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Burrow, Allen or Herbert? Mike Sando Article from Poll of Coaches/GM/Scouts - Athletic article


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Of interest perhaps - here it is...

 

https://theathletic.com/3088403/2022/01/27/joe-burrow-josh-allen-or-justin-herbert-which-rising-young-qb-would-nfl-coaches-and-execs-take-now/

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Joe Burrow, Josh Allen or Justin Herbert? Which rising young QB would NFL coaches and execs take now?

 

Three young quarterbacks soared toward superstar status as the 2021 NFL regular season concluded. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen continued their ascent with memorable playoff performances. The third, Justin Herbert, ranked behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in Total QBR during a second consecutive impressive season to start his career.

 

Burrow, Allen and Herbert are three of the most exciting young players in the game. Each has shown enough to enhance his profile since entering the league, but none has played well enough for long enough to cement himself with Rodgers, Brady and Patrick Mahomes as the elite of the elite. Allen has grown into the role, emerging as a consistently dynamic force over the past two seasons. Burrow and Herbert have played only two seasons — Burrow less than that, thanks to a knee injury suffered as a rookie.

 

Which one of these three rising quarterbacks would you take if allowed to choose just one? I posed that question to two NFL offensive coaches, a former general manager, one long-time evaluator, one younger evaluator, former NFL executive of the year Randy Mueller and The Athletic NFL Draft analyst Dane Brugler. The seven voters ranked the quarterbacks 1-2-3. The results are below, along with explanations. There was almost a tie at the top.

 

Burrow (1), Allen (2) , Herbert (3)? Ballots, please
Former GM
1
2
3

 

Evaluator 1
1
2
3

 

Coach 1
1
3
2

 

Coach 2
1
3
2

 

Evaluator 2
2
1
3

 

Brugler
2
1
3

 

Mueller
3
1
2

 

Avg Vote
1.6 - Burrow

1.9 - Allen
2.6 - Herbert

 

1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals


Average vote: 1.6

 

Burrow was the surest bet of the three coming out of college. Any team would have selected him first. Allen and Herbert required more projection, for different reasons, which is why they were not No. 1 overall choices.

 

“You can make a case for all three, easily,” one of the offensive coaches said. “My gut is it’s Burrow because he’s the best decision maker and he’s the toughest mentally, the most resilient, the best leader.”

 

The Bengals went from zero playoff victories for 31 years to the AFC Championship Game in Burrow’s first full season as a starter.

 

“I would take any one of the three, obviously — they are all impressive,” the other offensive coach said. “I just think Burrow has that little extra something. Maybe it’s because he has (Ja’Marr) Chase, but he was that was at LSU. He’s so accurate. He sees things so well.”

 

Burrow was first on both coaches’ ballots. He was first or second on six ballots overall. Mueller’s ballot was the exception. He had Allen first, Herbert second.

 

“Coaches want the processor and the most coachable of them all,” Mueller said. “Burrow is the highest level of instincts. To me, that’s why all these offensive coaches were in love with Mac Jones. I just want the best guy, the most talent that we can manage going forward.”

 

Burrow edged Allen for the top spot because the two offensive coaches dropped Allen to third on their ballots, the only No. 3 votes Allen received. If those coaches had ranked Allen second and Herbert third, then Burrow and Allen would have tied at the top.

 

“What Burrow is doing with that offensive line is impressive,” said the long-time evaluator, who had Burrow atop his ballot. “His eyes are so quick. He sees it like Brady, Peyton, Brees at their primes. It is almost like Joe Montana, seeing it that quick and delivering it accurately.”

 

What about all the sacks, including nine against Tennessee in the divisional round? Mueller thought Burrow would always take sacks at a higher rate for a variety of reasons, including the Bengals’ roster construction.

 

“You can get on him if you like for getting sacked nine times,” the former GM said, “but he is kind of like the general who said, ‘You know what, we are going to have to take some casualties here, men — I’m going to take some sacks, but I’m not going to turn it over and I’m going to get you 20 points on the board and they are going to beat the heck out of me.’ ”

 

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

 

Average vote: 1.9

 

Mueller, Brugler and the younger evaluator all had Allen atop their ballots.

 

“I think he’s John Elway,” Mueller said. “He does not have the body of work Elway has, but the skill set is so similar that it’s crazy.”

 

Allen is ahead of Elway in at least one respect. He has 31 rushing touchdowns in 61 career games. Elway had 33 rushing touchdowns in 234 games.

 

“To be to be a top-tier guy in today’s NFL, you need a superhero trait, and I think Josh Allen has a few of them with the way he can impact the game in so many different ways,” Brugler said. “It doesn’t come without concerns. He takes so many hits. He is more expensive than the other two guys. But if I’m just talking about the player and the guy that I feel most confident is going to lead my team to a chance at a Super Bowl championship, I’m going with Josh Allen.”

 

One of the evaluators loved the way the Bills developed Allen: addressing his accuracy issues early while using his running ability as a complement rather than turning Allen into primarily a runner early in his career. “They did not say, ‘We have to be run-first to fix your arm second,’ ” this evaluator said. “They have done the reverse. They deconstructed his motion and improved that, so they can lean into the running when they have to, but he has done enough from a pocket standpoint that he can stand there.”

 

Mueller said he thought accuracy concerns regarding Allen were always overblown.

 

“Without being anchored to this position, I’ve never been a believer that this guy had inaccuracy problems that couldn’t be fixed,” Mueller said. “I could explain those things when he came out, so I’ve always been a little bit aligned behind that theory of, he just needs training, comfort level, processing and learning, and he’ll be fine.”

 

Some expressed concern about what might happen in Buffalo if offensive coordinator Brian Daboll leaves and the system changes.

“You’re going to have more ups and downs with Allen once his contract affects the talent around him,” one of the offensive coaches said.

 

3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

 

Average vote: 2.6

 

Recency bias could favor Burrow and Allen following their strong performances in the playoffs. Not for Mueller, however. He had Herbert second, ahead of Burrow.

 

“The hard one for me is Herbert vs. Burrow,” Mueller said. “I think Herbert’s offense holds him back. If you put Herbert in Buffalo, he is not wired the same as Josh Allen, but he could do a lot of similar things. Those are the athletes and that is where I yielded at the end of the day.”

 

Both offensive coaches had Herbert over Allen, but behind Burrow. One noted that Herbert succeeded the minute he walked into the league, on a team that had question marks on the offensive line and a defense that fell off.

 

“I think you look at what Burrow does above the neck, I’d probably just go Burrow second and Herbert third, even though Herbert may be the best thrower of them all,” an evaluator who ranked Allen first said.

 

As retirement approached for Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and others, it wasn’t always certain if the league would develop quarterbacks talented enough to replace them. Burrow, Allen and Herbert are easing those concerns.

 

“What I love about all three is just how they’ve overcome so much,” Brugler said. “Josh Allen did not grow up going to quarterback camps where playing the position a specific way is ingrained at a young age. He learned organically and had just a very different upbringing and journey. He’s still learning, growing and evolving and becoming better. Joe Burrow went to Ohio State, so he was a big recruit, but he had to go somewhere else and do it. Justin Herbert, small hometown guy in Eugene, a quiet guy by nature, coming out of his shell.

 

“There’s not a wrong answer here. You can really make the case for any of these guys.”

 

 

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  • membengal changed the title to Burrow, Allen or Herbert? Mike Sando Article from Poll of Coaches/GM/Scouts - Athletic article

I still marvel at how that season started with "tanking for Tua".

Where, even though we sucked, I never thought we would suck enough for the number 1 pick.

As that season progressed and Joe began to emerge, I became intrigued by him - then totally captivated.

You could see then that this kid was genuine, something I don't know if I'd ever seen in a college qb before.

Then as we descended deeper into suckville, it started to become a possibility that we could steal this guy for our own.

The end result with not only us drafting Joe, but, Tua not living up to the hype - again - continues to totally amaze me how it all played out.

 

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19 hours ago, claptonrocks said:

Top 5 young guns in the NFL

 

Mahomes

Burrow

Herbert

Allen

Murray..

 

These are the studs now and in the future..

Ill take JB..

 

 

Many would put Lamar in there but he has similar issues to Murray - needs to step up in playoffs as as passer. 

 

Herbert needs the opportunity in the playoffs to see whether he shines or wilts. Mahomes, Allen and Burrow have gotten there already. 

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1 hour ago, HOF dan said:

I still marvel at how that season started with "tanking for Tua".

Where, even though we sucked, I never thought we would suck enough for the number 1 pick.

As that season progressed and Joe began to emerge, I became intrigued by him - then totally captivated.

You could see then that this kid was genuine, something I don't know if I'd ever seen in a college qb before.

Then as we descended deeper into suckville, it started to become a possibility that we could steal this guy for our own.

The end result with not only us drafting Joe, but, Tua not living up to the hype - again - continues to totally amaze me how it all played out.

 

 

Like most of us as that season got to about the mid point I was hoping we'd tank enough to get a QB.  Tua seemed good enough but I never buy in too hard to Alabama QB's.  Burrow started coming into the conversation as LSU continued to dominate, and when I finally watched some games of theirs (I watch very little college football) I was suddenly hoping beyond all hope that we tank like hell and get that #1 pick.  

 

Welp, that game vs the Dolphins was perhaps the most anxiety I've ever felt as a Bengal fan (it might be second to the playoff loss to the Stealers in 2015/2016).  I was at my parents' place and they're in the country so their TV is via satellite.  Well the weather caused it to go out and I had to start following on my phone, and when every single impossible play kept happening to keep the Bengals in the game... then to OT... I seriously must have been close to a heart attack, that's how bad I wanted Burrow, and how I'd already accepted mentally and emotionally that we'd secured the #1 before the comeback started - similar to how I'd allowed myself to believe we'd beaten the Stealers in 2016.

 

Think of all the impossible moments:

- 29 seconds left, down 16, TD + 2 point conversion

- Recover onside kick, TD + 2 point conversion

- Loooong overtime, Dolphins win AT THE GUN... a tie would have been shitty and risked the #1 too!

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5 minutes ago, HavePityPlease said:

 

Like most of us as that season got to about the mid point I was hoping we'd tank enough to get a QB.  Tua seemed good enough but I never buy in too hard to Alabama QB's.  Burrow started coming into the conversation as LSU continued to dominate, and when I finally watched some games of theirs (I watch very little college football) I was suddenly hoping beyond all hope that we tank like hell and get that #1 pick.  

 

Welp, that game vs the Dolphins was perhaps the most anxiety I've ever felt as a Bengal fan (it might be second to the playoff loss to the Stealers in 2015/2016).  I was at my parents' place and they're in the country so their TV is via satellite.  Well the weather caused it to go out and I had to start following on my phone, and when every single impossible play kept happening to keep the Bengals in the game... then to OT... I seriously must have been close to a heart attack, that's how bad I wanted Burrow, and how I'd already accepted mentally and emotionally that we'd secured the #1 before the comeback started - similar to how I'd allowed myself to believe we'd beaten the Stealers in 2016.

 

Think of all the impossible moments:

- 29 seconds left, down 16, TD + 2 point conversion

- Recover onside kick, TD + 2 point conversion

- Loooong overtime, Dolphins win AT THE GUN... a tie would have been shitty and risked the #1 too!

It was unspeakably horrifying to watch unfold in real time. 

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Burrow is better at everything QB related except arm strength and scrambling on that list.

 

1. Murray has so many faults. is too small to be a pocket passer when needed. His biggest asset is the threat of scampering for yards with his feet, thus requiring a spy and improving passing odds. At the end of the day he is a QB like Jackson and Tua and even back to Tebow  where they had all of their success in college and lots on the NFL level but being great when a play breaks. but your best asset being when a play is broken is a horseshit skillset, youre going to need a GREAT defense to counter the offense needing to chuck the ball. if you know no deep pass or run is going to be open, i cant imagine him having much success having to sit in the pocket and nail short and mid range pass after pass on standard routes. and the amount of times he is throwing a tantrum and acting like a bitch on the sideline is wild.  IMO

 

2. Mahomes. He is a freaky athlete, but he also is surrounded by 2+ freak athletes hill is so so fast and kelce is wild tallented, but again, the wild card and big plays often come from a scramble drill, which they practice, and hill darting around, and mahomes knowing where he is going to dart to. Even the comeback against the bills were two wide open pass completions short that talent made big plays on quickly saving time. mahomes threw 2 short ass wide open passes. he didnt pick apart a defense or anything. Admittidly he didnt HAVE to, but also ,he didnt. all the young fans and tiktok fans as i call them get the highlights and act like all the busted big plays were called plays and the offense is diabolical, and yea they are making huge plays, but a chunk of their success is based on things breaking down and defenses inability to cover forever. IMO

 

3. Herbert. I expect him to have a Phillip rivers type career, this guy is just chucking the football. He has large WR's to chuck it to also. But again he ALSO relies on the big throw chunks to get things done. He seems confused regularly be defenses and throws the ball away or chucks a 50/50 ball which with the size of the WR's works well, ask jesse bates. He, with a killer defense, could win a lot too, but he is going to make enough mistakes to let teams get back in it. IMO

 

4. Burrow, doesnt have the arm of the others, but it feels like he is lightyears ahead in wisdom, reading defenses, knowing and understanding schemes and adjusting quickly, there are a lot of firsts in what he is reading and reacting to on the field that i have never heard or seen before. i am very excited to see how this plays out. I love the possibilities and that we can add spart players and not reaching for over the top talent forever to compliment, and jamar seems to be both, which has been wild to see.

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10 hours ago, GoBengals said:

Burrow is better at everything QB related except arm strength and scrambling on that list.

 

1. Murray has so many faults. is too small to be a pocket passer when needed. His biggest asset is the threat of scampering for yards with his feet, thus requiring a spy and improving passing odds. At the end of the day he is a QB like Jackson and Tua and even back to Tebow  where they had all of their success in college and lots on the NFL level but being great when a play breaks. but your best asset being when a play is broken is a horseshit skillset, youre going to need a GREAT defense to counter the offense needing to chuck the ball. if you know no deep pass or run is going to be open, i cant imagine him having much success having to sit in the pocket and nail short and mid range pass after pass on standard routes. and the amount of times he is throwing a tantrum and acting like a bitch on the sideline is wild.  IMO

 

2. Mahomes. He is a freaky athlete, but he also is surrounded by 2+ freak athletes hill is so so fast and kelce is wild tallented, but again, the wild card and big plays often come from a scramble drill, which they practice, and hill darting around, and mahomes knowing where he is going to dart to. Even the comeback against the bills were two wide open pass completions short that talent made big plays on quickly saving time. mahomes threw 2 short ass wide open passes. he didnt pick apart a defense or anything. Admittidly he didnt HAVE to, but also ,he didnt. all the young fans and tiktok fans as i call them get the highlights and act like all the busted big plays were called plays and the offense is diabolical, and yea they are making huge plays, but a chunk of their success is based on things breaking down and defenses inability to cover forever. IMO

 

3. Herbert. I expect him to have a Phillip rivers type career, this guy is just chucking the football. He has large WR's to chuck it to also. But again he ALSO relies on the big throw chunks to get things done. He seems confused regularly be defenses and throws the ball away or chucks a 50/50 ball which with the size of the WR's works well, ask jesse bates. He, with a killer defense, could win a lot too, but he is going to make enough mistakes to let teams get back in it. IMO

 

4. Burrow, doesnt have the arm of the others, but it feels like he is lightyears ahead in wisdom, reading defenses, knowing and understanding schemes and adjusting quickly, there are a lot of firsts in what he is reading and reacting to on the field that i have never heard or seen before. i am very excited to see how this plays out. I love the possibilities and that we can add spart players and not reaching for over the top talent forever to compliment, and jamar seems to be both, which has been wild to see.

Very good assessment. I would add a couple things. Burrow is the toughest dude, mentally and physically, at the position. He never bitched last year about the o line, and he was playing well before his knee got jacked up.  He comes back from ACL surgery, and takes us to the AFC championship. Unbelievable. He can create on broken plays as well. The Boyd touchdown (that whistle affected NOTHING) and the first touchdown to Chase against the Niners are as good as anything you'll see on broken plays. Some of those sacks last week were ridiculous. Guys double teaming interior linemen and allowing edge rushers to get to Burrow untouched. I'm predicting the o line gets their act together after watching game film and plays half way decent. Half way decent is all Joe needs. GO BENGALS!!!

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