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Egypt


Jamie_B

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[quote name='Homer_Rice' timestamp='1296606031' post='967426']
[img]http://i.imgur.com/tgo9W.jpg[/img]
[/quote]
The positive changes that took (are taking) place in Iraq are infinitely larger than the ones that Egypt will see. This is undeniable and pertains to every facet imaginable. Also, a revolution and/or uprising assisted by third parties is incomparable to an invasion. There are a million things wrong with this photograph and comparison.*


*Disclaimer: I did not, and do not believe getting involved in Iraq was a good idea, nor do I believe it was ever designed to 'liberate' the populace.
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[quote name='Nati Ice' timestamp='1296606932' post='967430']
The positive changes that took (are taking) place in Iraq are infinitely larger than the ones that Egypt will see. This is undeniable and pertains to every facet imaginable. Also, a revolution and/or uprising assisted by third parties is incomparable to an invasion. There are a million things wrong with this photograph and comparison.*


*Disclaimer: I did not, and do not believe getting involved in Iraq was a good idea, nor do I believe it was ever designed to 'liberate' the populace.
[/quote]
I'm not sure what to think about recent events in the Maghreb and Egypt now. Geopolitically speaking, there's some new ground being broken here. All I can say for sure is that there are two tendencies in play. First, this appears to be (at least in significant part) a genuinely popular response to decades of oppression in the region--in the context of a global economic breakdown. Second, there's not a doubt in my mind that the current "shapers" of conventional geopolitical arrangements are doing their best to garner some advantage from these events, according to whatever set of parochial interests they hold. So, my first guess is that many intelligence agencies with vital interests in the region are doing the best they can to get out from behind the eight-ball here. Unless, of course, one/some conventional geopolitical interests/nations see some medium to long term advantage in helping to create further instability in the world, which is a distinct possibility. In that case, then what were seeing is simply another case of creating and using a mob to reconfigure the pieces on the board.

That said, what amused me about the picture is its implicit commentary about how the Iraq "liberation" was sold to a naive American/British population. Insofar as how events have played out in Iraq, your view is somewhat more optimistic than mine.
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[quote name='Homer_Rice' timestamp='1296609749' post='967442']
I'm not sure what to think about recent events in the Maghreb and Egypt now. Geopolitically speaking, there's some new ground being broken here. All I can say for sure is that there are two tendencies in play. First, this appears to be (at least in significant part) a genuinely popular response to decades of oppression in the region--in the context of a global economic breakdown. Second, there's not a doubt in my mind that the current "shapers" of conventional geopolitical arrangements are doing their best to garner some advantage from these events, according to whatever set of parochial interests they hold. So, my first guess is that many intelligence agencies with vital interests in the region are doing the best they can to get out from behind the eight-ball here. Unless, of course, one/some conventional geopolitical interests/nations see some medium to long term advantage in helping to create further instability in the world, which is a distinct possibility. In that case, then what were seeing is simply another case of creating and using a mob to reconfigure the pieces on the board.

That said, what amused me about the picture is its implicit commentary about how the Iraq "liberation" was sold to a naive American/British population. Insofar as how events have played out in Iraq, your view is somewhat more optimistic than mine.
[/quote]
The sad thing is that my view on Iraq is not that optimistic. I believe that it CAN succeed, nothing more. However, this will take decades of random violent outbreaks due to a power vacuum existing between political and religious factions, with human rights being a corollary. Keep an eye on Muqtada.

Egypt will become Iran v2.0 if actual change comes from this (not that the current regime isn't oppressive). I don't believe an actual democracy will rise from this, and I fully expect little to no change.

I see the odds being fair that Egypt would thus require ANOTHER revolution, whereas the current structure of the Iraqi regime may be a viable option for the future (problems existing with parliament, notwithstanding).
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[quote name='Nati Ice' timestamp='1296610867' post='967465']
The sad thing is that my view on Iraq is not that optimistic. I believe that it CAN succeed, nothing more. However, this will take decades of random violent outbreaks due to a power vacuum existing between political and religious factions, with human rights being a corollary. Keep an eye on Muqtada.

Egypt will become Iran v2.0 if actual change comes from this (not that the current regime isn't oppressive). I don't believe an actual democracy will rise from this, and I fully expect little to no change.

I see the odds being fair that Egypt would thus require ANOTHER revolution, whereas the current structure of the Iraqi regime may be a viable option for the future (problems existing with parliament, notwithstanding).
[/quote]
[url="http://forum.go-bengals.com/index.php?showtopic=14537&view=findpost&p=221648"]I posted these observations here back in February 2006.[/url]

I wrote this about 20 years ago for a grad seminar. It's pretty long but it might provide some useful tangential background about what little I know of this region.[attachment=823:essays_hist_aswan.html]

Insofar as Iraq goes: I'm generally opposed to the use of the American military unless absolutely necessary. So it shouldn't be a surprise when I say (in my opinion) that both Gulf Wars were reckless and abusive--not only to those we fought but also for what it has done to our country as well. Especially when you see [url="http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/01/military-michele-bachmann-veterans-budget-cuts-012811w/"]crap like this[/url] that came out a few days ago--from the same side of the aisle which purports to be uber-patriotic.

And I agree with you that some radical changes need to be made in the entire region and that sadly this will probably entail even more bloodshed, though I hope not. To me, the biggest impediment to more peaceful transitions is always the entrenched interests of the "big guys"--whatever countries which happen to embody "realpolitick" in any given historical period. Same as it has always been.
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[quote name='Homer_Rice' timestamp='1296615753' post='967511']

Insofar as Iraq goes: I'm generally opposed to the use of the American military unless absolutely necessary. So it shouldn't be a surprise when I say (in my opinion) that both Gulf Wars were reckless and abusive--not only to those we fought but also for what it has done to our country as well.

And I agree with you that some radical changes need to be made in the entire region and that sadly this will probably entail even more bloodshed, though I hope not. To me, the biggest impediment to more peaceful transitions is always the entrenched interests of the "big guys"--whatever countries which happen to embody "realpolitick" in any given historical period. Same as it has always been.
[/quote]

No amount of changes in the region will work without some form of troops and money on the ground. There will be further bloodshed.

We can not do away with those entrenched interests without some sort of divine intervention. Hopefully they're reading this board right now. Since we all know they don't, then I guess this stuff will continue.

The Gulf wars were more abusive (IMO) to the family of those over there. Ask my mother which had 5 stars in her window at the same time. Even my grandmother during WW2 never had that many (she had 4). At least the service members were eligible for MH care but the families were not unless it came out of their own pockets.

Want to curb the ability of a politicians need to send troops in harm's way ? Make it 100% across the board with ZERO exceptions that all US citizens must serve in the military and be capable of being deployed in a combat zone when they come of age. Imagine, just for one moment, if a politician had to be concerned about his precious daughters or sons being deployed... They would know what my mother and grandmother surely felt. Nope, that's not going to happen either...

I truly do not like being this pessimistic but I do not see a happy ending to all of this.
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[quote name='Numbers' timestamp='1296658788' post='967554']
No amount of changes in the region will work without some form of troops and money on the ground. There will be further bloodshed.

We can not do away with those entrenched interests without some sort of divine intervention. Hopefully they're reading this board right now. Since we all know they don't, then I guess this stuff will continue.

The Gulf wars were more abusive (IMO) to the family of those over there. Ask my mother which had 5 stars in her window at the same time. Even my grandmother during WW2 never had that many (she had 4). At least the service members were eligible for MH care but the families were not unless it came out of their own pockets.

[color="#FF0000"]Want to curb the ability of a politicians need to send troops in harm's way ? Make it 100% across the board with ZERO exceptions that all US citizens must serve in the military and be capable of being deployed in a combat zone when they come of age. Imagine, just for one moment, if a politician had to be concerned about his precious daughters or sons being deployed... They would know what my mother and grandmother surely felt. Nope, that's not going to happen either...[/color]

I truly do not like being this pessimistic but I do not see a happy ending to all of this.
[/quote]


I truly believe that the Vietnam protests were less about peace and more about I don't want to get drafted. It would be a good war deterrent.
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[quote name='Jamie_B' timestamp='1296661666' post='967565']
I truly believe that the Vietnam protests were less about peace and more about I don't want to get drafted. It would be a good war deterrent.
[/quote]

Yes, it would in a world governed by Ricardo Montalbán and Hervé Villechaize.

[img]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_V5SReiHuxbs/THLBcj7hmhI/AAAAAAAADgc/bSUQupA5MeI/s1600/4+fanta.jpg[/img]

There is a whole book that can be written about the protesters during that time frame. Multiple factors involved and many of them had little to do with being drafted. I fear Homer Rice and his costume will be coming out soon...
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[quote name='Rumble In the Jungle' timestamp='1296598233' post='967391']
I think we should just steel their pyramids!!!!
[/quote]

Hell, if we did that they would last a lot longer...there's a lot of erosion in the desert, and steel would definitely help slow that down. Good thinking, Rumble.
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[center][IMG]http://i83.photobucket.com/albums/j318/Tredcrow/2011/egypt.gif[/IMG]

[size="3"][font="Book Antiqua"]"The United States so far, is essentially following the usual playbook. There have been many times when some favored dictator has lost control or been in danger of losing control. There is kind of a standard routine i.e. François Duvalier, Nicolae Ceauşescu, Suharto. Keep supporting them as long as possible, then when it becomes unsustainable - typically say if the Army shifts sides - switch 180 degrees, claim to have been on the side of the people all along, erase the past, and then make whatever moves are possible to restore the old system under new names. I presume that is what is happening now, they are waiting to see if Mubarak can hang on, as it appears he is intending to do."

[b]— Noam Chomsky, February 2, 2011[/b][/center][/font][/size]

http://www.democracynow.org/2011/2/2/noam_chomsky_this_is_the_most
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Interesting that the new "VP" that the USA wants to take transitional power, Suleiman, was the CIA's point man on their black torture/rendition sites.

No doubt there to deliver "freedom" and "democracy" to the people of Egypt.

[quote]WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately and turn over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats said Thursday.[/quote]

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/egypt-crisis-omar-suleiman-cia-rendition/story?id=12812445

[quote]The intelligence chief tapped by Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak as his vice president and potential successor aided the U.S. with its rendition program, intelligence experts told ABC News, and oversaw the torture of an Al Qaeda suspect whose information helped justify the U.S. invasion of Iraq.[/quote]

lol?
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How come USA always has to help? Why do they always ask us? When we accept, why do we have to foot the bill too? It should be like when I pay the tivo guy to come fix shit, the tivo guy doesn't come on his own dime.
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