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Posted

Great stuff @AmishBengalFan

 

If Wentz goes for KC on Saturday, that could be a tough one to win vs Houston. I assume if KC loses that one, we then need them to beat Pittsburgh in Week17 to minimize what the Stealers have to play for in Week 18.

 

Watch, everything will break our way on Thursday & Saturday, and then we'll go and lose to Cleveland 51-45. (like that could ever happen)

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Posted
23 hours ago, Le Tigre said:

As I recall, the 2 years where that rubbish came into play...was at the end of the 1996 season (Coslet won 7 of the last 9 games--with Blake) and 1997 (Coslet won 6 of the last 8--during the Boomer Fun Ride). There were no such delusions at any other time--at least from my vantage point. 

 

There were lots of years where they would win the last game or two to save their jobs and SoP's delusions would take over. 

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Posted
13 hours ago, TigerJ@w said:

Should not have lost to the stinking Pats and they would've had a real shot to make the playoffs. But I am sure Zac will have them ready at the beginning of the next season too. 

 

Um, the Bengals are 0-7 vs teams with a winning record and 6-1 vs teams with a losing record. We're not making the playoffs. 

Posted
1 hour ago, KA14_HOF said:

Great stuff @AmishBengalFan

 

If Wentz goes for KC on Saturday, that could be a tough one to win vs Houston. I assume if KC loses that one, we then need them to beat Pittsburgh in Week17 to minimize what the Stealers have to play for in Week 18.

 

Watch, everything will break our way on Thursday & Saturday, and then we'll go and lose to Cleveland 51-45. (like that could ever happen)

 

Mahomes practiced fully so they won't be starting Wentz. 

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Posted
14 hours ago, TigerJ@w said:

Should not have lost to the stinking Pats and they would've had a real shot to make the playoffs. But I am sure Zac will have them ready at the beginning of the next season too. 

Not only lost to New England, but lost to them at home.

 

We are still talking about possible playoff scenarios, even though the team's home record is 1-5. I know there are quite a few teams with worse records, but do any of them have fewer home wins than Cincinnati? Haven't researched it but should Cincinnati somehow manage to get into the playoffs, I am sure it would be accomplished with the fewest home wins in NFL history. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, AmishBengalFan said:

Stealers can clinch the North with a win this week against Baltimore.

 

If PIT (10-4) wins the North, there's a good chance they'll be staring at the #3 seed before their final game, as they won't catch KCC (13-1), they're prolly not catching BUF (11-3), and they're a game up on HOU (9-5).  This is especially truewhen looking at these teams schedules over the next two weeks:

 

KCC (HOU PIT DEN)

BUF (NEP NYJ NEP)

PIT (BAL, CLE, CIN)

HOU (KCC BAL TEN)

 

An unmotivated Week 18 PIT team makes our job easier.  But how to we also get a motivated KCC team for that final week?  Read on.

 

Scaling out for a moment, this week's LAC/DEN game will remove one of the two scenarios.  I feel its more probable that DEN will lose their final two (actually, just their final one, since we have to win out and they play us next week), than LAC losing their final two to NEP/LVR. To make it easier for us to hold serve, we want KCC to have something to play for, and we want PIT to -not- have the same, in week 18.

 

So.... here's what I think our rooting interests are:

 

Week 16:

CIN > CLE (naturally)

LAC > DEN  (preserves the Denver scenario)

PIT > BAL (giving them the North)

KCC > HOU (knocking HOU 2 back of PIT with 2 to play, virtually locking them into the #4 seed, and putting KCC out of reach of PIT, locking PIT into #2 or #3 seed)

BUF > NEP (to keep pressure on KCC, and to allow them to remain ahead of PIT)

 

At this point:

KCC 14-1 West Champs

BUF 12-3 East Champs

PIT 11-4 North Champs

HOU 9-6 South Champs

--

BAL 9-6

DEN 9-6

LAC 9-6 (with h2h over CIN, I think they're a clinched Wild Card)

CIN 7-8

 

Week 17:

CIN > DEN (nturally)

PIT > KCC (denying KCC the #1 seed and forcing them to play a meaningful game next week)

BAL > HOU (locking HOU into the #4 seed)

BUF > NYJ (virtually locking PIT out of the #2 seed)

--- at this point, KCC/BUF are fighting over the #1 seed.  Since there's no way BUF is losing to NEP in Week 18, KCC knows they MUST win to take the #1 seed and the bye, PIT knows there's no way they can improve from the #3 seed, and with HOU already locked-in as #4, PIT is virtually locked-in as #3.

 

Week 18:

CIN > PIT (PIT has incentive to rest)

KCC > DEN (KCC secures the bye, eliminates a division foe, and sends CIN to the playoffs to play BUF.  From KC's perspective, just about as good as it gets)

 

Weirdly, if the Week 16/17 games playout as above and PIT does accept the #3 seed without fighting to try to get #2 (hoping for a BUF loss to NEP), them losing HELPS them with the first round matchups.  #3 plays #6, which is probably LAC.  BAL will be the #5 seed as their win vs HOU (wk 17) and presumed win against CLE (wk 18) sends them back to HOU in the playoffs.  PIT as the #3 seed knows they can avoid the toughest two Wild Card opponents.... BAL (5) and CIN (7).  So not only would they get to rest their starters, they get an easier path....

 

To all of this, add one MIA loss and one IND loss and we're good!

 

 

 

I believe Denver or the Chargers need to lose all 3 for use to have a shot. As you mentioned the Chargers have the easier path. So you want to see them beat the Chargers on Thursday. The rest of your scenarios are on point I think,

So we root for the Steelers to win the division (vomit) so they dont have anything to play for in Week 18

 

As I mentioned before in a different thread. 

 

Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, he has to play 2 games within the span of days, against the Texans this week and the Steelers on Xmas day

 

They are 2 games ahead of Buffolo who hold the tiebreaker against them.

 

Best thing they can do is rest Kermit this week and play him the rest of the year.

 

So if the Texans can beat a Kermit-less Chiefs, that would help up out ALOT as they would have to hold pace against Buffolo the rest of the season to stay 1 game ahead

 

Which means the Mahomes injury might be a blessing for us.

Posted
16 minutes ago, dex said:

Not only lost to New England, but lost to them at home.

 

We are still talking about possible playoff scenarios, even though the team's home record is 1-5. I know there are quite a few teams with worse records, but do any of them have fewer home wins than Cincinnati? Haven't researched it but should Cincinnati somehow manage to get into the playoffs, I am sure it would be accomplished with the fewest home wins in NFL history. 

 

Did a quick search, the "worst" team to still make the playoffs appears to be the 2020 WFT with a 7-9 record.


They had 3 wins at home, and since we have to win out to make it, that would mean at worst we'd tie the worst home record to make the playoffs.

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Posted
38 minutes ago, HavePityPlease said:

 

Did a quick search, the "worst" team to still make the playoffs appears to be the 2020 WFT with a 7-9 record.


They had 3 wins at home, and since we have to win out to make it, that would mean at worst we'd tie the worst home record to make the playoffs.

The 2007 Giants also went 3-5 at home. But they won 10 straight road games en route to SB XLII, where they beat the previously unbeaten Patriots.

 

I think their defense was just a tad better than ours, though.

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Posted
51 minutes ago, KA14_HOF said:

The 2007 Giants also went 3-5 at home. But they won 10 straight road games en route to SB XLII, where they beat the previously unbeaten Patriots.

 

I think their defense was just a tad better than ours, though.

 

That seems to be a pattern amongst these "worst teams to make the playoffs" - their defense was the "good" unit.

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Posted

Reminder..... it helps us to make the playoffs if the Chiefs are motivated and the Stealers are not when Week 18 gets here.  For us to get this AND make the playoffs, in my opinion, our rooting interests should be....

 

Week 16:

Chargers > Broncos (check)
Chiefs > Texans (taking the #1 seed off the table for PIT and pushing HOU further behind for the #3 seed)
Stealers > Baltimore (gives PIT the division, opens a 2 game lead over HOU, pretty much locking them into the #2/#3 slot)

Bengals > Current Team Named Browns (naturally)

Titans > Colts (to put IND out of our misery)

Bills > Patriots (keeps pressure on KCC, keeps BUF 1 game ahead of PIT)

49ers > Dolphins (to knock MIA out)

 

Week 17:

Stealers > Chiefs (prevents KCC from clinching #1 seed)

Bengals > Broncos (naturally)

Bills > Jets (puts BUF 1 game behind KCC, pressuring KCC)

Cleveland's Football Team > Dolphins (if MIA hasn't lost already)

Giants > Colts (if IND hasn't lost already)

 

At this point, KCC is 1 up on BUF (BUF holds the tiebreak), and BUF is 1 up on PIT.  HOU is locked in as #4.  BUF plays NEP in week 18.... no chance they let this get away, I'm assuming they win, I'm assuming KCC knows this and will be motivated to beat DEN, and I'm assuming PIT knows this and has nothing to play for.

 

Yeah....  I would love to see KCC lose to HOU today, but a KCC victory helps us more.

 

 

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Posted

Got the KCC win, but not the PIT win.

 

Need to look at the Playoff Machine to see if PIT can clinch next week.  If they can, their loss today and a hoped for BUF win over NEP week puts the 1 and 2 seeds completely out of their reach. But with BAL playing HOU next week, even a PIT clinch (which presumably requires a win + BAL loss) leaves them only 1 game up on HOU, and with motivation to win to avoid falling to #4 and likely facing #5 BAL in the Wild Card round.

 

Regardless, the "PIT motivation" part is just frosting.... the "cake" is us beating them, and that frosting was only to make it a little easier.

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Posted
51 minutes ago, AmishBengalFan said:

Got the KCC win, but not the PIT win.

 

Need to look at the Playoff Machine to see if PIT can clinch next week.  If they can, their loss today and a hoped for BUF win over NEP week puts the 1 and 2 seeds completely out of their reach. But with BAL playing HOU next week, even a PIT clinch (which presumably requires a win + BAL loss) leaves them only 1 game up on HOU, and with motivation to win to avoid falling to #4 and likely facing #5 BAL in the Wild Card round.

 

Regardless, the "PIT motivation" part is just frosting.... the "cake" is us beating them, and that frosting was only to make it a little easier.

Pit can’t clinch the division next week.  If  Bal beats Cle week 18 and the Bengals beat Pit, the Ravens would get the tiebreaker on division record.

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Posted
1 hour ago, T-Dub said:

 

and a 5th down or phantom PI here & there helps

Could help yeah.

The truth is they have a dynasty going on no matter how people want to perceive it.

 

They're the top dog and have been for a number of years now.

Beat the Chiefs in the playoffs to reach the SB.

 

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, claptonrocks said:

Could help yeah.

The truth is they have a dynasty going on no matter how people want to perceive it.

 

They're the top dog and have been for a number of years now.

Beat the Chiefs in the playoffs to reach the SB.

 

 

Not that some of the calls they get aren't vomit-inducing, but 6 straight Conference Championship games and 4 Super Bowl appearances is more than just the refs following a script. (BTW, the 2 AFC CCG's they lost were both in OT)

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Posted
13 hours ago, ctfan73 said:

Pit can’t clinch the division next week.  If  Bal beats Cle week 18 and the Bengals beat Pit, the Ravens would get the tiebreaker on division record.

Yup.... no matter what happens next week, PIT and BAL will both still be fighting for the AFC North. If one wins week 18 and the other loses, that's your winner.  The tiebreakers if they don't separate this week and finish tied will come down to Common Opponents, then AFC Record.   PIT is 2-1 against their unique (non-common) opponents, beating ATL+NYJ but losing to IND, BAL is 2-0 against their unique opponents, beating TBB+BUF and playing HOU next week. So PIT is 8-4 vs common opponents and BAL is 8-5

 

If PIT + BAL both win:

-- both will be 11-5 overall, 1-1 head to head, 3-2 division.

-- PIT will be 9-4 vs common, BAL 8-5

-- PIT needs only a win or BAL loss to take the North (because a tie will go to Common Opponents)

 

If PIT + BAL both lose:

-- both will be 10-6 overall, 1-1 head to head, 3-2 division

-- Both will be 8-5 vs common

-- PIT will be 7-4 vs AFC, BAL will be 6-5

-- PIT needs only a win or BAL loss to take the North (bceause a tie will go to AFC Record, as Common Opponents is tied)

 

And if either open a one-game lead next week, they need only to win (or have the other lose) to take the North

 

So PIT will be motivated in week 18.  We'll just have to beat them square-up.

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