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Vikings at Bengals - Good, Bad, & Ugly


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1 hour ago, membengal said:

Yeah, that's where I am landing. I respect the thought process, I suspect a better playcall makes it more likely to succeed. But, at least ZT didn't coach scared. 


Cant agree.   Stupid on all levels.  You have all the momentum and are up two touchdowns in the third quarter.  If you succeed you have a first down in your own territory.  If you fail…well, we all saw what can happen when you fail.  Tons of risk, little reward.  

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1 hour ago, UncleEarl said:


Cant agree.   Stupid on all levels.  You have all the momentum and are up two touchdowns in the third quarter.  If you succeed you have a first down in your own territory.  If you fail…well, we all saw what can happen when you fail.  Tons of risk, little reward.  

 

Numbers say different.

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3 minutes ago, membengal said:

 

Numbers say different.

Different.

 

Okay I had just typed up a long winded post when I read this.  I don't believe this puts an appropriate weight on being up by two touchdowns and position on the field.  There's probably several metrics out there that will agree but I just don't see it.  IMHO, this would apply regardless of the percentages attached to success of the play.  It's about risk vs reward.  

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5 minutes ago, membengal said:

 

Numbers say different.

 

Those numbers are an aggregate of good and bad teams.   They don't take into account what kind of team is on either side of the ball.  They don't take into account how the Bengals have blown so many games over the past two years.  We all knew what was going to happen when they didn't make it.  The Bengals are a fragile team.  They don't need the coach putting them in bad spots. 

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5 minutes ago, UncleEarl said:

 

Those numbers are an aggregate of good and bad teams.   They don't take into account what kind of team is on either side of the ball.  They don't take into account how the Bengals have blown so many games over the past two years.  We all knew what was going to happen when they didn't make it.  The Bengals are a fragile team.  They don't need the coach putting them in bad spots. 

The Bengals most likely have a metrics system tailored to their team.  I didn't think they were going to fail because Mixon looked pretty good to me.  Up to this point coaching put them in a good spot.

 

In short, I agree with the metrics of play success but not without someone refining a risk rewards to the final metrics.

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8 minutes ago, Spotto said:

The Good:

We won; man the heart was racing!

 

The Bad:

Alowing 5 sacks on Joe 2.0.

 

The Ugly:

That 4th down play call.

 

The Lucky (for us):

Vikings penalties - 12 for 116yds.

 

Excellent post.  The Lucky > The Ugly

 

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3 minutes ago, Numbers said:

The Bengals most likely have a metrics system tailored to their team.  I didn't think they were going to fail because Mixon looked pretty good to me.  Up to this point coaching put them in a good spot.

 

In short, I agree with the metrics of play success but not without someone refining a risk rewards to the final metrics.

 

Mixon looked pretty good, but that OL wasn't opening gaping holes.  How often have the Bengals converted 4 and 1 in the past few years?  I don't think that would be a good metric.  Was Taylor prepped for that exact situation?  I find that hard to believe.  He made a gut call, and one that even with the 4th down bots numbers, only increased winning chances by 1%.  Too risky considering the losing history of that team.

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FWIW Taylor did address this in his presser.

 

Basic premise:  What you'd expect - he figures it would have put a dagger in the Vikings.  Problem is, we were up 21-0 on the Colts last year and blew it HARD.  So 21 points is historically nothing for us with Taylor.  Sure, yeah, he's confident in his team, yada yada - it's football.  As some were pointing out in this thread, metrics do not take into account MOMENTUM.  We had it, Taylor killed it, simple as that.  He also said he still thinks it was the right move but the wrong play call.  Says he should have called the same one they ran in OT that went to Uzomah. 

 

Actually between him, Joe and Chase talking about that one play in their respective pressers the Bengals are going to have to throw it out 😄.  Every team will assume it's our go-to on 4th or even 3rd and short now.

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10 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

An additional Bad - we almost lost to a team that is starting Nick Vigil. 
 

and send another memo to Mr. Brown - your Ferrari’s will be much more effective if you have a OL. JB still had 5 sacks, not acceptable. 

 

 

And not one of them was caused by either starting tackle. 

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7 hours ago, HavePityPlease said:

FWIW Taylor did address this in his presser.

 

Basic premise:  What you'd expect - he figures it would have put a dagger in the Vikings.  Problem is, we were up 21-0 on the Colts last year and blew it HARD.  So 21 points is historically nothing for us with Taylor.  Sure, yeah, he's confident in his team, yada yada - it's football.  As some were pointing out in this thread, metrics do not take into account MOMENTUM.  We had it, Taylor killed it, simple as that.  He also said he still thinks it was the right move but the wrong play call.  Says he should have called the same one they ran in OT that went to Uzomah. 

 

Actually between him, Joe and Chase talking about that one play in their respective pressers the Bengals are going to have to throw it out 😄.  Every team will assume it's our go-to on 4th or even 3rd and short now.

 

 

I suspect they might give that look on teams and audible out of it so that they can fool them into something else.

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