Who Will Make the Playoffs?

[Bleeds Orange]

[quote name='Oldcat' timestamp='1324317504' post='1077055']

The same thing was true this week about Miami, but they went and kicked the snot out of the Bills.
[/quote]

True, but the Bills aren't as good as the Jets and had nothing to really play for, other than pride. I also think that it being the last weekend of the season might play into it for the Dolphins, but I could be wrong about that. I hope I am.

[BeatPurdue]

The Dolphins are being underestimated in this thread. I think they have a better shot against the Jets than the Giants. Heck, Miami is better than half the teams making the playoffs.

[oldschooler]

[b][size=6][u][color=#0066CC]Go Bengals…and Giants [/color][/u][/size][/b]
[size=4]Posted by Dan Hoard Posted on December 19, 2011 – 12:22 pm [/size]


I love the New York Giants. At least for the next six days.

If the Bengals beat Arizona on Sunday [b]and[/b] the Jets lose at home to the Giants, Cincinnati will have a one game lead in the Wild Card race going into the final Sunday of the season.

So for the moment, forget about the 11 penalties, 3 fumbles, and inability to move the ball in short yardage situations in Sunday’s 20-13 win over the Rams and enjoy the fact that the Bengals playoff hopes are very much alive.

“Amen brother,” said Andrew Whitworth. “When it’s December in the NFL — a win is a win. We’re trying to get into the playoffs and we have two games at home. Those are going to be exciting games.”

“We started the season with two on the road and the fact that we end with two at home is awesome,” said head coach Marvin Lewis.
And speaking of awesome, there’s A.J. Green.

On a day where Cedric Benson put the ball on the ground three times, Jermaine Gresham had as many false starts as catches, and Andy Dalton had more tackles than touchdown passes, the rookie wide receiver from Georgia finished with six catches for 115 yards to go over 1000 receiving yards for the season.

“I’m just going to continue to get better,” said Green. “I’m just trying to lead this team to the playoffs and potentially to a Super Bowl.”

Green suffered a Grade 3 shoulder sprain in the second quarter and had his right arm in a sling on the flight home, but A.J. left little doubt that he’ll be able to play on Saturday.

“It’s just an AC joint sprain – I’ve had it before and it’s nothing serious,” said Green. “I’m not going to miss these last two games for nothing. You would have to break my leg or something for me to miss these last two games. I’m just ready to get back out there and stay in the playoff hunt.”

“I bet Bengals Nation collectively took a big gulp when A.J. went down – I know I did,” said my broadcasting partner Dave Lapham. “They’re a different team without A.J. on the field. The trickle-down effect on an A.J. Green injury would be dramatic.”

Even with Green, the Bengals are not likely to beat the Cardinals – winners of six of their last seven – if they keep going backward on offense due to penalties.

It’s interesting to note that the Bengals are actually averaging more penalties in their wins (6.6 for 58.6 yards) than in their losses (6 for 53.8 yards). But in the St. Louis game, three drives began with penalties.

“Too many first down penalties,” said offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. “If we want to go where we want to go, we have to play better on first down. We had two or three false starts and two or three holding calls that really set us back. In this league, when you’re first-and-15 or first-and-20, it’s going to be difficult.”

“We’ve got to clean it up if we want to win these last two,” said Whitworth. “It’s not about being good enough – it’s about not shooting yourself in the foot. That’s what the good teams do down the stretch. They don’t hurt themselves.”

The Bengals also have to do a better job in short yardage situations. They failed to move the chains twice on third-and-one and once on fourth-and-one.

“Our short yardage offense was putrid,” said Gruden.

“You have to come off of the line of scrimmage with low pads and they’re not doing that right now,” said Lapham. “They’re not even getting stalemates – they’re getting knocked backwards.
That won’t cut it against a Cardinals team that still has long-shot hopes of going to the playoffs. An overtime win over Cleveland on Sunday evened Arizona’s record at 7-7.

So what’s Marvin’s message this week?

“Just do your job,” said Coach Lewis. “Just make sure you’re being consistent in doing your job all of the time.”

Here’s hoping the Giants do the same thing.

I’d love to hear from you at [email="Dan.Hoard@bengals.nfl.net"]Dan.Hoard@bengals.nfl.net[/email]

If you Twitter, you can follow my tweets at [url="http://twitter.com/Dan_Hoard"]http://twitter.com/Dan_Hoard[/url]

And I’m on Facebook. Just search for Dan Hoard and look for the photo of me with the handsome lad.




[url="http://blogs.bengals.com/2011/12/19/go-bengals-and-giants/"]http://blogs.bengals...als-and-giants/[/url]

[scharm]

[quote name='Bleeds Orange' timestamp='1324316190' post='1077043']
I know Miami has been playing better, but I just don't see them beating the Jets in Week 17. The Jets will have everything in the world to play for, while the Dolphins will be looking to finish out the season and go home for the winter. I think the Dolphins may give them a good game, but when it gets down to crunch time, the Jets are going to need it more and want it more. They will be desperate for a win and the Dolphins won't be.

I'm afraid that unless the Giants can knock off the Jets this weekend, the Bengals won't get in.
[/quote]

For some reason I think Jets/Miami last game showdown has happened before. Can't remember what was on the line, but I think jets shit the bed.

[Farbeyonddriven]

“Just do your job,” said Coach Lewis. “Just make sure you’re being consistent in doing your job all of the time.”

That sounds familiar...

[Jamie_B]

Sweet Dan Hoard mentioned our site.

[Bleeds Orange]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1324270125' post='1076919']
So as much as it pains me to say it, I think we are looking for the Steelers to win tomorrow night. The Steelers are going to beat the rams, I have no doubt, the Browns could give the Ravens a game, but lets say that the Ravens win. We need to get flexed into the night spot and Steelers to win the day game, so no matter what the Ravens are entrenched into that 5th spot and they have nothing at all to play for.

Unfortunately, I think it's in our best interest to root for those cocksuckers.
[/quote]

Well, so much for that. The one time since 2003 that I actually was hoping those bastards would win a game and they lay an egg. Assuming both the Stealers and Ravens win next week, they'll head into the final game tied for first place. In other words, the Ravens-Bengals game is likely to determine whether they are division champions or not. So if we're going to beat them, it will be with them giving it their all.

Just have to take consolation in getting to see the Stealers getting blown out on MNF.

[Oldcat]

[quote name='Bleeds Orange' timestamp='1324358942' post='1077311']

Well, so much for that. The one time since 2003 that I actually was hoping those bastards would win a game and they lay an egg. Assuming both the Stealers and Ravens win next week, they'll head into the final game tied for first place. In other words, the Ravens-Bengals game is likely to determine whether they are division champions or not. So if we're going to beat them, it will be with them giving it their all.

Just have to take consolation in getting to see the Stealers getting blown out on MNF.
[/quote]

It seems easier to get the Ravens locked into the 2 slot or 3 slot and also have nothing to play for. It would have been hard to get the Steelers so far ahead that the last game might not have been useful for them to tie them and win the division.

[JC]

[quote name='Bleeds Orange' timestamp='1324358942' post='1077311']

Well, so much for that. The one time since 2003 that I actually was hoping those bastards would win a game and they lay an egg. Assuming both the Stealers and Ravens win next week, they'll head into the final game tied for first place. In other words, the Ravens-Bengals game is likely to determine whether they are division champions or not. So if we're going to beat them, it will be with them giving it their all.

Just have to take consolation in getting to see the Stealers getting blown out on MNF.
[/quote]
Yes.

Turds. Maybe I should root for them all the time..

[oldschooler]

[b] [size=6][url="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2011/12/19/breaking-down-the-jets-and-bengals-and-the-sixth-spot/"]Breaking down the Jets and Bengals and the sixth spot[/url][/size][/b]
[list]
[*]12/19/11 at 11:04pm
[*]Written by [email="jreedy@enquirer.com"]jreedy[/email]
[/list]

Ever since the Bengals beat the Rams and the Jets lost to the Eagles, there have been plenty of questions about where the Bengals stand in terms of tiebreakers and what needs to happen for them to get the sixth and final playoff spot. There is still a chance that the Chargers, Raiders or Titans could work their way into the mix too, but they need help. For the moment, we’ll focus on the Bengals and Jets since both are 8-6.

[u][b]EASIEST SCENARIOS FOR BENGALS TO GET IN[/b][/u]

Bengals win out and Jets lose to either the Giants or Dolphins.

If the Bengals lose to the Cardinals on Saturday and the Jets beat the Giants, the Bengals would need to beat the Ravens and have the Jets lose to the Dolphins. Both teams would be 9-7 but Bengals would win tiebreak based on better conference record.

[u][b]NOW THE COMPLICATED ONE …[/b][/u]

Say both teams win out and finish 10-6. They haven’t played each other this year so head-to-head doesn’t apply, they both would be 7-5 in the conference and 3-2 when facing common opponents. The fourth tiebreak is strength of victory in which the Bengals trail the Jets by 11 wins. The Jets eight wins (seven opponents) are 45-67 while the Bengals eight wins (seven opponents) are 34-78.

For those keeping track at home the Jets have beat the Bills twice, Jaguars, Chargers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cowboys and Redskins. The Bengals beat the Browns twice, Jaguars, Colts, Titans, Seahawks, Bills and Rams.

It is mathematically possible for the Bengals to catch the Jets but they would need all the stars to line up for it to happen. One of the blog readers and Twitter followers (@stevenwolfjr) [url="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ankt1DYRp8UidHNHUFVaZmdtbnM2cXBLMVJiVjhsX1E#gid=0"]added it up on a spreadsheet[/url] where the Bengals opponents get 60 wins to the Jets 59, but the odds are long. How unlikely? Here’s one possible scenario …



(Click the link for the entire article)


[url="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2011/12/19/breaking-down-the-jets-and-bengals-and-the-sixth-spot/"]http://cincinnati.co...the-sixth-spot/[/url]

[JBandJoeyV]

That spreadsheet actually helps a lot to track the SOV.

[Bleeds Orange]

[quote name='Oldcat' timestamp='1324360422' post='1077312']

It seems easier to get the Ravens locked into the 2 slot or 3 slot and also have nothing to play for. It would have been hard to get the Steelers so far ahead that the last game might not have been useful for them to tie them and win the division.
[/quote]

If the Stealers had won, all it would have taken would have been for them to win out over the Rams and Browns and have the Bengals-Ravens game flexed to SNF for the game to have been meaningless to the Ravens. The Ravens would have taken the field at PBS 1.5 games out of first, with no chance at winning the division and getting the bye. (On the other hand, if the game is left at 1:00pm, they would've been holding out hope for a win and a Pittsburgh loss, so they'd been playing to win anyway.) As it stands now, assuming they (Pit and Bal) both win Saturday (likely), then the Bengals game will determine whether or not the Ravens win the division.

[Oldcat]

[quote name='Bleeds Orange' timestamp='1324396023' post='1077368']

If the Stealers had won, all it would have taken would have been for them to win out over the Rams and Browns and have the Bengals-Ravens game flexed to SNF for the game to have been meaningless to the Ravens. The Ravens would have taken the field at PBS 1.5 games out of first, with no chance at winning the division and getting the bye. (On the other hand, if the game is left at 1:00pm, they would've been holding out hope for a win and a Pittsburgh loss, so they'd been playing to win anyway.) As it stands now, assuming they (Pit and Bal) both win Saturday (likely), then the Bengals game will determine whether or not the Ravens win the division.
[/quote]

Not if we are flexed and Pitt loses either week.

[|High School Harry|]

Not at all a huge fan of this "backing in" and depending on other people horse puckey
BUT... I/we will take it any way we can get it.

I'm not very good at this sort of thing, anyway, but things have changed
with both the Starlings and Squeels losing.

That said... what has to happen?

[BigDawgBengal]

To make it simple...Win out and the Jets lose one of the last two games.

[Oldcat]

[quote name='High School Harry' timestamp='1324398311' post='1077379']
Not at all a huge fan of this "backing in" and depending on other people horse puckey
BUT... I/we will take it any way we can get it.

I'm not very good at this sort of thing, anyway, but things have changed
with both the Starlings and Squeels losing.

That said... what has to happen?
[/quote]

for us, no change - our competition is with the Jets. We are locked into 3rd in the division. The only wild card is if we can get the Rats to lie down on week 17. Looks like we won't.

[JBandJoeyV]

Go to the other thread that already goes over all of this

[TheBeaverHunter]

So with all of the scenarios we HAVE to beat Baltimore???

[Le Tigre]

No, not if the Jets lose both of their remaining games. We do have to win one of two in that circumstance however.

[ctfan73]

[quote name='Le Tigre' timestamp='1324403283' post='1077393']
No, not if the Jets lose both of their remaining games. We do have to win one of two in that circumstance however.
[/quote]
Right, but if the Bengals go 9-7 and the Jets go 8-8, a tie with Oakland, SD or Denver would not be good.

[turningpoint]

I would love to see this, it would just amazing to see.


8-8 SD
8-8 Oak
8-8 Denver
8-8 KC

[Rumble In the Jungle]

actually I heard Dave Lapham on the radio yesterday saying if we lose to the Cards and beat the Ravens but the Jets lose to the Giants and beat Miami that we'd still get in over them.

[|High School Harry|]

[quote name='Rumble In the Jungle' timestamp='1324411348' post='1077431']
actually I heard Dave Lapham on the radio yesterday saying if we lose to the Cards and beat the Ravens but the Jets lose to the Giants and beat Miami that we'd still get in over them.
[/quote]

I thought I heard something like that, too, and wondered how the Sqeels loss affected it.
It all kind of hinges on a Jets loss somewhere. They are almost coming into a tie for second place behind the Squeels as
my most disliked team.

[top6]

[quote name='Rumble In the Jungle' timestamp='1324411348' post='1077431']
actually I heard Dave Lapham on the radio yesterday saying if we lose to the Cards and beat the Ravens but the Jets lose to the Giants and beat Miami that we'd still get in over them.
[/quote]
I seriously doubt he said this, but if he did he was wrong. If we lose to the Cards in the week 16, and the Jets beat the Dolphins in week 17, they get in over us no matter what happens in any other game.

If we lose to the Cards and beat the Ravens, and the Jets beat the Giants and lose to Miami, we would still get in over the Jets. However, we would also need the Chargers and Raiders to each lose 1 game in order to get in over them, and they play each other in Week 17. (Note, in that scenario, we would also get in if the Chargers and Raiders both won in week 16 but tied each other in week 17.)

People keep saying we will still be alive going into week 17 no matter what happens, but from what I can tell that's only barely true. If we lose to the Cardinals this week, and the Chargers and Raiders both win, then we are eliminated unless ALL of the following happens in Week 17: (1) we beat the Ravens; (2) the Jets lose to the Dolphins; and (3) (most improbably) the Raiders and Chargers tie.

[Rumble In the Jungle]

[quote name='top6' timestamp='1324412902' post='1077452']
I seriously doubt he said this, but if he did he was wrong. If we lose to the Cards in the week 16, and the Jets beat the Dolphins in week 17, they get in over us no matter what happens in any other game.

If we lose to the Cards and beat the Ravens, and the Jets beat the Giants and lose to Miami, we would still get in over the Jets. However, we would also need the Chargers and Raiders to each lose 1 game in order to get in over them, and they play each other in Week 17. (Note, in that scenario, we would also get in if the Chargers and Raiders both won in week 16 but tied each other in week 17.)

People keep saying we will still be alive going into week 17 no matter what happens, but from what I can tell that's only barely true. If we lose to the Cardinals this week, and the Chargers and Raiders both win, then we are eliminated unless ALL of the following happens in Week 17: (1) we beat the Ravens; (2) the Jets lose to the Dolphins; and (3) (most improbably) the Raiders and Chargers tie.
[/quote]

I think he said the Giants! maybe he said the Dolphins. But yes, if we lose to the Cards and beat the Ravens and the Jets scenario whichever correct one plays out then we're in.