What are the chances the Bengals make the playoffs?

[Arkansas Bengal]

We discuss whether or not the Cincinnati Bengals will make the AFC playoffs.

By Grace McDermott  Dec 12, 2023, 7:11am PST  

 

 

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

The Cincinnati Bengals started the year off on a slower note, which has become a trend for this franchise in the last few years. Joe Burrow was recovering from a preseason injury, and the Bengals opened at 1-3.

 

Things turned around quickly, though, as they notched wins over the 49ers on the road and the Bills and Seahawks at home. They haven’t fared particularly well in divisional play this season. It looked like the year was all but over when Joe Burrow sustained a season-ending injury, but backup Jake Browning has been holding things together and is now 2-1 as a starter with a Wild Card bid in his sights.

 

We break down the Bengals’ chances to make the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals current odds

DraftKings odds: To make playoffs — Yes +300, No -400; AFC North +15000
DVOA playoff odds: TBD
ESPN FPI: 24.3%
NY Times odds: 25%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 15: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 16: @ Pittsburgh Stealers
Week 17: @ Kansas City Chiefs
Week 18: vs. Cleveland Browns

 

The Bengals are on a roll after winning two games in a row, and they meet the Vikings and Stealers at the right time. Both of these games are winnable, even in the absence of Joe Burrow, as both are currently starting backups (the Vikings even moved to their third string last week). Cincinnati wins at home over the Vikings and ekes out a close on in Pittsburgh.

 

However, things will probably take a turn from there. Beating the Chiefs will be a challenge without Burrow, especially on the road, and the Chiefs win in Week 17. The Browns will also likely have their quarterback issues somewhat more sorted by the time Week 18 rolls around, and their defense should do the rest for them. The Bengals go 2-2 in the final stretch.

 

Final record prediction: 9-8

 

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Baltimore Ravens 10-3
2. Miami Dolphins 9-4
3. Kansas City Chiefs 8-5
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 8-5
5. Cleveland Browns 8-5
6. Pittsburgh Stealers 7-6
7. Indianapolis Colts 7-6
8. Houston Texans 7-6
9. Denver Broncos 7-6
10. Cincinnati Bengals 7-6
11. Buffalo Bills 7-6

 

Using ESPN’s playoff predictor, if the Bengals beat the Vikings and the Stealers lose to the Colts in Week 15, the Bengals are projected to get a No. 6 seed. However, if the Stealers win, the Bengals are projected to get a No. 7 seed in the AFC. If either Denver or Houston wins, the Bengals are not projected to earn a Wild Card bid. The six-game 7-6 tiebreaker will likely begin to work itself out in the coming weeks.

Verdict

Yes +300

It will be close, but I think the Bengals sneak in at No. 7 in the AFC. They have a head-to-head win over a fairly mediocre Colts team and a solid Bills team, and many of their competitors are dealing with quarterback issues and other injuries. If Jake Browning can keep his cool and continue to get through these games, Cincinnati will get into the playoffs by a hair.

 

 

https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/nfl/2023/12/12/23997134/cincinnati-bengals-playoff-chances-2023-scenarios-odds-afc-wild-card-seeds-Stealers-browns-ravens

 

[|BlackJesus|]

I think 3-1 is required to get in, 2-2 won't cut it.

 

Definitely doable still, with the Chiefs having the only difficult QB opponent left. 

[Jamie_B]

The NYT playoff machine lets you get percentages by choosing who you think wins week to week 

 

Here - How the Cincinnati Bengals Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 14 - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[Jamie_B]

16 minutes ago, BlackJesus said:

I think 3-1 is required to get in, 2-2 won't cut it.

 

Definitely doable still, with the Chiefs having the only difficult QB opponent left. 

 

 

Not just 3-1 but we have to win the two division games. Your percentages go down if you don't.

 

For instance (Using that NYT playoff machine) 

 

3-1 only losing to the Vikings - 84%

3-1 only losing to the Chiefs - 80%

3-1 only losing to the Steelers - 76%

3-1 only losing to the Browns - 74%

[Le Tigre]

The thing I have seen in both playoff machines, is the reduced emphasis on “if so and so wins/loses here”. It is decidedly more on what the Bengals do…which is the way it is most in their own control. 

[Jamie_B]

1 minute ago, Le Tigre said:

The thing I have seen in both playoff machines, is the reduced emphasis on “if so and so wins/loses here”. It is decidedly more on what the Bengals do…which is the way it is most in their own control. 

 

 

The NYT one allows you to chose other games too which changes the percentages. I only chose the Bengals games as we can control that.

[claptonrocks]

1 hour ago, Jamie_B said:

 

 

Not just 3-1 but we have to win the two division games. Your percentages go down if you don't.

 

For instance (Using that NYT playoff machine) 

 

3-1 only losing to the Vikings - 84%

3-1 only losing to the Chiefs - 80%

3-1 only losing to the Stealers - 76%

3-1 only losing to the Browns - 74%

All the he percentages are high.

I see 3-1 ..

KC isn't infallible either.

 

 

[Jamie_B]

Just now, claptonrocks said:

All the he percentages are high.

I see 3-1 ..

KC isn't infallible either.

 

 

 

I think 3-1 feels right too, and think KC can be beat. But I worry about the Browns and Steelers pass rush to be honest. Hopefully we win those as they are the most important of all the games. Can not lose in the division anymore.

[|BlackJesus|]

[claptonrocks]

39 minutes ago, BlackJesus said:

AFCN...  They hurt teams outside the division by ferocity .

 

Bengals punish teams.

Inbreds hurt teams.

 

 

[Jamie_B]

[dex]

Six teams at 7-6. Sure, the Bengals have a head-to-head win against a couple of those teams, but that matters more when only a couple of teams are fighting for the back end of the playoffs. If there is still a cluster of teams like that at the end of the season it feels like the bad tiebreakers will come into play.

[|High School Harry|]

25 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

Saturday 

Squeels at Clots... go Clots

Denver at Detroit... go Loins

Sunday

Texans at Tenn... go Tenn

Dallas at Buffalo... go Cowboinks

 

Also Sunday

Rats at Jags... go Jags

Da Bears at Da Clowns... go Bears

 

[Jamie_B]

9 minutes ago, dex said:

Six teams at 7-6. Sure, the Bengals have a head-to-head win against a couple of those teams, but that matters more when only a couple of teams are fighting for the back end of the playoffs. If there is still a cluster of teams like that at the end of the season it feels like the bad tiebreakers will come into play.

 

Been running a few scenarios. There is one where 10 wins does not get us in. That worries me. 11 gets us in regardless of all other outcomes.

[|High School Harry|]

Don't know why I am posting this because I am wrong far more often than right but...

I can see our making the playoffs or not being determined on the final game of the regular season

here on January 6 or 7.  Can the NFL make that a Sunday night game?

[Jamie_B]

15 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

Don't know why I am posting this because I am wrong far more often than right but...

I can see our making the playoffs or not being determined on the final game of the regular season

here on January 6 or 7.  Can the NFL make that a Sunday night game?

 

There is a scenario where it comes down to having to beat the Browns to get in. Here is the rule for week 18 schedule flexing.

 

Scheduling for Week 18

As in prior seasons, for Week 18, the final weekend of the season, the scheduling of the Saturday, Sunday afternoon, and the Sunday night games is not assigned. The schedule for Week 18 will be announced no later than six days prior to that week's Saturday game (January 6, 2024).

[gupps]

Remaining schedule for the teams "in the hunt"

 

Bengals                                       

• Week 15: Minnesota Vikings
• Week 16: at Pittsburgh Stealers
• Week 17: at Kansas City Chiefs
• Week 18: Cleveland Browns

Browns

• Week 15: Chicago Bears
• Week 16: at Houston Texans
• Week 17: New York Jets
• Week 18: at Cincinnati Bengals

Stealers

• Week 15: at Indianapolis Colts
• Week 16: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• Week 17: at Seattle Seahawks
• Week 18: at Baltimore Ravens

Colts

• Week 15: Pittsburgh Stealers
• Week 16: at Atlanta Falcons
• Week 17: Las Vegas Raiders
• Week 18: Houston Texans

Texans

 

• Week 15: at Tennessee Titans
• Week 16: Cleveland Browns 
• Week 17: Tennessee Titans 
• Week 18: at Indianapolis Colts:

Broncos

• Week 15: at Detroit Lions 
• Week 16: New England Patriots
• Week 17: Los Angeles Chargers 
• Week 18: at Las Vegas Raiders

Bills

• Week 15: Dallas Cowboys
• Week 16: at Los Angeles Chargers 
• Week 17: New England Patriots
• Week 18: at Miami Dolphins

 

Broncos have the easiest schedule, we have the hardest. Any given Sunday and all that, but it's gonna be a tough row to hoe.

[Cricket]

 

I just want to say that it’s absolutely ridiculous that the league would have two teams play each other just two weeks apart.  
 

In addition to Titans-Texans, the NY Giants and the Eagles have the same issue (Weeks 16 and 18).  
 

Do they have a third-grader in charge of scheduling???  
 

😡

 

 

[CincyInDC]

12 hours ago, Cricket said:

Do they have a third-grader in charge of scheduling???  

 

[Amazon] AWS, lol. Constant commercials for it you know. 

 

https://aws.amazon.com/sports/nfl/schedule/

[Cricket]

2 hours ago, CincyInDC said:

 

[Amazon] AWS, lol. Constant commercials for it you know. 

 

https://aws.amazon.com/sports/nfl/schedule/

So it’s set up by Amazon…for Amazon to make more money.  🥷 Then I guess it makes sense to try to keep the largest-market NY Giants alive longer by scheduling them against the defending NFC Champions for Weeks 16 and 18.  🥷   I guess they figured making it Weeks 17 and 18 might raise eyebrows…

 

They have over 20,000 “rules” in the algorithm.  I would suggest that they simply change the one that says games between the same division opponents should be at least two weeks apart to seven or eight weeks apart (or even just five or six weeks).  Just change one number in the algorithm.  
 

[Personally, I’m also not much of a fan of the Week 1 & Week 18 pairing (like Bengals/Browns this season) and would also recommend the addition of a “not more than XX weeks apart” rule (perhaps 12 or 13 weeks).  But maybe that’s just me.]

[Bleeds Orange]

12 hours ago, Cricket said:

So it’s set up by Amazon…for Amazon to make more money.  🥷 Then I guess it makes sense to try to keep the largest-market NY Giants alive longer by scheduling them against the defending NFC Champions for Weeks 16 and 18.  🥷   I guess they figured making it Weeks 17 and 18 might raise eyebrows…

 

They have over 20,000 “rules” in the algorithm.  I would suggest that they simply change the one that says games between the same division opponents should be at least two weeks apart to seven or eight weeks apart (or even just five or six weeks).  Just change one number in the algorithm.  
 

[Personally, I’m also not much of a fan of the Week 1 & Week 18 pairing (like Bengals/Browns this season) and would also recommend the addition of a “not more than XX weeks apart” rule (perhaps 12 or 13 weeks).  But maybe that’s just me.]

 

It's not just you. I agree. Last year the Commanders played the Giants TWO STRAIGHT GAMES.  They had them December 4, then had a bye, then played them again on the 18th.

 

And there always seem to be disadvantages built in for some teams, such as having the Bengals open up with two tough division games to begin this season and having all three of their division road games in prime time last year.

[claptonrocks]

16 hours ago, Bleeds Orange said:

 

It's not just you. I agree. Last year the Commanders played the Giants TWO STRAIGHT GAMES.  They had them December 4, then had a bye, then played them again on the 18th.

 

And there always seem to be disadvantages built in for some teams, such as having the Bengals open up with two tough division games to begin this season and having all three of their division road games in prime time last year.

And still..the Bengals will make the playoffs...😊

[sparky151]

The league tries to schedule division games down the stretch to keep more teams in contention. In some cases like Buffalo/Miami, there can be weather effects in play as well. 

[Arkansas Bengal]

NFL playoff picture: How things stand ahead of Ravens-Jaguars

Story by Mark Schofield • 2h

 

When Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season finally drew to a close, the playoff picture was rather chaotic.

 

In the AFC alone, six teams boasted matching 7-6 records, crowding the field for the final two Wild Card spots. Over in the NFC, a glut of teams with identical 6-7 records left us resorting to multiple tiebreakers to see who would be in, and who would be out, if the playoffs were upon us.

 

Thanks to results this weekend, the picture has become the slightest bit clearer. There are still two games remaining this week — the Sunday Night Football tile between the Baltimore Ravens and the Jacksonville Jaguars, and a big NFC clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night — but here is how things stand at the moment.

 

We will update the NFL playoff picture after each of the final two games this week.

 

Also, before we get going you might want to familiarize yourself with the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures. We’re gonna be using them ... a lot.

 

AFC

In right now

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)

Remaining games: at Jaguars, at 49ers, Dolphins, Stealers

2. Miami Dolphins (10-4)

Remaining games: Cowboys, at Ravens, Bills

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)

Remaining games: Raiders, Bengals, at Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)

Remaining games: Ravens, at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans

5. Cleveland Browns (9-5)

Remaining games: at Texans, Jets, at Bengals

6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

Remaining games: at Stealers, at Chiefs, Browns

7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)

Remaining games: at Falcons, Raiders, Texans

In the hunt

8. Houston Texans (8-6)

Remaining games: Browns, Titans, at Colts

9. Buffalo Bills (8-6)

Remaining games: at Chargers, Patriots, at Dolphins

10. Pittsburgh Stealers (7-7)

Remaining games: Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

11. Denver Broncos (7-7)

Remaining games: Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders

 

Let’s start at the top. With their win on Sunday against the Jets, the Dolphins moved to 10-4 on the year. But they are still behind the Ravens for the top spot in the conference at the moment. However, should Baltimore lose tonight, Miami would slide into the top spot, as they would have the better conference record.

 

Regarding the final two spots, the Bengals are tied with the Colts, the Bills, and the Texans. Under the tiebreaker rules, the two AFC South teams are pitted against each other until one is left standing. In this process the Colts “eliminate” the Texans, as Indianapolis has the better head-to-head record.

 

Then between the three. remaining teams, Cincinnati has wins over both Indianapolis and Buffalo, so they slide into sixth. Between Indianapolis and Buffalo, the Colts have the better conference record, so they drop into seventh, while the Bills slide out of playoff position.

 

Between the Texans and the Bills, Houston has the edge right now due to a better conference record. So the Texans are in eighth, and the Bills in ninth.

AFC playoff matchups if the postseason started right now

If the AFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:

 

• Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
• Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
• Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
•  

The Baltimore Ravens, as outlined above, would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the AFC.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-playoff-picture-how-things-stand-ahead-of-ravens-jaguars/ar-AA1lEjcL?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=bfb4cfc4395740909d4fdaac7d4e2c0d&ei=30

[Le Tigre]

Wonder what the benefit would be if the Jags fell out of the AFCS lead. 
 

They have an apparent easy schedule after tonight. But they have been shaky for a while now, so they could lose some more.