Marvin's horrible decision

[|High School Harry|]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1349708249' post='1167980']
I just think you gotta believe that its not gonna be the last time your team scores, especially when your defense was playing well and your offense has been a pretty good 4th quarter unit.

Plus, at that point you knew you couldn't run on the Dolphins, so that limits your play selection on the 2pt conversion.


I think you can come down on either side of the discussion, and neither side is going to be definitively right or wrong.

If the offense takes care of its business though, we're never even having this discussion.
[/quote]

I don't think we are even agreeing to disagree and I like the way this is going... I like and respect your discussion, insight and input and see your thinking. Much better than the name calling, etc. that too often comes from this.

I think I was thinking a couple things here... after seeing the fake field goals and punt attempts and other things being pulled off on special teams and offense I had more confidence in making the two points via something like that. Leonard can sometimes pull off something in situations like this.
But I can also see the thinking of if we can't make third downs, what makes me think we could do this?

I was not thinking run at all because...
I am beginning to think that BJGE is showing to be not that great. And I am not talking fumbles because those things happen.
We're going to have to go with him no matter what at this point.

[Hooky]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1349708532' post='1167983']
if you can't trust your kicker to make a 41yder, then the team has big issues.
[/quote]

It was meant to be tongue in cheek, but you're right. The offense was finally starting to move the ball, there was nothing wrong with taking the points and counting on the D and getting the ball back and the offense moving the ball again. But I guess you could also argue going for it based on the statement of the offense finally clicking. I had no problem with the decision, just the execution. The missed FG was not only non-productive, but deflating.

[Hooky]

[quote name='NYbengals' timestamp='1349660866' post='1167821']
I wasn't as upset about the FG try as i was about the PAT vs the 2 point conversion. It still doesn't make any sense to me...
[/quote]

Great point. I didn't even think about that.

[SlantNGo]

You are absolutely right with Scenario C. Scenario D I think is irrelevant because if the 2-pt conversion fails and Cincy scores another TD, they go for 2. If they fail, they lead by 1, and if they succeed, they lead by 3. Kicking the PAT and leading by 2 does nothing for them.

At the time, I believed the best bet was to go for 2. I think a more thorough analysis backs this up.

As for the second decision regarding the FG down by 4, I agreed with Marvin's call at the time. With the way the Bengal O was stalling and knowing that Miami has a rookie QB and weren't running the ball well, I thought getting a FG, forcing the Dolphins to punt, and then getting another FG was more likely than getting a TD starting from 4th and 5. After crunching some numbers, I now think that too was a bad decision.

In both cases though, I think these were close calls. If you change the success probabilities a little bit, the best decision can easily change, so I don't fault Marvin for either call. He's had much worse, so if these are his worst decisions all year, he'll have made a huge improvement over his past performance.

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1349706604' post='1167975']
there's also Scenario C.


Scenario C: Go for two, don't make it. Down 17-12. Miami scores a FG and its 20-12 and the Bengals need a TD AND a 2pt conversion.

or Scenario D: Go for two, on't make it. Down 17-12. Bengals score a TD and either go up 19-17 or have to go for 2 again to get a 3pt lead. Miami kicks a game winning FG, wins 20-19.
[/quote]

[NYbengals]

[quote name='Lewdog' timestamp='1349668199' post='1167896']
[b]Because when the Bengals kicked the extra point, it puts the Bengals down only a FG[/b]. A FG is so much easier to get than a TD. Then if the D can hold them for a punt or to a FG, the Bengals still have a chance to drive for a win or a tie. Marvin even made comments to as much.

BTW something is weird today, I have agreed with Bengals1181 and Fred. O lord, if me and Kenneth agree, I think this site might go down for good.
[/quote]

They bengals were down 5 when they decided to kick the extra point and down 4 after they made it, not 3. Did no one else see Andy asking to go for 2 after the TD?

[Bengal27]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1349706604' post='1167975']


there's also Scenario C.


Scenario C: Go for two, don't make it. Down 17-12. Miami scores a FG and its 20-12 and the Bengals need a TD AND a 2pt conversion.

or Scenario D: Go for two, on't make it. Down 17-12. Bengals score a TD and either go up 19-17 or have to go for 2 again to get a 3pt lead. Miami kicks a game winning FG, wins 20-19.
[/quote]

Good scenarios and the exact reason you dont go for two with a whole quarter to play.

I was upset when they went for the field goal but you cant blame Marvin. It was a good decision. We make that field goal, we would have had plenty of time to drive for the winning field goal, even with the bad PI call on Newman. That ball was not only uncatcable but Hartline never looked back.

[NYbengals]

[quote name='SlantNGo' timestamp='1349705490' post='1167970']
I was going to point out the same chart, but actually I think you read it wrong. The correct situation should be -5 since that's the deficit after the touchdown (not including the PAT). At -5 and 15:00, you should attempt the 2-pt conversion if probability is greater than 25%.

The website says in the second paragraph: "The rows are labeled by the lead after scoring a touchdown, but prior to the attempt at an extra point or points." As a sanity check, notice that the probability for -2 and -5 are much lower than the others, indicating that it's advantageous to go for 2 in these cases, so I'm pretty sure you read it as the score after the TD but before the PAT.
[/quote]

Yep. i was gonna point this out too then i saw your post. Glad you wrote it out for me.

There was a likely scenario where we would have lost by one yesterday. If Nuge hit the 41 yarder and we don't get the ball back; nuge misses the second one or we fail to get into FG range. Going for 2 was the correct call then and the correct call now.

[|SF2|]

[quote name='NYbengals' timestamp='1349712732' post='1168003']
Yep. i was gonna point this out too then i saw your post. Glad you wrote it out for me.

There was a likely scenario where we would have lost by one yesterday. If Nuge hit the 41 yarder and we don't get the ball back; nuge misses the second one or we fail to get into FG range. Going for 2 was the correct call then and the correct call now.
[/quote]

Gotta agree with this.

[scharm]

I've never coached in the NFL. It seems to me going for it on 4th had more up side with about the same amount of risk as kicking the FG.

They missed the FG and we got to see the resulting actions and the game wasn't over until the final Int.

However, if they make the FG the senario is almost the same as not converting the 4th or missing the FG except you need to get around 30-35 for a decent winning FG attempt instead of TD.

The upside of converting 4th, keeping the ball and a chance of go ahead TD was worth it. IMO, horrible call.

Now people try to boil this down to 1 or 2 calls. That's fine, some fans have a great desire to do so. I don't care for it. As a whole, this is a typical Marvin blown home game that should have been a win. Leaves you empty and wondering how the fuck did they lose to that team at home?????

Regardless of what you think of Marvin or the calls. This is probably going to become the "playoff senario killer" when we get to December and start flushing out Wild Card senarios. Muck like Denver last year we will be saying "I wish we didn't drop one to the Phins because that screws us in tie breaker yada, yada, yada.

[cincity]

It's so easy to criticize the decision, but no one knows even if we would have made the first down, on the 4th and 5, or if we would have punched it in for a TD after the because yesterday's the redzone offense was bad. And maybe that was one of the decision factors into what he did. Either way, the only way fans would not have criticized him is if the Bengals executed and won. The players didn't.

Hawk missed a sure first down catch but no one is blaming Hawk.

Newman totally looking in the backfield and allowing a long pass over his head. No one is blaming him.

Binns fumbles after a first down catch no one's blaming Binns

Andy 2 INT's including a crucial one (IMO) to stop momentum on the first series of the 2nd half.. No one's blaming Andy

And of course Nuge missing an easy field goal... No one's blaming Nuge.

And PBS wasn't much of a home field advantage. This was THE quietest stadium I've been to. This was my first time going to a game here since the NO Saints season ending game YEARS ago.

There is no one person to blame for the loss.. The team loss, the players didn't play, and the coaches didn't call the calls, WE AS PEOPLE NOT ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN THE GAME, didn't call.

[|kennethmw|]

[quote name='Hooky' timestamp='1349708394' post='1167981']
I had no problem with the call. If Nugent made the FG, they kick off, hope for a defensive stop, then get in FG range again. That gives them a better chance to win than going for it, not making it, hope for a defensive stop and needing a TD drive. IMHO, his only mistake was thinking that Nugent would make it.
[/quote]

Yeah, who would have thought a guy that hadn't missed a FG all year would make a 41 yarder?

[scharm]

[quote name='kennethmw' timestamp='1349726174' post='1168070']


Yeah, who would have thought a guy that hadn't missed a FG all year would make a 41 yarder?
[/quote]

I don't know who would have thought that. I do know it still leaves you a point short.

I would rather have taken my chances on Andy Dalton converting a 4th and then ultimately scoring the TD over Nugent kicking a FG leaving them 1 point short, then the special teams/defense getting the ball back, then Andy Dalton driving again for a winning FG.

It was dumb. End of story.

[cincity]

[quote name='scharm' timestamp='1349726836' post='1168074']
I don't know who would have thought that. I do know it still leaves you a point short.

[b]I would rather have taken my chances on Andy Dalton converting a 4th and then ultimately scoring the TD [/b]over Nugent kicking a FG leaving them 1 point short, then the special teams/defense getting the ball back, then Andy Dalton driving again for a winning FG.

It was dumb. End of story.
[/quote]

They couldn't score yesterday, They were effectively taking Green out of the game Coyle had an amazing game plan for them. And we couldn't run the ball. IDK. You depend on the unit that's doing the best, and that was the defense.

[scharm]

[quote name='cincity' timestamp='1349727210' post='1168076']


They couldn't score yesterday, They were effectively taking Green out of the game Coyle had an amazing game plan for them. And we couldn't run the ball. IDK. You depend on the unit that's doing the best, and that was the defense.
[/quote]

Nah. That's more of a reason to go for it. The defense did get them the ball despite the missed FG. You go for it and then trust your defense to get the ball back if it doesn't work. The FG didn't work and that's almost identical situation if a converision didn't work.

What you stated above doesn't make sense because you are asking the unit that "couldn't score yesterday" to mount an additional scoring drive no matter if the FG goes in or not.

There's no defense for a decision like that. It was horrible. Anybody can justify anything with the speed of the game and 60 some plays during the course of 60 minutes.

When there was a chance to go win a game. They put it on Nugent's foot to narrow the margin to 1 point. WTF? I would have rather taken my chances with Andy Dalton on 4th vs. Nugent making a FG then hoping several things work in their favor so they could get another FG attempt.

[scharm]

I wish this message board was around in 1987. Sure enough some people would have been defending Sam handing the ball back to the 9ers. Ugh.

This was not as horrible but it's pretty damn bad.

[fredtoast]

[quote name='NYbengals' timestamp='1349712732' post='1168003'] Going for 2 was the correct call then and the correct call now.
[/quote]
[quote name='SF2' timestamp='1349713869' post='1168007']
Gotta agree with this.
[/quote]

Then would it have been the correct call in the second quarter also?

That seems to be your logic. If not then when exactly in the game does it become the correct choice?

[fredtoast]

[quote name='scharm' timestamp='1349727716' post='1168077'] I would have rather taken my chances with Andy Dalton on 4th vs. Nugent making a FG then hoping several things work in their favor so they could get another FG attempt.
[/quote]

So a first down is worth more than 5 points?

When did they change that rule?

[cincity]

[quote name='fredtoast' timestamp='1349729292' post='1168082']
So a first down is worth more than 5 points?

When did they change that rule?
[/quote]

THIS^^^^

[Lewdog]

[quote name='kennethmw' timestamp='1349726174' post='1168070']
Yeah, who would have thought a guy that hadn't missed a FG all year would make a 41 yarder?
[/quote]

The world is ending in 12/21/12 for sure.

I think people are subconsciously hating on Nuge here. Nuge had yet to miss a FG this year up that point, and I am sure Lewis had confidence in Nuge making that kick and making another one later to win the game. Since Nuge did miss the kick we will never know, but because he did miss it, we get a forum full of second guessers.

[NYbengals]

[quote name='fredtoast' timestamp='1349729161' post='1168081']
Then would it have been the correct call in the second quarter also?

That seems to be your logic. If not then when exactly in the game does it become the correct choice?
[/quote]

End of the 2nd quarter, no.

I would say i would go for it when you are only garunteed to get the ball back one more time in the game and the extra point means nothing. Now, we did get the ball 2 more times before the end of the game; but at the time, it wasn't a given.

Even the chart that Amish posted said going for 2 was the right call. Are they wrong too?

[Lewdog]

[quote name='NYbengals' timestamp='1349743477' post='1168135']
End of the 2nd quarter, no.

I would say i would go for it when you are only garunteed to get the ball back one more time in the game and the extra point means nothing. Now, we did get the ball 2 more times before the end of the game; but at the time, it wasn't a given.

Even the chart that Amish posted said going for 2 was the right call. Are they wrong too?
[/quote]

So you don't believe on letting decisions be based on more than stats, but feelings? The offense wasn't playing well, the defense was playing better, so why take a risk when they could continue chipping away at the lead. Don't forget also how failing on a two point conversion could play on the psyche of an already poor playing offense.

[NYbengals]

My gut AND the stats say Marvin should have went for it...

IDK what else you want. What about the effect of converting the 2 point conversion on the Bengals O and putting pressure on the Phins D. Maybe getting the 2 would have sparked our Offense?

[Lewdog]

[quote name='NYbengals' timestamp='1349744350' post='1168144']
My gut AND the stats say Marvin should have went for it...

IDK what else you want. What about the effect of converting the 2 point conversion on the Bengals O and putting pressure on the Phins D. Maybe getting the 2 would have sparked our Offense?
[/quote]

Because, even if the Bengals got the 2-point conversion, the Phins would still be winning the game. There was just too much time left in the game to risk it. I just can't understand why people aren't seeing this. If it was sooo easy to get a 2-point conversion, then why don't teams just go for it every time? People act like getting the two is as easy as getting a PAT. The Bengals had to kick the extra point, play to take the lead, and hope to force the Phins into difficult decisions.

[bengalbutch]

[quote name='Lewdog' timestamp='1349735903' post='1168098']
The world is ending in 12/21/12 for sure.

I think people are subconsciously hating on Nuge here. Nuge had yet to miss a FG this year up that point, and I am sure Lewis had confidence in Nuge making that kick and making another one later to win the game. Since Nuge did miss the kick we will never know, but because he did miss it, [b]we get a forum full of second guessers[/b].
[/quote]
Not second guessing. Why do folks keep saying that ? I was about to blow a gasket when he sent Nuge out there. Even if we go for it and don't get it, it's the right call.
Finally the offense gets a decent drive and we try the field goal instead of going for the win. It the offense is having a bad day. What makes you think they put 2 drives together to get in FG range. The right call is to go for the first down and TD & win the game.
Of course from Marvin quotes today he will never change and same thing will happen next time. So no sense discussing it further

[Lewdog]

[quote name='bengalbutch' timestamp='1349745214' post='1168152']
Not second guessing. Why do folks keep saying that ? I was about to blow a gasket when he sent Nuge out there. Even if we go for it and don't get it, it's the right call.
Finally the offense gets a decent drive and we try the field goal instead of going for the win. It the offense is having a bad day. What makes you think they put 2 drives together to get in FG range. The right call is to go for the first down and TD & win the game.
Of course from Marvin quotes today he will never change and same thing will happen next time. So no sense discussing it further
[/quote]

Maybe because it is more likely to get to the 25 yard line and let your kicker that hadn't missed all season put 3 on the board, than count on your offense that has not been playing well all day to drive 80 yards for a TD with time running out.