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Dalton's Deal Predictions


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Overall there is a huge delusional thought about Andy Dalton here that no other fan base or fans of the NFL share. It probably has a lot to do with him being "our guy". If you step outside of this board Browns-Steelers and Ravens fans are hoping we sign Dalton long term.


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He shouldn't get more than Brady or Ben.  I don't even see how that argument can be made.  My guess, $10M.  Bradford is still on his rookie contract I believe and won't be resigned close to what he's making now.

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Serious question.

 

Aside from the obvious damage you'll do to the relationship by going this route, I'd wonder why the team wouldn't simply look at the next two years as a package deal right now and tell Andy we're going to pay you according to your contract this year, and then we're going to tag you next year.  That will end up being abou 22M, or 11M per year.  That's a pretty good deal.

 

Someone who plays with the numbers and understands better than I can explain how we might play a shell game with the money (heavily loading deals for Burfict and AJ this year, for example, so that there's less demand on next...).

 

But it seems to me that, right now, you're holding two years over his head at 11 million/year --> which should give you some leverage at the bargaining table today, at the very least.

 

As I said, it'll piss him off and almost guarantee that he'll be gone in 3 years, but are there other reasons it's a bad idea?

I'm pretty sure that is the Bengals negotiating tactic for every player and every deal. They aren't too worried about pissing anyone off. It's always, "here is how long we control you and for how much and let's start from there". Otherwise they wouldn't be getting everyone to sign such team friendly deals.  

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I say $12.5 million per. Now let's just hope they they take the ball out of his hands when the game is on the line, and run it.

 

 

I know people don't like Lance, but he was asking why pay the QB more when we're going to ask him to do less this year?

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He shouldn't get more than Brady or Ben.  I don't even see how that argument can be made.  My guess, $10M.  Bradford is still on his rookie contract I believe and won't be resigned close to what he's making now.

 

My guess is that you're not a good guesser.  10 mill is laughable.  5yr/ 85 mill extension, which makes it about a 6 yr/ 86.5 mill deal.  10 mill roster bonus this year, 45 mill guaranteed, probably 30 mill fully guaranteed.

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He shouldn't get more than Brady or Ben.  I don't even see how that argument can be made.  My guess, $10M.  Bradford is still on his rookie contract I believe and won't be resigned close to what he's making now.

 

You haven't been paying attention.  The likes of Ryan Fitpatrick and Kevin Kolb got better deals than that three years ago.  It just isn't going to happen.

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You haven't been paying attention.  The likes of Ryan Fitpatrick and Kevin Kolb got better deals than that three years ago.  It just isn't going to happen.

Not to mention Brady has restructured his deal a couple of times so his number is a bit misleading. I think Ben has too.

Edit to stay on topic: I think Dalton's deal will average 17 million/year.
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That and Gio's fumble.  That was when you could hear the deflation.

I thought so too...at the time. The reality is we immediately forced a 3 and out and had a decent length drive to kick a field goal to end the half. Not nearly the boost that late TD would have been, but that team wasn't deflated based on their play immediately after the fumble.  

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I know people don't like Lance, but he was asking why pay the QB more when we're going to ask him to do less this year?

I think the fault in Lance's argument is that he'll be asked to do 'less,' and that he should be paid less. He's asked to run the offense, read defenses, execute the game plan, and put the ball in the right guy's hands 60-70 snaps a game.

I don't have an opinion on what kind of deal he should get. I have no idea. I just don't think any QB's contract is tied to the number of passes he throws per season.
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I'm in the "make him earn it" camp but if the team believes they are unlikely to find an upgrade and want to secure Dalton for the long term, there are a couple of things that come into play.

 

 Players typically take a bit of a discount if they are paid early, ie with a year remaining on their current deals. That's especially true if the player hasn't had a big payday already, ie Dalton or Burfict more than AJ. 

 

Another consideration is that the team can get a player to take a lower average or lower max contract value by raising the floor, ie more guaranteed money. Dalton has stayed healthy and made 48 starts in 3 years so unlike some other QBs the team may be more confident giving him a bigger guaranteed share in return for reducing the max value. If Dalton stays healthy and continues to improve that would be a good deal for the team.

 

Dalton's agent is probably asking for something like Stafford or Cutler got. But if he turns down a deal paying 15 or 16 mil per year, the Bengals might let Andy leave, or at least reserve the tag for him in 2015. If Dalton does reach the open market it might be that his value is greater to the Bengals than other teams. If the Bengals decline to tag him in 2015, that sends a signal to the rest of the league and reduces Andy's market value.

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he doesnt deserve to even be on that list.

 

he is a product of his supporting cast and defense saving his ass...

 

Go, you're Laughable.  We can always count on you to say something that makes no sense when it comes to Andy.

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I thought so too...at the time. The reality is we immediately forced a 3 and out and had a decent length drive to kick a field goal to end the half. Not nearly the boost that late TD would have been, but that team wasn't deflated based on their play immediately after the fumble.  


You have to take the whole sequence of events of how the half ended and how the second half started.

Fumble causes you to only be up 3 at half instead of 7.
Then after moving the ball to the 50 on the first drive of the second half, the oline starts their collapse and due to that we are forced to punt.
Then the punt from the 50 goes into the endZone instead of pinning them deep (too bad huber was hurt".

THEN the D gives up an easy 80 yard td drive.

Now all the sudden we are losing in a game and the fans and team became a little deflated, before Andy's turnovers.



Don't get me wrong, the game was still winnable at that point and Dalton's turnovers pretty much eliminated any chance of winning. But it was that series of events that changed the momentum. PRIOR to Dalton's turnovers.
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You have to take the whole sequence of events of how the half ended and how the second half started.

Fumble causes you to only be up 3 at half instead of 7.
Then after moving the ball to the 50 on the first drive of the second half, the oline starts their collapse and due to that we are forced to punt.
Then the punt from the 50 goes into the endZone instead of pinning them deep (too bad huber was hurt".

THEN the D gives up an easy 80 yard td drive.

Now all the sudden we are losing in a game and the fans and team became a little deflated, before Andy's turnovers.



Don't get me wrong, the game was still winnable at that point and Dalton's turnovers pretty much eliminated any chance of winning. But it was that series of events that changed the momentum. PRIOR to Dalton's turnovers.

 

good to see dalton is the only one allowed to make mistakes, everyone eless crush the team, and daltons get a pass... 3 year veteran QB who is supposed to be the leader of the team wets the fucking bed in every fucking bid game. but its everyone elses fault first?

 

awesome..

 

at least you arent making excuses. 

 

if you could break down every division game and explain how someone elses caused those collapses too, and forced his 24TD / 23INT / 3 FUMBLES. id love to see.

 

maybe the prime time performances as well: 1TD / 3INT / 2 FUMBLES

 

or all of the other playoff games: 1TD / 6INT / 1FUMBLE

 

definitely give him 15 million!!!!!!!1111  after all he had 5 td's against the jets..

 

move over tom brady, have a seat peyton manning... andy dalton is here to fuck up every time it counts..

 

i cant imagine how many excuses you all have to explain away those stats...

 

its time to move on...  where is the accepting mediocrity crowd when you need them? top defense in the league, most talented weapons this franchise has ever seen, and the most mediocre QB i can remember...  but people are sitting here making excuses...

 

at some point our defense is not going to be as dominant, AJ is going to leave as soon as he can, and sanu and jones arent exactly locked up for very long, 

 

we clearly arent getting where we should be getting with dalton, and the numbers stand for themselves.... beating up the crappy apponents, and getting bitch slapped every single time it counts...

 

why would you pay for that

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Personally I wouldnt give him any more than 12 max as a base and then put in numerous escalators based on playoff wins that got him to the top 5. I suspect he'll get more than 12 though, I just hope they dont do it in a way that hamstrings the team when he shits the bed again. 

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It's almost like the stats aren't as good when you pick the games against good defenses.


Ha no kidding. That's why they are good defenses because quarterbacks don't do as well against them as they do against other teams. If good defenses allowed quarterbacks to play great against them, they wouldn't be a good defense!

San Diego's defense wasn't good though so that's not an excuse for Dalton's poor second half against them.
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Personally I wouldnt give him any more than 12 max as a base and then put in numerous escalators based on playoff wins that got him to the top 5. I suspect he'll get more than 12 though, I just hope they dont do it in a way that hamstrings the team when he shits the bed again. 


Pretty much agree. I want something in the 12 range with escalators but think it will end up being closer to the 6 years 94 mil number I mentioned above which averages closer to 15 or 16.

I wouldn't hate that though as long as they have some outs two or three years down the road
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Ha no kidding. That's why they are good defenses because quarterbacks don't do as well against them as they do against other teams. If good defenses allowed quarterbacks to play great against them, they wouldn't be a good defense!

San Diego's defense wasn't good though so that's not an excuse for Dalton's poor second half against them.

 

They actually started to do a good job rushing deep on the side to cut off the side screens we like to do and getting into the pass lanes.  After that worked they started crashing the middle too and our pocket tended to collapse fairly fast.  They had a good game plan for a team that decided to abandon the run.

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good to see dalton is the only one allowed to make mistakes, everyone eless crush the team, and daltons get a pass... 3 year veteran QB who is supposed to be the leader of the team wets the fucking bed in every fucking bid game. but its everyone elses fault first?
 
awesome..
 
at least you arent making excuses. 
 
if you could break down every division game and explain how someone elses caused those collapses too, and forced his 24TD / 23INT / 3 FUMBLES. id love to see.
 
maybe the prime time performances as well: 1TD / 3INT / 2 FUMBLES
 
or all of the other playoff games: 1TD / 6INT / 1FUMBLE
 
definitely give him 15 million!!!!!!!1111  after all he had 5 td's against the jets..
 
move over tom brady, have a seat peyton manning... andy dalton is here to fuck up every time it counts..
 
i cant imagine how many excuses you all have to explain away those stats...
 
its time to move on...  where is the accepting mediocrity crowd when you need them? top defense in the league, most talented weapons this franchise has ever seen, and the most mediocre QB i can remember...  but people are sitting here making excuses...
 
at some point our defense is not going to be as dominant, AJ is going to leave as soon as he can, and sanu and jones arent exactly locked up for very long, 
 
we clearly arent getting where we should be getting with dalton, and the numbers stand for themselves.... beating up the crappy apponents, and getting bitch slapped every single time it counts...
 
why would you pay for that


But he tries so hard. And no one expected him to be this good even.
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