Lewdog Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='kennethmw' timestamp='1349659419' post='1167803'] Does seem to be a lot of soggy VJ's on here. [/quote] Enrico Polatzo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-GoBengals- Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 its certainly not an obvious call, i would have gone for it, but two field goals is easier than 1 TD, at least in this offense(designed around 5 yard passes looking for YAC... you grab points(in theory) and only need to gain 30-4 yards even if you are stuck way back after a punt... instead of 70 with no time outs.. its the safer choice. marvin has always made the safe choice.. hell i hate marvin lewis and dont even think this is a "horrible decision" its a judgement call and he went conservative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYbengals Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 I wasn't as upset about the FG try as i was about the PAT vs the 2 point conversion. It still doesn't make any sense to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lewdog Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='NYbengals' timestamp='1349660866' post='1167821'] I wasn't as upset about the FG try as i was about the PAT vs the 2 point conversion. It still doesn't make any sense to me... [/quote] I've said this numerous times, people keep forgetting the fact, the percentages of making a 2-point conversion is about half the chance of making a PAT. Also, the offensive line and running game weren't exactly doing well, and if they threw the ball instead, there is a short amount of field to use because they were so close to the end zone. People need to quit looking at just the score and take all the factors into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 Linky: http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm According to the Go-For-Two chart on this page, after scoring a TD to trim your deficit to 4 points (find "-4" in the first column) with 14:15 left in the game (call it 15:00) you should attempt the 2-point conversion if your probability of making it exceeds 61% (0.61). Most NFL teams make their 2-point conversions approximately 40% of the time. Kicking the XP at that point in the game was, mathematically, the correct call.... by a very large margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lewdog Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='AmishBengalFan' timestamp='1349661254' post='1167824'] Linky: [url="http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm"]http://www.footballc.../twoptchart.htm[/url] According to the Go-For-Two chart on this page, after scoring a TD to trim your deficit to 4 points (find "-4" in the first column) with 14:15 left in the game (call it 15:00) you should attempt the 2-point conversion if your probability of making it exceeds 61% (0.61). Most NFL teams make their 2-point conversions approximately 40% of the time. Kicking the XP at that point in the game was, mathematically, the correct call.... by a very large margin. [/quote] Exactly, because there is too much time left to allow for more scores without risking on a 2-point conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrDingleDangle Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 yeah i admit i jumped on the 2 point thing, but can understand that...the not going for the TD with this defense is crazy to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='MrDingleDangle' timestamp='1349661834' post='1167830'] yeah i admit i jumped on the 2 point thing, but can understand that...the not going for the TD with this defense is crazy to me [/quote] The defense played well, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredtoast Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='GoBengals' timestamp='1349660536' post='1167819'] its the safer choice. marvin has always made the safe choice.. [/quote] This is a common misconception. Marvin Lewis actually goes for it on 4th down more than many other head coaches in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredtoast Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='NYbengals' timestamp='1349660866' post='1167821'] I wasn't as upset about the FG try as i was about the PAT vs the 2 point conversion. It still doesn't make any sense to me... [/quote] Would you have gone for two in that situation if it was in the first half? If not then explain why we should have done it with over 14 minutes left. It was WAAAAAY to early to get desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeds Orange Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 This has most likely been explained in this discussion already, but it's late and I don't feel reading the whole thing right now, so... The score was 17-12 before ML decided to go for one. If he goes for two and doesn't make it, the score remains 17-12. If the Dolphins then get a FG, it's 20-12 and a TD and extra point no longer ties the game. Then how dumb does he look going for two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lewdog Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='Bleeds Orange' timestamp='1349667887' post='1167894'] This has most likely been explained in this discussion already, but it's late and I don't feel reading the whole thing right now, so... The score was 17-12 before ML decided to go for one. If he goes for two and doesn't make it, the score remains 17-12. If the Dolphins then get a FG, it's 20-12 and a TD and extra point no longer ties the game. Then how dumb does he look going for two? [/quote] Because when the Bengals kicked the extra point, it puts the Bengals down only a FG. A FG is so much easier to get than a TD. Then if the D can hold them for a punt or to a FG, the Bengals still have a chance to drive for a win or a tie. Marvin even made comments to as much. BTW something is weird today, I have agreed with Bengals1181 and Fred. O lord, if me and Kenneth agree, I think this site might go down for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincity Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='BengalRep85-9' timestamp='1349642705' post='1167646'] Nugent missed the FG..... [/quote] But if the FG would have been made, then you're down 1 and you don't have to drive for a TD, if you don't get a 4th and 5 then you're down by six... Either way, your defense HAS to get a stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='cincity' timestamp='1349699165' post='1167932'] But if the FG would have been made, then you're down 1 and you don't have to drive for a TD, if you don't get a 4th and 5 then you're down by six... Either way, your defense HAS to get a stop! [/quote] and the defense got that stop. This isn't directed at you, but don't get why so many are focusing on the decision, rather than the lack of execution of the decision. Missed field goal and a passing game that was just a little off today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincity Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 No.. I agree with the decision to take the points, if Nugent would have made it, Andy would have been a lot less pressed to try to make big plays to keep the drive going they could have dinked and dunked their way back into field goal position to win the game.. The defense was rolling, put that trust in the hands of your unit. Like someone said, the Bengals PLAYERS didn't make plays, they were put in the position to win and they just didn't make plays. Although. The offensive playcalling left a lot to be desired. It was extremely conservative. And everyone is dumping on the team and Marvin so much today, but the fans didn't do their part in supporting this team. I've been to the Texans games in Houston against the Bengals and to the Titans game last year in Nashville, and this was by FAR the quietest home field I've heard. There was no energy from the fans what so ever! Maybe it's the way the stadium is built so it doesn't hold the sound in, but we as Bengals fans were quite reserved.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillybengal Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 You can argue both ways. I think he should have gone for it. Especially with the FG being over 40 yards. if it was a chip shot <30 or something, I could get behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='phillybengal' timestamp='1349702146' post='1167942'] You can argue both ways. I think he should have gone for it. Especially with the FG being over 40 yards. if it was a chip shot <30 or something, I could get behind it. [/quote] x2. I think you can argue it either way, but I don't think either decision would have been a "horrible decision". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='cincity' timestamp='1349700841' post='1167936'] No.. I agree with the decision to take the points, [/quote] oh yea, I know. I couldn't find the proper way to make the point about the defense while acknowledging that it wasn't that you were saying otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantNGo Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 I was going to point out the same chart, but actually I think you read it wrong. The correct situation should be -5 since that's the deficit after the touchdown (not including the PAT). At -5 and 15:00, you should attempt the 2-pt conversion if probability is greater than 25%. The website says in the second paragraph: "The rows are labeled by the lead after scoring a touchdown, but prior to the attempt at an extra point or points." As a sanity check, notice that the probability for -2 and -5 are much lower than the others, indicating that it's advantageous to go for 2 in these cases, so I'm pretty sure you read it as the score after the TD but before the PAT. [quote name='AmishBengalFan' timestamp='1349661254' post='1167824'] Linky: [url="http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm"]http://www.footballc.../twoptchart.htm[/url] According to the Go-For-Two chart on this page, after scoring a TD to trim your deficit to 4 points (find "-4" in the first column) with 14:15 left in the game (call it 15:00) you should attempt the 2-point conversion if your probability of making it exceeds 61% (0.61). Most NFL teams make their 2-point conversions approximately 40% of the time. Kicking the XP at that point in the game was, mathematically, the correct call.... by a very large margin. [/quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantNGo Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 You go for 1 rather than 2 only if you believe that scenario A is more probable than scenario B. Scenario A: Kick PAT, 17-13. Miami gets a FG, 20-13. Cincy gets a TD, 20-20. Scenario B: Go for two and make it, 17-14. Cincy gets a FG, 17-17. If there was the entire second half left to play, scenario A is much more likely than scenario B because there are so many possessions left in the game. With 14 minutes left, each side gets 1 more possession for sure and maybe a second, so scenario A (1 FG + 1 TD on 2-4 possessions) becomes less probable. Also, with the way the Cincy offense was playing, do you think the probability Cincy gets a touchdown is higher than the probability of a 2-point conversion and a FG? [quote name='fredtoast' timestamp='1349664432' post='1167848'] Would you have gone for two in that situation if it was in the first half? If not then explain why we should have done it with over 14 minutes left. It was WAAAAAY to early to get desperate. [/quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='SlantNGo' timestamp='1349705813' post='1167972'] You go for 1 rather than 2 only if you believe that scenario A is more probable than scenario B. Scenario A: Kick PAT, 17-13. Miami gets a FG, 20-13. Cincy gets a TD, 20-20. Scenario B: Go for two and make it, 17-14. Cincy gets a FG, 17-17. If there was the entire second half left to play, scenario A is much more likely than scenario B because there are so many possessions left in the game. With 14 minutes left, each side gets 1 more possession for sure and maybe a second, so scenario A (1 FG + 1 TD on 2-4 possessions) becomes less probable. Also, with the way the Cincy offense was playing, do you think the probability Cincy gets a touchdown is higher than the probability of a 2-point conversion and a FG? [/quote] there's also Scenario C. Scenario C: Go for two, don't make it. Down 17-12. Miami scores a FG and its 20-12 and the Bengals need a TD AND a 2pt conversion. or Scenario D: Go for two, on't make it. Down 17-12. Bengals score a TD and either go up 19-17 or have to go for 2 again to get a 3pt lead. Miami kicks a game winning FG, wins 20-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|High School Harry| Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1349706604' post='1167975'] there's also Scenario C. Scenario C: Go for two, don't make it. Down 17-12. Miami scores a FG and its 20-12 and the Bengals need a TD AND a 2pt conversion. or Scenario D: Go for two, on't make it. Down 17-12. Bengals score a TD and either go up 19-17 or have to go for 2 again to get a 3pt lead. Miami kicks a game winning FG, wins 20-19. [/quote] Not being argumentative, etc. but the bare bones of what I am thinking... Go for the two point conversion... Make it: down by a field goal to tie Miss it: need a touchdown to go ahead Kick the point... Need a touchdown to go ahead. Same as if they had not made the two point conversion. So what's to lose by going for it? Miss it and you are no worse off than with extra point. Miss on the two pointer or make the extra point, a touchdown is still needed. Make it and the game is within three points for a tie. I am thinking that being within three is a better and more doable situation for the Bengals. Forget statistics, forget what the Dolphins are going to do, it puts the Bengals more in control of their own destiny. Right now sitting in the stands I am getting the ugly feeling in the pit of my stomach that I am watching the game HOPING something will happen ("if only we can get a turnover") rather than doing things ourselves to win the game or at least put us in a better position of winning. Whatever ... we came out if it with no major injuries that I know of and that is a victory for us in itself and especially after seeing what happened to other teams around the league yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='High School Harry' timestamp='1349707591' post='1167977'] Not being argumentative, etc. but the bare bones of what I am thinking... Go for the two point conversion... Make it: down by a field goal to tie Miss it: need a touchdown to go ahead Kick the point... Need a touchdown to go ahead. Same as if they had not made the two point conversion. So what's to lose by going for it? Miss it and you are no worse off than with extra point. Miss on the two pointer or make the extra point, a touchdown is still needed. Make it and the game is within three points for a tie. I am thinking that being within three is a better and more doable situation for the Bengals. Forget statistics, forget what the Dolphins are going to do, it puts the Bengals more in control of their own destiny. Right now sitting in the stands I am getting the ugly feeling in the pit of my stomach that I am watching the game HOPING something will happen ("if only we can get a turnover") rather than doing things ourselves to win the game or at least put us in a better position of winning. Whatever ... we came out if it with no major injuries that I know of and that is a victory for us in itself and especially after seeing what happened to other teams around the league yesterday. [/quote] I just think you gotta believe that its not gonna be the last time your team scores, especially when your defense was playing well and your offense has been a pretty good 4th quarter unit. Plus, at that point you knew you couldn't run on the Dolphins, so that limits your play selection on the 2pt conversion. I think you can come down on either side of the discussion, and neither side is going to be definitively right or wrong. If the offense takes care of its business though, we're never even having this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooky Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='sneaky' timestamp='1349641644' post='1167623'] Lewis fucked up. With 3:00 left he should have went for it on 4th and 5. Even if they couldn't convert, Miami wouldve had the ball on their 30. [/quote] I had no problem with the call. If Nugent made the FG, they kick off, hope for a defensive stop, then get in FG range again. That gives them a better chance to win than going for it, not making it, hope for a defensive stop and needing a TD drive. IMHO, his only mistake was thinking that Nugent would make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted October 8, 2012 Report Share Posted October 8, 2012 [quote name='Hooky' timestamp='1349708394' post='1167981'] I had no problem with the call. If Nugent made the FG, they kick off, hope for a defensive stop, then get in FG range again. That gives them a better chance to win than going for it, not making it, hope for a defensive stop and needing a TD drive. [b]IMHO, his only mistake was thinking that Nugent would make it.[/b] [/quote] if you can't trust your kicker to make a 41yder, then the team has big issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.