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Building the Bengals 2024 Edition: Roster at 63/90


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37 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

Boyd and Reader have both said they would like to be back.

I am very OK with both returning.

Now do they want to come back enough to sign deals that are not

ball busters for the franchise?

 

I read somewhere that as Boyd was about to sign he dropped the pen. 

 

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On 1/8/2024 at 11:21 AM, claptonrocks said:

They won't..

No matter what JB says about it.

Chase will demand 30mil per and likely get it.

No room for another 20 mil or so WR.

Brian Thomas is looking intriguing

but doubt they draft him with OT and DT in need.

This class is loaded with WRs..

 

That's why it just doesn't make sense to me. It's bad enough tying up all that money with a QB and one receiver (Chase). Which we HAVE to do, you cannot let Chase leave.

 

So many holes... been discussed to death, but what do you do at RT / LG? Hell even Cappa looked a little sketch to me sometimes.

 

D-line of course - can't see it making sense to bring Reader back, so now you have 2 problems - didn't have a great interior push with Reader, now we have less. 

 

LB's need to be addressed - Pratt looked like he got paid and mailed it in, and Wilson looks slow.

 

Too much for my feeble brain... glad I don't have that job.

 

 

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  • MichaelWeston changed the title to Building the Bengals 2024 Edition: Roster at 48/90

Dehner article at the Athletic on his FA projections:

 

The Big 5

CB Chidobe Awuzie

Age (start of camp): 29 (5/24/95)

Stat: Awuzie only has had a passer rating against greater than 100 twice in his seven-year career. Both came in contract years while dealing with injuries (2020 and 2023).

PFF positional grade: 51 of 80

Career cash: $25.8 million

Quote of note: “My speeds are still very high and my cuts, I feel like myself. All it takes is other people to see that.” – Awuzie on his athleticism late in the season coming off ACL surgery

Analysis: Awuzie will start somewhere next year. It’s probably not in Cincinnati where he knows the Bengals are less likely to put him over Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner. If projecting his level of play with a full year coming off the ACL and improvement shown in the second half of the year, he could end up a bargain for someone in the $10 million per year range.

Chance of return: 15 percent

WR Tyler Boyd

Age: 29 (11/15/94)

Stat: Boyd led all WRs in 2018 with 17.9 percent of his routes on third or fourth down leading to him catching a pass for a conversion. That’s the sixth-best individual mark of the last 10 seasons. He’d never dipped below 9.6 percent since but fell to 6.9 percent this year. It wasn’t for lack of attention, as you can see, but rather a dramatic fall in the rate of conversion.

3D/4D: Targets per route w/ Burrow
PLAYER
  
2023
  
2022
  
2021
  
19.4%
25.9%
20.5%
18.6%
16.3%
20.0%
20.8%
17.5%
16.1%
3D/4D: First downs per target w/ Burrow
PLAYER 2023 2022 2021
61.9%
51.1%
44.4%
53.8%
40.7%
51.3%
40.9%
56.7%
60.0%

PFF positional grade: 72 of 80

Career cash: $47.3 million

Quote of note: “This is my first free agency so I don’t know what to expect. This is the only franchise I ever played for and the franchise that gave me my first opportunity to play in the National Football League. I’m going to always feel like I can be here depending on the situation but, it’s a business. It’s a business.” – Boyd on potentially returning

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Analysis: All signs point to the end in Cincinnati for Boyd, who should have a market of teams in search of a slot receiver. His reliability and savvy will be gold for any team grooming a young quarterback. He probably ends up with a multi-year deal in the $7-9 million per season range which would be too rich for the Bengals’ balance sheet.

Chance of return: 15 percent

WR Tee Higgins

Age: 25 (1/18/99)

Stat: From 2021-22 ranked fifth of 44 qualifying receivers in catch percentage of passes of 20-plus air yards (51.5 percent). Last year, dropped to 23.1 percent.

PFF positional grade: 43 of 102

Career cash: $9.9 million

Quote of note: “I expect Tee to be back.” – Joe Burrow

Analysis: The expectation laid out by Burrow told the story. The Bengals are prepared to use the franchise tag ($21 million) on Higgins by the March 5 deadline if they cannot get a long-term extension done. Don’t look for a tag-and-trade as they chase a championship with Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow and Higgins in 2024. You never know with free agency and unpredictable movement, but keeping the group together for at least one more ride feels like a lock.

Chance of return: 95 percent

DL DJ Reader

Age: 30 (7/1/94)

Stat: One of five qualifying defensive tackles to register PFF grade of 75-plus in run defense and pass rush.

PFF positional grade: 11 of 73

Career cash: $56.7 million

Quote of note: “No idea. No idea. Couldn’t tell you.” – Reader on what he expects with his free agency market.

Analysis: The two-time captain was about to get paid for multiple years with tens of millions guaranteed. His market is unpredictable after tearing his quad and entering his age 30 season. The landing spot could be any direction, including a potential one-year deal back in Cincinnati if his injury scares teams away. Reader said he would love to be back, if possible.

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Chance of return: 45 percent

OL Jonah Williams

Age: 26 (11/17/97)

Stat: After missing his rookie season and half of year two, Williams has not missed a regular-season start in the last three years. He owns the fourth-most total snaps in the NFL over that span.

PFF positional grade: 50 of 58 (left and right tackles)

Career cash: $30.2 million

Quote of note: “The culture is important. Being in an organization that values me and values winning is important. You know when it’s right and I’ll be waiting to see what it is.” — Williams on what he is looking for next in his career beyond the money.

Analysis: Williams’ switch to the right side and putting away any frustration with being over there by the move for Orlando Brown Jr. turned into a significant win for him this year. He offers versatility and a solid level of play on both sides, valuable traits in a league desperately seeking more adequate line play. Given the Bengals’ approach with Higgins, long list of holes elsewhere, shift to larger offensive linemen, expected strong market for his services and contentious history with the front office, Williams returning to Cincinnati appears highly unlikely.

Chance of return: 10 percent

 
 
Jonah Williams moved to right tackle in 2023 and was part of an offensive line that started all 17 games together. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

Tight ends

Tanner Hudson

Age: 29 (11/12/94)

Stat: Led Bengals tight ends with 39 receptions for 352 yards in just 12 games. His mark of 1.56 yards per route run was the best by any Bengals tight end since Tyler Eifert in 2016 (1.64) and far more efficient than Hayden Hurst in 2022 and CJ Uzomah in 2021, both posting 1.06.

Analysis: The Bengals found something in Hudson and, in turn, Hudson found something in them. Don’t forget, he’s bounced around the league but finally made a connection with a quarterback. There’s interest in both sides keeping that relationship going.

Chance of return: 90 percent

Bengals TE seasons under Zac Taylor
YEAR
  
PLAYER
  
ROUTES
  
YDS/RTE
  
1D/TARGET
  
2023
227
0.51
19%
2023
225
1.56
42%
2023
190
0.86
31%
2022
387
1.07
37%
2022
203
0.68
33%
2021
461
1.07
38%
2020
412
0.85
30%
2019
356
1.22
38%
2019
254
0.95
30%

Irv Smith Jr.

Age: 25 (8/9/98)

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Stat: Smith ran 227 routes this season. There were 52 tight ends with at least 150. None had fewer yards per route run than Smith (0.51). Only three others posted less than 0.75 yards per route.

Analysis: This experiment failed miserably and don’t expect either side to have interest in running it back.

Chance of return: 1 percent

Drew Sample

Age: 28 (4/16/96)

Stat: Lined up in the backfield 88 times, most of any tight end. Stayed in to pass block on 30 of those, also most in the league, more than twice as much as any other tight end. One of seven tight ends with a PFF pass block and run block grade better than 61.

Analysis: Created immense value for himself on a one-year deal coming off his knee injury. With no answers at running back, they had to lean into Sample’s knowledge of pass protection on passing downs, where he excelled, specifically helping Jake Browning against Minnesota. They might have to put up a small fight for his services given the rising interest in blocking tight ends around the league, but I suspect they pay it.

Chance of return: 75 percent

Mitchell Wilcox

Age: 27 (11/7/96)

Stat: Logged 728 regular-season snaps on offense and 558 on special teams the past two seasons.

Analysis: There should be interest on both sides in Wilcox returning, but look for a rookie or two to enter the equation and challenge him. The advantage he owns is the development over time playing far more snaps than most realized — or expected — when he came from off the radar to make the team in 2021.

Chance of return: 85 percent


Roster depth

WR Trenton Irwin

Age: 28 (12/10/95)

Stat: In games where Burrow started and finished while Irwin played at least 45 percent of the offensive snaps, the Bengals are 6-1, the only loss the 30-27 defeat against Houston this year. He caught 20 passes for 289 yards and five TDs in those seven games.

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Analysis: He’s become a dream cog in the back of the receiver room with how hard he works, his trust from Burrow and his ability to play multiple spots. He probably needs to fight for his roster spot next year, but it’s hard to imagine the Bengals let him out the door.

Chance of return: 80 percent

 
 
Trenton Irwin celebrates after scoring a touchdown with wide receiver Tyler Boyd. (Katie Stratman / USA Today)

DL Josh Tupou

Age: 30 (5/2/94)

Stat: Joins Joe Mixon, Sam Hubbard and Tyler Boyd as the only players on the 2023 roster to play for Marvin Lewis and every season with Zac Taylor.

Analysis: The interior defensive line requires a significant overhaul. That likely means the end of the line for Tupou.

Chance of return: 20 percent

RB Trayveon Williams

Age: 26 (10/18/97)

Stat: Played 156 snaps on offense, more than he did in his first four seasons combined. His 294 special teams snaps were a career high and more than the previous three seasons combined.

Analysis: The Bengals need to remake the running back group, but that doesn’t mean Williams ends up elsewhere. He will almost certainly be in a battle for a spot should he return, but there’s a scenario where he’s still part of the reserve group.

Chance of return: 45 percent

LB Akeem Davis-Gaither

Age: 26 (9/21/97)

Stat: Never played more than 12 snaps in a game until the finale against Cleveland, relegated to a sub-package role.

Analysis: The arrow appeared to be trending up coming out of 2022 for Davis-Gaither, but when Germaine Pratt surprisingly re-signed, his opportunity to finally take on a larger, starting role evaporated. He played less on defense this year than ever. It’s hard to imagine he signs back up for that if an opportunity for snaps exists elsewhere. The club really values his contribution on special teams, but will that be enough to reach an agreement?

Chance of return: 49 percent

OL Cody Ford

Age: 27 (12/28/96)

Stat: Owns 32 career starts and would have added to the number if an injury outside of center happened on the offensive line.

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Analysis: At 6-foot-3, 329 pounds, he appeals to the Bengals’ line strategy of investing in size and power. They were pleased with his approach and contribution so look for a reunion to be in the works.

Chance of return: 75 percent

LB Markus Bailey

Age: 27 (3/7/97)

Stat: Led the team in special teams tackles in 2022 and finished second this past season.

Analysis: Nobody has logged more special teams snaps than Bailey (633) the last two seasons. While special teams coordinator Darrin Simmons dealt with youth everywhere, Bailey was one of the few consistent veterans. It would make sense to see a return in that role with most of the reserve linebacker spots open.

Chance of return: 70 percent

 
 
Markus Bailey has been a mainstay on special teams for the Bengals. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

OL Max Scharping

Age: 27 (8/10/96)

Stat: Had one offensive snap this year before the finale against Cleveland.

Analysis: Disappointing year for Scharping, who came off a solid performance when thrown into the postseason fire the year prior. He looked to be the top backup on the line and even took over the backup center role, but Ford ended up the backup guard and forced Scharping to watch all season. He should have a better chance at a larger role elsewhere and it would make sense for him to take it.

Chance of return: 8 percent

LB Joe Bachie

Age: 26 (2/26/98)

Stat: Played at least 140 special teams snaps each of the last three seasons.

Analysis: Somebody needs to return among the trio of backup linebackers and special teamers. Will it be all three? Perhaps, but Bachie would be likely, even though he would have to fight for a roster spot in camp either way.

Chance of return: 70 percent

QB AJ McCarron

Age: 33 (9/13/90)

Stat: Made $11.8 million in cash over his nine seasons in the NFL, starting five games.

Analysis: McCarron made sense when Burrow went down as an insurance policy with game experience. He provided a snug fit as a backup to Browning but wasn’t needed. Look for the Bengals to try and develop another young quarterback on the practice squad rather than lean back into McCarron.

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Chance of return: 5 percent


Exclusive rights

QB Jake Browning

Age: 28 (4/11/96)

Stat: Since 2011, 91 quarterbacks have made the first seven starts of their careers. Of those, Browning ranked 14th in Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt, ninth in passer rating, eighth in success percentage and first in completion percentage.

Analysis: Browning will be tendered as an exclusive rights free agent and the rules specify he can’t negotiate with anyone else and is locked into that one-year contract at the league minimum for a second-year player. As that position becomes even more valuable this offseason, the Bengals have found an ideal situation.

Chance of return: 100 percent

LS Cal Adomitis

Age: 26

Stat: Has zero unplayable snaps in his two seasons as long snapper.

Analysis: Don’t know if Adomitis will chase down Clark Harris’ 212 games with the Bengals, but with two strong seasons, he’s on his way. He should receive the same ERFA tender of league minimum for a third-year player.

Chance of return: 100 percent

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https://www.cincyjungle.com/2024/1/11/24033117/joe-mixon-contract-bengals-2024-nfl-season

Will Joe Mixon be with the Bengals for the 2024 NFL season?

Another possibility is a change at the running back position. Joe Mixon, who will be 28 in July, had a bounce-back year in 2023. After only gaining 814 yards on the ground in 2022, he averaged four yards per carry, scored nine rushing touchdowns, and gained 1,034 yards on the ground this season, adding 376 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. 

Once Joe Burrow went down with a wrist injury, the Bengals shifted focus and began to lean on the running game when they could, which helped the team go on a three-game winning streak that kept them in the playoff hunt all the way through Week 17.

 

Mixon restructured his contract after 2022, taking a pay cut. The Bengals will owe Mixon a roster bonus of $3 million on March 16th, just four days after the new league year begins, and it’s fully guaranteed. 

So this means that if the Bengals decide to pair Chase Brown with a running back other than Mixon, that decision will come soon.

It’s not really right to say the Bengals are cheap anymore. Maybe once they were, but not now. What I will say is they’re smart with their money. They know how to spend it correctly. 

I won’t weigh in right now on whether or not Mixon should be on the roster, but I will say if he’s on the roster on March 17, he’ll be on the team in September, barring some sort of injury.

:::::::::::::::

My Vote... He'll be back but shouldn't be.  Besides, $3 Million here... $3 Million there... it all adds up

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31 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

Hell be back and should be. Too many other concerns to remove a 1000 yard RB from the roster right now.

Given the way the team operates - they asked Mixon for a pay cut on his last two years, he agreed so to the team this was always a 2 year committment. And Mr. Brown likes to keep his agreements whenever possible. Mixon is also a locker room leader and with Reader out for sometime and likley Boyd gone, it would be wise to keep some of the leadership core intact.

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24 minutes ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Given the way the team operates - they asked Mixon for a pay cut on his last two years, he agreed so to the team this was always a 2 year committment. And Mr. Brown likes to keep his agreements whenever possible. Mixon is also a locker room leader and with Reader out for sometime and likley Boyd gone, it would be wise to keep some of the leadership core intact.

 

100% agree

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1 hour ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Given the way the team operates - they asked Mixon for a pay cut on his last two years, he agreed so to the team this was always a 2 year committment. And Mr. Brown likes to keep his agreements whenever possible. Mixon is also a locker room leader and with Reader out for sometime and likley Boyd gone, it would be wise to keep some of the leadership core intact.

 

How the hell is a guy that refuses to block a "locker room leader"? Maybe he really is, but ahould he be?

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  • 1 month later...
  • MichaelWeston changed the title to Building the Bengals 2024 Edition: Roster at 51/90
  • 2 weeks later...
9 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Comp picks for 2024 have been announced.

 

OTC had projected us getting a 5th and 7th but the actual picks are a pair of 6th rounders.

Most 6 rounders turn into camp fodder.

Exceptions yes .

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33 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

I can't see anyone giving up a 4th rounder or anything else of value for some picks at the bottom of the 6th.

 

Trades like that happen all the time. There are teams with bad rosters or cap issues who need multiple cheap players and will trade down for more picks. 

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