Pick 18, what should Bengals do?

[|BlackJesus|]

^ I am really puzzled by his rankings of Fashanu at 21, Latham at 32, and Mims at 40. All 3 of them could easily go in the top 15-18 picks. 

[Inigo Montoya]

Mims might not go as high as I originally thought.  He’s a physical freak and his speed/agility at that size seems almost impossible.  He’s also pretty raw with limited experience and he missed time with injuries, including a high ankle sprain that required surgery last year.  There’s risk historically drafting a player with this kind of profile.

[claptonrocks]

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

 

 

 

Some draft rankings. Check out the RAS scores for the NTs. 

I noticed G/C Graham Barton with a

9.99 RAS..

Bengals will pass but he could go very 

late 1st early 2nd..

How good is he?

[|BlackJesus|]

Chris Simms on Mims (ranked as his 3rd best OT in the class)

 

* He compares him to Trent Brown (who could mentor him here)

[sparky151]

21 hours ago, BlackJesus said:

^ I am really puzzled by his rankings of Fashanu at 21, Latham at 32, and Mims at 40. All 3 of them could easily go in the top 15-18 picks. 

 

Those are Goodberry's rankings based on various factors. Not where he expects them to fall in the actual draft. 

[|BlackJesus|]

[|BlackJesus|]

^ It's interesting to see how they rank this OT class with those of the last 5 years ... 

 

[dex]

Less than a week to go until the draft, and there seems to be a growing consensus that there are 12 players who are an absolute lock to go in the first 17 picks. Not saying they will be the first 12 picks or who might select each and every one, only that they will surely be off the board before pick 18.

 

5 QBs - Williams/Maye/Daniels/McCarthy/Penix (Penix might seem like a reach, but there are so many teams in the top 16 or so that need a QB...Seattle at pick 16 feels like his floor)

3 WRs - Harrison/Nabers/Odonze

1 TE - Bowers

1 OL - Alt

1 EDGE - Turner

2 CBs - Arnold/Mitchell

 

That would 5 other players will be selected before pick 18. The Bengals have to be hoping that an EDGE or 2 like Verse/Latu go in the first 17 picks. There will be some other offensive linemen taken ahead of pick 18, depending on team grades and scheme fit. Denver at 12 definitely could take Murphy if they can't use the pick to solve their QB problem. The Broncos don't have the draft capital to move up. The New Orleans at 14 will definitely be going OL but which one... Fashanu, Fuaga, Fantanu or Latham? Seattle at 16 is another team that could go OL. Jacksonville would like to go CB but maybe both Arnold/Mitchell are off the board. If they don't have a particular OL prospect they covet there, the Jags could trade back like they did last year. Some team might want to come after Murphy (if he's still on the board) or a sliding OT that they fear the Bengals would select.

[sparky151]

I wouldn't say 5 QBs is a lock. It would be nice if 5 or 6 were taken ahead of us but I'd put the over/under on that at 4 QBs. There will certainly be more than 1 O-lineman taken though your guess is as good as mine as to who they are. 

[sparky151]

Here's the link to Joe Goodberry's draft sheet:

 

https://t.co/UjwuYdeeXo

 

 

[Cricket]

38 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Here's the link to Joe Goodberry's draft sheet:

 

https://t.co/UjwuYdeeXo

 

 

It would be interesting to see how Goodberry’s rankings last year aligned with the actual selections.  😎

 

 

[claptonrocks]

10 hours ago, dex said:

Less than a week to go until the draft, and there seems to be a growing consensus that there are 12 players who are an absolute lock to go in the first 17 picks. Not saying they will be the first 12 picks or who might select each and every one, only that they will surely be off the board before pick 18.

 

5 QBs - Williams/Maye/Daniels/McCarthy/Penix (Penix might seem like a reach, but there are so many teams in the top 16 or so that need a QB...Seattle at pick 16 feels like his floor)

3 WRs - Harrison/Nabers/Odonze

1 TE - Bowers

1 OL - Alt

1 EDGE - Turner

2 CBs - Arnold/Mitchell

 

That would 5 other players will be selected before pick 18. The Bengals have to be hoping that an EDGE or 2 like Verse/Latu go in the first 17 picks. There will be some other offensive linemen taken ahead of pick 18, depending on team grades and scheme fit. Denver at 12 definitely could take Murphy if they can't use the pick to solve their QB problem. The Broncos don't have the draft capital to move up. The New Orleans at 14 will definitely be going OL but which one... Fashanu, Fuaga, Fantanu or Latham? Seattle at 16 is another team that could go OL. Jacksonville would like to go CB but maybe both Arnold/Mitchell are off the board. If they don't have a particular OL prospect they covet there, the Jags could trade back like they did last year. Some team might want to come after Murphy (if he's still on the board) or a sliding OT that they fear the Bengals would select.

I'm presuming Mims will be gone

before we get to him.

J,C Lathem is my new choice.

 

Question 

Would the Bengals draft Murphy before Lathem if both in play.

The hole at RT might be the deal breaker no?

[dex]

50 minutes ago, claptonrocks said:

I'm presuming Mins will be gone

before we get to him.

J,C Lathem is my new choice.

 

Question 

Would the Bengals draft Murphy before Lathem if both in play.

The hole at RT might be the deal breaker no?

I feel like Latham with his 30-plus starts in the SEC is far more likely to be taken before Mims with his paltry 8 starts. This would be a weird stat to look up, but I'd be willing to bet in the the history of the NFL there has never been an OL with less than double digit college starts taken with a top 20 overall pick. 

[sparky151]

Alabama is the new Nebraska for producing overrated O-linemen. Thirty years ago Nebraska turned out lots of guys who looked dominant in college then weren't so good in the NFL. Dean Steinkuhler went 2nd overall in the draft as an example. Latham seems like the latest maxed out Bama lineman in the tradition of Evan Neal and Alex Leatherwood, a guy with good tape but not good tools. 

[I_C_Deadpeople]

3 hours ago, claptonrocks said:

I'm presuming Mins will be gone

before we get to him.

J,C Lathem is my new choice.

 

Question 

Would the Bengals draft Murphy before Lathem if both in play.

The hole at RT might be the deal breaker no?

The Murphy argument might be that because the DL pool is weak this year and the OL group is strong ; we may be better off with Murphy in Rd 1 and other OL in Rd 2/3/4 . 
I have seen this in mocks where once you get through the first three DT’s it gets sparse until the last day rounds. Conversely there are a lot of good OL in the first 4 rounds - some may be interior only but good players all the same. 

[sparky151]

Sweat at 80 or 97 would be a better pick than Murphy at 18. There's a reason why Sweat won the Outland rather than his teammate. 

[claptonrocks]

5 hours ago, dex said:

I feel like Latham with his 30-plus starts in the SEC is far more likely to be taken before Mims with his paltry 8 starts. This would be a weird stat to look up, but I'd be willing to bet in the the history of the NFL there has never been an OL with less than double digit college starts taken with a top 20 overall pick. 

Good points .

 

[texbengal]

30 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Sweat at 80 or 97 would be a better pick than Murphy at 18. There's a reason why Sweat won the Outland rather than his teammate. 

Depends on what you’re looking for. IMO Murphy is far superior as an inside rusher but Sweat is better overall as strictly a run defender. Murphy is pretty good there, he’s just not a guy who can hold up consistently in the run game. But I’d argue that neither can BJ Hill. 
 

Re Outland, like a lot of those awards, it’s a popularity contest. Not saying Sweat didn’t deserve recognition, but Alex Leatherwood won it, too. Michael Oluwatimi last year. So it doesn’t mean much. 
 

If the Bengals want a run stuffer, then yeah, first round is not the place to find it. But looking at the roster, the DT cupboard is pretty bare everywhere, and BJ Hill is on the last year of his deal. Further, DT generally is a weak class this year, whereas supposedly you can still find good OL after the first round. So while I’d prefer a move to protect the franchise and grab an OL, I wouldn’t be shocked if they took Murphy at 18 if he’s there… or failing that, if they love Johnny Newton, maybe a trade back and get another (or a better) pick in round 2 or 3. 

[Dautcom08]

On 4/18/2024 at 4:55 PM, BlackJesus said:

 

They should also have an "NFL grade" column for the current active players to see correlation of prospect score to actual NFL performance.

[gupps]

11 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Sweat at 80 or 97 would be a better pick than Murphy at 18. There's a reason why Sweat won the Outland rather than his teammate. 

Why not both? Murphy in the first and Sweat in the 3rd. Grab Paul in round 2 and another one with our other 3rd or our 4th.

 

I may need a lie  down now. 

[dex]

11 hours ago, texbengal said:

Depends on what you’re looking for. IMO Murphy is far superior as an inside rusher but Sweat is better overall as strictly a run defender. Murphy is pretty good there, he’s just not a guy who can hold up consistently in the run game. But I’d argue that neither can BJ Hill. 

A big part of the appeal of Murphy to me is how effective he is at defending against the run at his less than ideal size and length. Obviously Murphy isn't the immovable object that Sweat is, but it still amazes me that Murphy got about 70 more snaps in the A gap than Sweat did, even with fewer overall defensive snaps than Sweat. Murphy handled double teams well at the college level, as he is incredibly strong physically. Here is part of what Dane Brugler's The Beast said about Murphy (and how he might be used gap-wise):

 

Overall, Murphy doesn’t have ideal length, but his rare combination of lower-body twitch, natural leverage and power throughout his frame sets his apart. With his disruptive energy, both as a pass rusher and versus the run, he projects as an impact starter who can play shaded nose or three -technique, similar to Grady Jarrett.

[BBR]

So....  If Patrick Paul tested in the top 25 over the last 20 years or whatever and by all accounts had a good collegiate career, what exactly makes him a 2nd round pick other than the massive amount of group think done by the draftnik community.  I seriously hate the shit that most of these guys peddle to fans as actual analysis but I guess the fans gobble it up.

[|High School Harry|]

1 hour ago, BBR said:

So....  If Patrick Paul tested in the top 25 over the last 20 years or whatever and by all accounts had a good collegiate career, what exactly makes him a 2nd round pick other than the massive amount of group think done by the draftnik community.  I seriously hate the shit that most of these guys peddle to fans as actual analysis but I guess the fans gobble it up.

He's a bit older than the other OT prospects

[I_C_Deadpeople]

2 hours ago, BBR said:

So....  If Patrick Paul tested in the top 25 over the last 20 years or whatever and by all accounts had a good collegiate career, what exactly makes him a 2nd round pick other than the massive amount of group think done by the draftnik community.  I seriously hate the shit that most of these guys peddle to fans as actual analysis but I guess the fans gobble it up.

STRENGTHS: Looks the part with his large frame and rare overall body length … aggressive striking skills and relies on his natural size to overwhelm defenders once
engaged (see his battles with Tyree Wilson on the 2022 Texas Tech tape) … displays the quickness and bend out of his stance to answer explosive rushers all the way
around the arc … generally sees things quickly enough to answer stunts and blitzes … flashes the upper-body strength to latch and drive in the run game … benefited
from the “older brother theory” (both of his older brothers played high school and college football) … voted a two-time team captain, and NFL scouts say he cares
about his craft … started 44 games at left tackle in college, including the final 39 straight.
WEAKNESSES: Plays high and needs to keep his cleats in the ground (struggles with leverage were a common theme on his tape) … creates momentum with his
outside kick-slide, which leaves him susceptible to inside moves … late to recover with his lower body and reset his hands to answer power … inconsistent rhythm out
of his stance and hands tend to stray wide, inviting bull rushers to uproot him … subpar technique as a run blocker, ducking his head and l osing balance … did a much
better job avoiding holding calls in 2023 but still caught grabbing more than you want … suffered a sprained ankle and torn ligament in his foot (October 2020), which
required season-ending tightrope procedure … unproven positional flexibility with 100 percent of his 2,968 college snaps coming at left tackle.
SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Houston, Paul was a left tackle only in former head coach Dana Holgorsen’s version of the Air Raid zone -blocking scheme. He
started every game for the Cougars over the last three seasons and earned first team All-Conference honors each time. Paul is an athletic and competitive big man,
and his long arms are tough to escape in the run game and pass protection. However, his length becomes a detriment when he mi sses, and his pad level and timing
are still in the developmental phase. Overall, Paul has the size and length to keep defenders occupied, but his rhythm breaks down quickly, and opponents will find
success until he improves his rudimentary recovery technique and hand usage. Similar in ways to Chukwuma Okorafor, he has the tools to develop into a
functional NFL starter, but he might require a redshirt year.
GRADE: 2nd-3rd Round (No. 59 overall)

[sparky151]

14 hours ago, texbengal said:

Depends on what you’re looking for. IMO Murphy is far superior as an inside rusher but Sweat is better overall as strictly a run defender. Murphy is pretty good there, he’s just not a guy who can hold up consistently in the run game. But I’d argue that neither can BJ Hill. 
 

Re Outland, like a lot of those awards, it’s a popularity contest. Not saying Sweat didn’t deserve recognition, but Alex Leatherwood won it, too. Michael Oluwatimi last year. So it doesn’t mean much. 
 

If the Bengals want a run stuffer, then yeah, first round is not the place to find it. But looking at the roster, the DT cupboard is pretty bare everywhere, and BJ Hill is on the last year of his deal. Further, DT generally is a weak class this year, whereas supposedly you can still find good OL after the first round. So while I’d prefer a move to protect the franchise and grab an OL, I wouldn’t be shocked if they took Murphy at 18 if he’s there… or failing that, if they love Johnny Newton, maybe a trade back and get another (or a better) pick in round 2 or 3. 

 

Murphy (and Newton and Fisk) are good 3T prospects. No doubt they would bump Zach Carter out of a job. But we just signed a $13 million per year free agent at the position. It's not a position of great need compared to NT. Murphy isn't a real nose tackle. Unless Anarumo plans to change his scheme, he generates interior pass rush on obvious passing downs by moving Cam Sample or a bigger DE inside to rush 4 DEs. What we need to add on the interior d-line is a good run stuffer.  We don't need to use our first round pick to find one and if we took a DT at 18, it would be an opportunity lost to strengthen higher priority positions. 

 

Sure, the Outland is partly a popularity contest. What do you make of it that the Texas coaches put Sweat forward for the award over Murphy? Sort of like LSU putting Nabers ahead of Thomas for the Biletnikoff. It seems obvious to me that the schools preferences indicate their view of who is more deserving of the award. NFL teams don't have to share those views but they deserve consideration. 

 

Our D-line cupboard is overflowing compared with the O-line. If Trent Brown misses his average of 8 games this season, do you want Cody Ford or Jackson Carman starting half the year? D-linemen also rotate more and can usually play sooner as rookies than O-linemen. Protect the franchise. We need to use a first or second round pick on a right tackle and a third or fourth rounder on a nose tackle. The other picks can go for good players at WR, IOL, 3T, TE, RB, CB, LB, and a punter. 

 

4 hours ago, gupps said:

Why not both? Murphy in the first and Sweat in the 3rd. Grab Paul in round 2 and another one with our other 3rd or our 4th.

 

I may need a lie  down now. 

 

We probably need to double up on the O-line more than the D-line. Our 5 O-line starters are decent on paper but we have no depth and one of the starters regularly misses lots of games. On the D-line, we need a starting NT a lot more than a backup 3T. 

 

3 hours ago, dex said:

A big part of the appeal of Murphy to me is how effective he is at defending against the run at his less than ideal size and length. Obviously Murphy isn't the immovable object that Sweat is, but it still amazes me that Murphy got about 70 more snaps in the A gap than Sweat did, even with fewer overall defensive snaps than Sweat. Murphy handled double teams well at the college level, as he is incredibly strong physically. Here is part of what Dane Brugler's The Beast said about Murphy (and how he might be used gap-wise):

 

Overall, Murphy doesn’t have ideal length, but his rare combination of lower-body twitch, natural leverage and power throughout his frame sets his apart. With his disruptive energy, both as a pass rusher and versus the run, he projects as an impact starter who can play shaded nose or three -technique, similar to Grady Jarrett.

 

Murphy (or Newton) may well be better run defenders than Hill or Rankins. But they don't compare to Reader, who is the player we need to replace. Even with DJ in the lineup, we got run on too much last year. Bringing Vonn Bell back helps some but we need 2 NTs, the second to replace Tupou or Tufele, and probably a good run stopping LB on day 3. 

 

3 hours ago, BBR said:

So....  If Patrick Paul tested in the top 25 over the last 20 years or whatever and by all accounts had a good collegiate career, what exactly makes him a 2nd round pick other than the massive amount of group think done by the draftnik community.  I seriously hate the shit that most of these guys peddle to fans as actual analysis but I guess the fans gobble it up.

 

Paul is an ok prospect as a pass blocker. He is in no way one of the top 25 tackle prospects of the last 20 years. I'll guess he's drafted in the 25-50 range.