| - Making the playoffs, math, schedules, etc. - What the last 8 weeks look like. - |

[|High School Harry|]

True, this team has troubles and issues but I am most pissed about wins or solid opportunities to do'

so taken away by the refs.

[Randle P McMurphy]

4 hours ago, GoBengals said:

 

no it isnt. which games do you think they lose? if they are only winning 2 more.  as they dont face a single top 10 offense the remainder of the year, which has been the defenses issue in keeping teams in striking distance of getting wins.

 

I guess the Bengals offense is taking the rest of the year off?!  Special teams too!?  There's 3 facets to every game, not just defense but speaking

of the defense, it won't take a top 10 offense to take the sails out of our defense!  6 of Hendrickson's 11 sacks have come against the opposing

teams 2nd or 3rd string OT's, (Browns and Raiders)  That's just off the top of my head, not doing any research.  Could be more than 6.  Bengals have put up 30+ points 5 times this year and are 2-3 in those games. Twice against the Ravens.  Once against the Raiders, Panthers and Commanders.  How many of those teams have a top 10 defense?!  NONE!   https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2024-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats  Bengals have 7 games left.

5 of those games against teams with top 10 defenses!  

 

5 hours ago, GoBengals said:

this isnt true. with 3 double digit wins out of the 4, youd ahve to be pretty creative to work that math. "no see instead of a touchdown pass joe throws a 99 yard pick 6"

 

nailed it.

 

Answering sarcasm with more sarcasm.  Okay.  Does that make you feel better?  3 double digit wins against 3 teams with a combined record

of 7-22.  Playoffs/SB here we come!.........Nope, no better here but to each their own.  

 

5 hours ago, GoBengals said:

if the bengals scored 26 points each game every game, theyd be 6-4 right now, and had they palyed the titans, chargers, an bbrowns twice already this year instead of the eagles, commanders, and ravens twice, we would probably be 7-3 and everyone talking about the #1 seed not knowing some dumptruck losses we ahead.

 

But they didn't!  

 

6 hours ago, GoBengals said:

it must be nice to just void the worlds realities and have opinions that you fully believe because you just want to. 

 

See your post I quoted above!  

 

5 hours ago, GoBengals said:

they are fucking terrible. if we have a healthy roster and a solid week long prep and gameplan, id expect a victory as well.

 

A lot of your arguments are based on "ifs".  IF we have a healthy roster, a solid week long prep and game plan, I'd expect a victory

every week not just against a team that's, "fucking terrible."  That's just me though.  

[Jamie_B]

ESPN's Playoff Machine is available now.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[Le Tigre]

Always look forward to the Playoff Machine being available! 

[|High School Harry|]

14 hours ago, Le Tigre said:

Always look forward to the Playoff Machine being available! 

I do, too, until I don't.

 

 

[Jamie_B]

I have us splitting with the Steelers and getting the 7 seed, if we sweep them we get the 5

[Bleeds Orange]

I had thought and hoped that 9-8 would stand a chance of getting in, but with DEN now holding the Bengals 2.5 games out of the #7 spot and IND and MIA still in-between, I don't think it will. They'll have to go 2-3 to finish 9-8 and given their schedule, I think they'll do better than that and finish at least 10-7. So the Bengals will have to win out and hope their tiebreaker with DEN is a two-way head-to-head and not some three-way that includes BAL and ends up with them getting left out.

[T-Dub]

On 11/12/2024 at 6:56 PM, High School Harry said:

True, this team has troubles and issues but I am most pissed about wins or solid opportunities to do'

so taken away by the refs.

 

The refs aren't going to block & tackle for us.. Can't get steamrolled in the first half of games then blame bad calls when the comeback falls short.  Show up ready to play and that won't matter so much.

 

I think NFL officiating is biased as hell but this year's team hasn't played well enough to use that excuse.

[Jamie_B]

13 hours ago, Bleeds Orange said:

I had thought and hoped that 9-8 would stand a chance of getting in, but with DEN now holding the Bengals 2.5 games out of the #7 spot and IND and MIA still in-between, I don't think it will. They'll have to go 2-3 to finish 9-8 and given their schedule, I think they'll do better than that and finish at least 10-7. So the Bengals will have to win out and hope their tiebreaker with DEN is a two-way head-to-head and not some three-way that includes BAL and ends up with them getting left out.

 

Denver still has to play the Chargers and Chiefs, as well as us. It's not completely impossible.

[Bleeds Orange]

8 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

 

Denver still has to play the Chargers and Chiefs, as well as us. It's not completely impossible.

 

My thinking was that since they'll get KC in the last game of the season, KC will be resting their starters, but hopefully not. 

[Jamie_B]

14 minutes ago, Bleeds Orange said:

 

My thinking was that since they'll get KC in the last game of the season, KC will be resting their starters, but hopefully not. 

 

Got to root for Buffalo not to lose another game because if they remain undefeated they have the tie breaker against KC, and thus KC would be forced to play their starters in the final game so as not to drop to 2 losses and lose the #1 seed.

[Le Tigre]

Just ran a bunch of Playoff Machine scenarios. Even with just taking out 1 win by either IND/DEN/LAC…a win-out gets 5 seed, and 9-8 gets 6. 
 

All depends on game against DEN and at least a split vs Stealers. Can’t lose any others. 

[KA14_HOF]

1 hour ago, Le Tigre said:

Just ran a bunch of Playoff Machine scenarios. Even with just taking out 1 win by either IND/DEN/LAC…a win-out gets 5 seed, and 9-8 gets 6. 
 

All depends on game against DEN and at least a split vs Stealers. Can’t lose any others. 

 

I wish I could muster the optimism to run Playoff Machine scenarios, but I just don't have it. I'll hope for the best, and watch to the bitter end, but right now I'll be happy if Burrow makes it to the end of the year alive and in one piece.

[|BlackJesus|]

If the Bengals win out they are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs. 

 

On the simulator, I kept getting situations where the Bengals, Dolphins, Texans, and Broncos all finished 10-7 ... but Denver didn't make the playoffs because of the head-to-head vs Cincy. However, Miami, Cincy, and Houston all made it at 10-7. 

 

The Bengals need to root for a Shittsburgh collapse, as they can overtake them within 4 weeks, if the Squeelers lose 4 in a row and the Bengals win 4 in a row (1 vs them). In my predictions, the Squeelers don't even make the playoffs. 

[|BlackJesus|]

A painful image to look at ...

 

[T-Dub]

34 minutes ago, KA14_HOF said:

 

I wish I could muster the optimism to run Playoff Machine scenarios, but I just don't have it. I'll hope for the best, and watch to the bitter end, but right now I'll be happy if Burrow makes it to the end of the year alive and in one piece.

 

Not going anywhere unless 1-2 people on defense have some sudden breakout & start taking over games.

[Le Tigre]

1 hour ago, KA14_HOF said:

 

I wish I could muster the optimism to run Playoff Machine scenarios, but I just don't have it. I'll hope for the best, and watch to the bitter end, but right now I'll be happy if Burrow makes it to the end of the year alive and in one piece.

It’s sort of a dog-chases-tail thing…but it’s fun to muse over what-might-possibly take place. 
 

As it is now, it’s Liverpool being 8 points clear in the Premiere League and getting prepared to play their version of the Stealers on two championship levels: Real Madrid on Wednesday in the Champions League…and Manchester Cheaty on Sunday. 
 

If the Bengals win this Sunday, it will be a great week! 

[KA14_HOF]

Okay, this got me curious so I went and revved up the Playoff Machine...

 

First time through, let's just say we got a really good draft slot.

 

But then I decided to be purely rational & objective, and I'm happy to say the news is all good:

* we finish 10-7 and win the North

* the Bills are the #1 seed and the Chiefs are the #5 seed

* the Ratbirds & Squealers both finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs, but have the best W/L records out of all of the non-playoff teams.

 

I have to say, my level of optimism has probably doubled to ~2% now.

[KA14_HOF]

8 minutes ago, Le Tigre said:

It’s sort of a dog-chases-tail thing…but it’s fun to muse over what-might-possibly take place. 
 

As it is now, it’s Liverpool being 8 points clear in the Premiere League and getting prepared to play their version of the Stealers on two championship levels: Real Madrid on Wednesday in the Champions League…and Manchester Cheaty on Sunday. 
 

If the Bengals win this Sunday, it will be a great week! 

 

Amen!!!

[-GoBengals-]

current status:

 

2.5 games back of a wild card

 

Im going to assume the ravens pass the steelers, steelers currently .5 games up on the ravens in the loss column. if we are going to beat the steelers we alone can put the ravens above them in the division, so here is what is at play(with them swapped):

 

#5 Seed: Steelers at 8-3 remaining schedule: Bengals, Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Browns. Thats the toughest remaining schedule of anyone involved.

#6 Seed: Chargers at 7-4 remaining schedule: Falcons, Chiefs, Broncos, Bucs, Patriots, Raiders. so not a gauntlet by any means, would be tough for them to drop below 10-7.

#7 Seed: Broncos at 7-5 remaining schedule: Browns, Colts, Bengals, Chargers, Chiefs. 3 losable games possible here. they would be 9-8 and possible lose h2h to us?

#8 Seed: Dolphins at 5-6 remaining schedule: Packers, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns, Jets. 2-3 losable games here, they are 1 game up on us, 2.5 up on conf record.

#9 Seed: Colts at 5-7 remaining schedule: Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants, Jags. Easiest path by FAR. 1-2 losable games? 2.5 up on us in conf record.

#10 Seed: Bengals at 4-7 remaining schedule: Steelers, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Broncos, Cowboys. All beatable teams, 2-3 possible losses. Maybe 1 loss possible to get in.

 

Ranking predictions:

 

Steelers: 9-8 only beat the browns

Chargers: 11-6 lose to KC and someone else

Broncos: 9-8 lose to us, kc, and LA

Dolphins: 9-8 lose to Packers and Texans or SF

Colts: 8-9 lose to Broncos and Pats or Jags

Bengals: 9-8 lose to either steelers or cowboys somehow.

 

in thids above scenario we would end as the 8 seed most likely unless common games works in our favor, if it makes it to Conf record the tie breaker thats 4th on list, we are fucked at 2-5 in AFC currently. if we won out, we would be 8-5 in conference and 10-7, if we lose to cowboys only, AFC record would be in our favor more of course.

 

frankly if we lose any game, we need some help, if we win out we are likely in the playoffs as the 7 seed. MAYBE squeeking in as the 6 seed.

[-GoBengals-]

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

 

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third Wild Card (i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2). In situations in which three teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild Card berth.

Other Tie-Breaking Procedures

1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division winners, apply Wild Card tiebreakers.
4. To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tiebreakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
5. To determine the best combined ranking among conference team's in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."

Tie-Breaking Procedure For Selection Meeting

1. Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 18th positions in reverse-standings order.

2. Clubs participating in the playoffs shall select according to the following procedures:

(A) The losers of the Wild Card games shall select in the 19th through 24th positions based on won-loss-tied percentagein reverse-standings order.

(B) The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select in the 25th through 28th positions based on won-loss-tied percentage in reverse-standings order.

(C) The losers of the Conference Championship Games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-loss-tied percentage in reverse-standings order.

(D) The winner of the Super Bowl game shall select last and the Super Bowl loser will select next-to-last.

3. If ties exist in any grouping, such ties shall be broken by figuring the aggregate won-lost-tied percentage of each involved club's regular-season opponents and awarding preferential selection order to the club that faced the schedule of teams with the lowest aggregate won-lost-tied percentage.

4. If ties still exist, apply the Divisional, Conference or Interconference tie-breaking methods, whichever is applicable.

(A) For Divisional or Conference ties, use the procedures on the previous page.

(B) For Interconference ties, use the following procedures:

(i) Ties involving TWO teams from different conferences will be broken by (a) head-to-head meeting; (b) best won-losttied percentage in common games, minimum of four, (c) strength of victory in all games, (d) best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games, (e) best net points in all games, (f) best net touchdowns in all games, and finally (g) coin toss.

(ii) Ties involving THREE-OR-MORE clubs from different conferences will be broken by applying (a) divisional tiebreakers to determine the lowest-ranked team in a division, (b) conference tiebreakers to determine the lowest-ranked team within a conference, and (c) interconference tiesbreakers to determine the lowestranked team in the league. The process will be repeated until the draft order has been established.

After the selection order for the first round of the draft has been determined, clubs originally involved in two-club ties will alternate positions from round to round. In the cases of ties that originally involved three-or-more clubs, the club at the top of a tied segment in a given round will move to the bottom of the segment for the next round, while all other clubs in the segment move up one place. This rotation will continue throughout the draft.

[|BlackJesus|]

[Bleeds Orange]

 

Lloyd Christmas, here. We may not get to have these conversations for much longer, so I'm digging this thread back up.

 

My first impulse was to root for the Colts to beat the Broncos this Sunday, since a Broncos win means they'll then have to lose out. But after looking at the Colts remaining (easy) schedule, we may should root for Denver.

 

As @Jamie_B pointed out last month, if we're still alive going into the final weekend, one key will be for Buffalo to still be battling KC for the #1 seed, and they're currently two games out with four to play. It makes me nauseous to think about it, but it could help us if Pittsburgh beats KC and keeps them from clinching #1, leaving KC with something to play for against Denver in the final game.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bengals-can-still-make-the-nfl-playoffs-if-this-crazy-scenario-plays-out-over-the-final-four-weeks/

 

1. Bengals have to win out
 

Week 15: at Titans
Week 16: vs. Browns
Week 17: vs. Broncos
Week 18: at Stealers

 

2. Broncos have to go 1-3 over their final four games

Week 15: vs. Colts
Week 16: at Chargers 
Week 17: at Bengals
Week 18: vs. Chiefs

 

3. Dolphins go 2-2 over the final four games

Week 15: at Texans
Week 16: vs. 49ers
Week 17: at Browns
Week 18: at Jets

 

4. Colts go 2-2 over their final four games
 

Week 15: at Broncos
Week 16: vs. Titans
Week 17: at Giants
Week 18: vs. Jaguars

 

[KA14_HOF]

I can see Zac getting out-coached by Payton or Tomlin, but provided we run the table, I think the Colts losing twice is the problem.

[sparky151]

Dolphins could easily win their last 3.