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With the 164th Pick in the 2014 NFL Draft the Bengals Select AJ McCarron, QB Alabama!!


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Brees left San Diego and promptly won MVP awards and a championship.
 
His replacement, Phillip Rivers, is mostly known as a hillbilly who wears bolo ties.
 
Advantage Dalton.

Even though I am not an Andy fan, his comparison did make me scratch my head LOL.
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exactly, because he got a better offensive coordinator...


True. But after 3 years in the NFL do you really believe Andy can get better?

It really just makes San Diego look bad. Rivers isn't bad but I'd rather have Drew.


I can't disagree with this but no one could have predicted that.
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So since we have two AJs on offense, how does this work? 

 

I was the new "Steve" in the office once; it can get awkward.

 

A.J. Jefferson just signed with the Seahawks, so I guess he's off the table, but is there any chance the Packers would part with A.J. Hawk?  You can never have too many A.J.s.  It could be like ten years ago, when there were 37 Johnsons on the roster.

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True. But after 3 years in the NFL do you really believe Andy can get better?


I can't disagree with this but no one could have predicted that.

 

 

yea why not?  Alex Smith is coming off the three best years (years 6-8) of his career, and I think Dalton is much better than him (Smith years 1-3 that is).  

 

 

Dalton is at the very start of his prime.  It's silly to think he won't continue to improve.

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True. But after 3 years in the NFL do you really believe Andy can get better?


I can't disagree with this but no one could have predicted that.

 

Brees did.  So did Smith.  And many others.  Why that's unbelievable isn't understandable.

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If Andy doesn't get extended, I hope they have a better back up plan than a 5th round guy.

 

Andy aside, the 2 best players on defense are a no round guy (Burfict) and a 4th round guy (Atkins).

 

So I'm not sure that's the best barometer for potential talent.

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Andy aside, the 2 best players on defense are a no round guy (Burfict) and a 4th round guy (Atkins).

 

So I'm not sure that's the best barometer for potential talent.

 

 

Yes it is actually....there are tons of position players from later rounds that turn out great..

QB's.. not so much...

 

I'm not saying that AJ has absolutely no chance of being the Bengals QB in the future.. but the track record is what it is...

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Tom Brady, round 6

...is basically the only QB in forever who was drafted that late and made a difference, and yet, will continue to be used by dreamers everywhere who would rather pine for a developmental alternative rather than accept the odds that 1 out of 200 guys drafted after the 4th round pans out.

 

Like many, I play the lottery (when it goes over $300MM, which is funny), despite the fact that it's statistically a total waste of money.  I play because it's fun to dream about such an easy windfall.

 

So I'm hoping we have the next Tom Brady as much as anyone...Which is why I'm rooting for Andy Dalton to keep improving.

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track record.  Not needle in a haystack.

 

 

 

I'm rooting for McCarron, but for every Tom Brady, there's 150 failures.

Johnny Unitas was taken in the 9th round.  See, this stuff happens all the time.

 

Jeff Blake round 6 biatches.   Trent Green and Brad Johnson in the 8th round.  Franchise.

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Yeah and Jamarcus Russel, David Carr, Akili Smith, etc. were taken in the FIRST round.  What's your point?

In Carr's defenese, he went to a horrible expansion team and suffers PTSD.    Klinger and Leaf are better examples.

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Yeah and Jamarcus Russel, David Carr, Akili Smith, etc. were taken in the FIRST round.  What's your point?

 

Are you trying to make the argument that 1st round QB failures are just as likely as late round QB failures? I'm pretty sure we could get numbers on that to verify or disprove that theory.

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Yeah and Jamarcus Russel, David Carr, Akili Smith, etc. were taken in the FIRST round.  What's your point?

 

The point that is being made, which would require some knowledge of statistics, or logic, or basic common sense to understand is that 1st round Quarterbacks are SIGNIFICANTLY more likely to pan out than 5th round guys.

 

If you want to talk about actually GREAT QBs, the odds are something around 1 out of 7 QBs taken in the first round end up being great, and somewhere around 1 out of 20 in the first three.  That sounds like a long shot, but they are amazing odds when you compare it to the 1 out of 200 that you get from later rounders.

 

But first round or later round, both of those realities are the reason that you, along with everyone else, should be cheering like Hell for AD to continue his progress.  Because our odds of doing better with someone else are a serious long shot.


 

Thanks for posting.  I was going to call on you to repost bc I remembered it, but there you are!

 

EDIT: and this graph was based on QB's that the writer deemed "successful," many of whom hardly qualify as "great."

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