid anywhere close to that.  So if you think you can get one of those premium players - especially if you think he can see the field within the year, that's a pretty good pick.

 

But here's are the biggest arguments for WR. First, we all saw what happened when one of our trio went down last year.  Granted, we didn't have the pass-catching RB threat (or hands-catching TE) to compensate, but as we've already discussed here those guys will be available for the next three rounds (and it remains to be seen how we choose to deal with the TE issue).  

 

Second, and people won't like this, there IS a chance that AJ Green decides he wants to move to a different market, have a better QB, etc, and if so it's not a bad idea to take a whack at another true #1 guy if you have the shot.  

 

Lastly, and this is my big-picture point, is Andy Dalton.  We've seen that Andy has done admirably, but has his limits.  If he doesn't take that next step this year, wouldn't you rather have in place all of the pieces around the QB position so the next guy, be it draft pick or vet QB, can come in with those in place? We WILL get the RB this year, so basically you'd have all of the pieces of a top-ranked quality offense (less the QB), along with what will probably again be a top-10 defense on offer when that guy gets here.

 

I think Andy will take the next step this season, but I'd prepare as if he wouldn't.  So who should they take?

 

Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper.   :ninja:

 

(one will be available, mark it down)

 

Who will they take?  I wouldn't want to be making the choice in the first round this year.  For the next 9, it's an easy job...

 

I like Khaseem Greene and Sio Moore almost as much as Arthur Brown or Ogeltree, so I'd wait on LB until 2nd and 3rd.

 

There are a handful of guys with the similar skill set at Safety who will also be there in the 2nd, as well as a lot of big corners who could convert (like David Amerson) and we've already talked at length here about the 4 corners 1 safety set-up being possible), so again, I'd wait until the 2nd.

 

So from this list, that only leaves me with WR.

[alleycat]

That would be nice. I don't think we really need more picks this year, with 10 already and not a huge number of holes.

What would be awesome is a trade down that doesn't hurt us too bad in this draft that nets us a 1st rounder next year.

Just as an example, Buffalo wants a QB really bad. If they miss out on Geno Smith at 8 and go another direction there, maybe they get desperate and give us their 2013 2nd and 2014 1st. We drop back 20 spots and are still able to get a good RB or S or whatever. Then we have that 1st round lotto ticket that could turn into Jadeveon Clowney or whoever in what looks like a pretty loaded 2014 top 10. Dare to dream...

Ten Spots where we can upgrade:

 

1) WLB/MLB (spot Burfict isn't) Howard not on the team and ACL injured, and Lamur is promising but uncertain.

2) SLB - he was an expensive backup, but he's still backup caliber.

3) SS - Crocker is ancient

4) C - If they don't think Robinson is good enough to start, we already know the guy in front of him isn't either.

5) RB2 (Third down guy) - playmaker needed

6) RB1 (Every down guy) - I like BJGE but all of the talk about needing a bellow, coupled with currently having 2 unsigned FA RBs

7) LG - Boiling was a liability late, and Wharton is unknown bc of ACL

8) TE - Gresham is unreliable and could be pushed

9) FB - Pressley coming back from ACL

10)QB2 - It's a cliché, but Tom Brady was taken in the 7th round.

 

Those are basically just guys who would actually be seeing action if they were upgraded, and don't necessarily reflect the starting-caliber depth we'd like to have backing up those positions (granted, for many of them, the guy who's currently starting would provide short-term depth).

 

Finally, this is a very, very good draft to have a lot of picks in.  So if we could trade down and net some extras, I'd be all over it.  I still want to take fliers on people like Walter Stewart. 

[spicoli]

That would be nice. I don't think we really need more picks this year, with 10 already and not a huge number of holes.

 

 

to be honest with ya, it wouldn't hurt my feelings any if they gave up a couple of those 10 picks to move up a few spots to get a guy like Austin....I mean I wouldn't wanna get too crazy or anything, but moving up 3-5 spots to get a playmaker like that would be cool with me.

[EnglishBengal]

Ah, finally, a sensible post.
 
Although I'd disagree with RB, and here's why.  Lacy has too many unknowns going for him (injury, speed questions, running behind amazing line), and frankly, I just don't think we need THAT kind of RB as badly as we need a bit more of a game-braker.  Beyond Lacy, I just don't see any RB's who have historical 1st round grades.  Add to that the fact that the 2nd-4th rounds will be dripping with guys who are starter-quality, and there's just too much argument against using the pick there (you could say the exact same about LB's and Safeties in this draft).
 
But RB's are also a non-premium, short shelf life position.  And the point that's being made about premium positions, is most relevant RE: their salaries, not their import to the team (although the argument is clear that these seem to be related).  Under the new salary caps and rookie scales, you are simply getting WAY to much value out of a guy who comes in and performs like a vet as a rookie - for several years.  AJ Green plays like a top 5 guy and isn't getting paid anywhere close to that.  So if you think you can get one of those premium players - especially if you think he can see the field within the year, that's a pretty good pick.
 
But here's are the biggest arguments for WR. First, we all saw what happened when one of our trio went down last year.  Granted, we didn't have the pass-catching RB threat (or hands-catching TE) to compensate, but as we've already discussed here those guys will be available for the next three rounds (and it remains to be seen how we choose to deal with the TE issue).  
 
Second, and people won't like this, there IS a chance that AJ Green decides he wants to move to a different market, have a better QB, etc, and if so it's not a bad idea to take a whack at another true #1 guy if you have the shot.  
 
Lastly, and this is my big-picture point, is Andy Dalton.  We've seen that Andy has done admirably, but has his limits.  If he doesn't take that next step this year, wouldn't you rather have in place all of the pieces around the QB position so the next guy, be it draft pick or vet QB, can come in with those in place? We WILL get the RB this year, so basically you'd have all of the pieces of a top-ranked quality offense (less the QB), along with what will probably again be a top-10 defense on offer when that guy gets here.
 
I think Andy will take the next step this season, but I'd prepare as if he wouldn't.  So who should they take?
 
Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper.   :ninja:
 
(one will be available, mark it down)
 
Who will they take?  I wouldn't want to be making the choice in the first round this year.  For the next 9, it's an easy job...
 
I like Khaseem Greene and Sio Moore almost as much as Arthur Brown or Ogeltree, so I'd wait on LB until 2nd and 3rd.
 
There are a handful of guys with the similar skill set at Safety who will also be there in the 2nd, as well as a lot of big corners who could convert (like David Amerson) and we've already talked at length here about the 4 corners 1 safety set-up being possible), so again, I'd wait until the 2nd.
 
So from this list, that only leaves me with WR.

Agreed.
The only WR I like outside first 2 picks is Da'rick Rogers in round 3. So it makes sense to take someone like Allen or Hopkins in 1. Not sure if 21 is too high for Hunter. But he's possibly the best fit.

[alleycat]

One observation I'd also make:

There have been a couple of drafts in the last several years where I shrugged at the time, mainly because we ended up taking a player of need that was not necessarily a sexy pick, but was certainly the one being hyped by the talking heads who did the obvious and equated need with who they had slotted. Those picks?

Keith Rivers and Jermaine Gresham.

While many of our other firsts have indeed addressed need, I generally felt like we were getting really good value at the pick at the time (and that included A Smith). This year, I have that same feeling about all of the LB's, safeties, and RBs in the draft. And Fluker/Watson. Mind you, I'd be happy with most of those in the second.

The genius of keeping the holes filled through FA (and of course drafting well), is that you really do have the opportunity to draft BPA.

[Jamie_B]

those guys also have the sources as well.    

 

Yep. I think the dude from that Dallas paper whose name is escaping me has been the most accurate because of his sources.