Draft Notes

[ChicagoBengal]

If they're looking to leverage Dalton, you'll see a Burfict signing by Wednesday night with some possible talk of new AJ negotiations. I honestly don't think that's the case here. Unless Dalton completely shits the bed this year, he's going to get a nice payday next offseason somewhere, so I don't see his camp biting on anything that THEY think is reasonable (which probably is unreasonable if they're looking for even Flacco money).
If Bridgewater falls (and I don't think he makes it out of the top 15) and he's their BPA, he'll be the pick.

[|Tigers Johnson|]

If Bridgewater was there... I wouldn't be upset if they took him...

[Inigo Montoya]

Maybe the statements that Andy is their guy were the smokescreen and this is the real stuff...
 
I don't actually believe that. I think they are just doing their due diligence on everybody and trying to stick to their board. I suspect they have Bridgewater ranked as a top 10 overall guy. But they probably have some other guys who could potentially fall to 24 ranked similarly. The question becomes, what happens if your top 18 guys are all gone except Bridgewater (who you have ranked 8th let's say), then what do you do? Go with your 19th ranked guy at a different position or go with the QB who you really like?
 
Very tough call and I'm not sure what the answer is. But I am glad the Bengals are at least having serious discussions about it. If that scenario plays out, the decision they make will be a potentially make or break one for the franchise going forward.

I am skeptical that we take Bridgewater if he falls in the first round as well, but crazier things have happened. Getting it right at QB is the most important decision a franchise can make and it is possible the Bengals view Bridgewater as having a value they can't pass up. That being said, it's more likely this is being floated as typical pre-draft speculation to gain leverage either in negotiating with Dalton or to drum up a trade market for Teddy. It's hard to believe anything you hear this time of year.

IMO, Bridgewater is getting shit on pretty unfairly due to his poor pro day performance. I think he posseses a number of traits that could translate to success in the NFL and he proved himself repeatedly on the field, which should matter the most.

[dex]

Bridgewater may have had the worst pro day of all time. How could one horrible performance in shorts make scouts question everything he did in football games? And that's what happened here. Guys like Mayock have admitted going back post-pro day to look at game field and suddenly finding fault in situations where they didn't before. Has this ever happened for a draft prospect before to this degree? I've never heard of anything quite like it.

[texbengal]

Bridgewater may have had the worst pro day of all time. How could one horrible performance in shorts make scouts question everything he did in football games? And that's what happened here. Guys like Mayock have admitted going back post-pro day to look at game field and suddenly finding fault in situations where they didn't before. Has this ever happened for a draft prospect before to this degree? I've never heard of anything quite like it.

I think it happens (to varying degrees) every year but keep in mind, who is it that says guys are slipping... Is it teams, or talking heads? I like Mayock and all, but is his opinion reflective of how teams feel, or is it his own? Daniel Jeremiah was a former scout and he has him as his number 1 QB. I've seen other talking heads who feel the same. Maybe Bridgewater wasn't ever viewed by teams as a high first round guy. Or maybe he is, and because he didn't reportedly "practice" his pro day for as long as some others, they were out of synch. Or maybe he just shit the bed that day. That happens. Remember Andre Smith... Had a lot of good tape but after his Pro Day, there was some buzz that he was a late first rounder, or later.

There is so much subterfuge this time of year, who knows what to believe. Bottom line, it's the tape, especially, and the personal interviews and background checks that matter the most. Bridgewater has a strong body of work, and reportedly has a high football IQ and good intangibles. OTOH, some say his build isn't ideal (same w Manziel) to take a pounding of an NFL season, and he doesn't have a great arm.

Whether that makes him a number 1 pick or a 2nd round guy, time wil tell. Personally, I like his game, and if the Bengals feel he's the best guy on the board when they pick, and upgrades what they have and they pull the trigger, fine. It will say a lot about how they feel about Dalton, too, and even if Dalton works out long-term, I'm sure Bridgewater would have some trade value. Hell, Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb did.

All of that said, I don't see Bridgewater coming here, and I'm guessing that some other players that they have highly rated will drop to them at 24. We will kmow soon enough.

[happyrid]

I think it happens (to varying degrees) every year but keep in mind, who is it that says guys are slipping... Is it teams, or talking heads? I like Mayock and all, but is his opinion reflective of how teams feel, or is it his own? Daniel Jeremiah was a former scout and he has him as his number 1 QB. I've seen other talking heads who feel the same. Maybe Bridgewater wasn't ever viewed by teams as a high first round guy. Or maybe he is, and because he didn't reportedly "practice" his pro day for as long as some others, they were out of synch. Or maybe he just shit the bed that day. That happens. Remember Andre Smith... Had a lot of good tape but after his Pro Day, there was some buzz that he was a late first rounder, or later.

There is so much subterfuge this time of year, who knows what to believe. Bottom line, it's the tape, especially, and the personal interviews and background checks that matter the most. Bridgewater has a strong body of work, and reportedly has a high football IQ and good intangibles. OTOH, some say his build isn't ideal (same w Manziel) to take a pounding of an NFL season, and he doesn't have a great arm.

Whether that makes him a number 1 pick or a 2nd round guy, time wil tell. Personally, I like his game, and if the Bengals feel he's the best guy on the board when they pick, and upgrades what they have and they pull the trigger, fine. It will say a lot about how they feel about Dalton, too, and even if Dalton works out long-term, I'm sure Bridgewater would have some trade value. Hell, Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb did.

All of that said, I don't see Bridgewater coming here, and I'm guessing that some other players that they have highly rated will drop to them at 24. We will kmow soon enough.

 

Jeremiah has also said that he's talked to all of his contacts and nobody thinks he is going in the first half of the first round. So while he personally likes him, he does seem pretty convinced he isn't going to be the first QB off the board.

 

Bridgewater is one of the weirdest cases I've seen. Nearly every draft analyst online, television, amateurs, etc. love him. That includes a lot of guys like Jeremiah who have actually been NFL scouts and know what they are talking about. But then everything you hear is that teams aren't really sold on him. I see both sides. If you just watch him, he makes plays. He is a great kid by all accounts. However, scouts have a lot of other stuff they look at. Hand size. Throwing motion. Velocity on throws. Frame. And they track which of those things tend to lead to success in the NFL and which of those things lead to a QB flaming out and/or struggling with injuries. I suspect he is falling short in a lot of those areas. Combine that with his poor pro day and reports that he has also struggled in private workouts for individual teams and that's probably where the fall is coming from. 

 

While I agree there is a lot of subterfuge at this time of year, there are also 15 or 20 teams that aren't even thinking about drafting a QB. Their scouts can be pretty honest in their opinions about Bridgewater. If anything, they would be pumping him up, hoping he goes early so the other guys fall to them. But you aren't really hearing that from those scouts either. 

 

In short, I absolutely buy that he is falling. It's just a question of how far. Is he falling to the 20s or completely out of the first round? 

[Oldcat]

Bridgewater may have had the worst pro day of all time. How could one horrible performance in shorts make scouts question everything he did in football games? And that's what happened here. Guys like Mayock have admitted going back post-pro day to look at game field and suddenly finding fault in situations where they didn't before. Has this ever happened for a draft prospect before to this degree? I've never heard of anything quite like it.

 

More often, it happens in reverse.  A good number at the combine and suddenly he's a hall of famer.  Someone bites early and gets a disappointment.

[Oldcat]

I am skeptical that we take Bridgewater if he falls in the first round as well, but crazier things have happened. Getting it right at QB is the most important decision a franchise can make and it is possible the Bengals view Bridgewater as having a value they can't pass up. That being said, it's more likely this is being floated as typical pre-draft speculation to gain leverage either in negotiating with Dalton or to drum up a trade market for Teddy. It's hard to believe anything you hear this time of year.

IMO, Bridgewater is getting shit on pretty unfairly due to his poor pro day performance. I think he posseses a number of traits that could translate to success in the NFL and he proved himself repeatedly on the field, which should matter the most.

 

If you are a conspiracy guy, you might think Bridgewater tanked the pro day to get a shot at the good teams late in Round 1.

[Zins30]

Geno Smith was the consensus #1 guy last year for about the same time periods too and he fell pretty far. I don't think Teddy will fall that far but it could happen...

[Zins30]

@RapSheet: Chronic scaphoid fracture RT @JeneBramel: Source confirmed what @RapSheet reported: Tre Mason has fractured scaphoid, had not fully healed

[Squirrlnutz]

So CLE would rather ride Brian Hoyer than draft Teddy. JAX is sticking with Henne, MIN prefers Cassie and Ponder to Bridgewater. HOU, OAK, STL, TEN are all so comfortable with their wildly successful QB personnel that they pass on Bridgewater as well...

But we, who have gotten better three years in a row and have been an impact play or player away from postseason success, are going to jump on this qb so that he can hold onto a clipboard all year?

Not a fucking chance. I fully expect a player they believe will have a hand in getting us over the hump in 2014. Beyond the first round they will look towards 2015 and depth.

[dex]

So CLE would rather ride Brian Hoyer than draft Teddy. JAX is sticking with Henne, MIN prefers Cassie and Ponder to Bridgewater. HOU, OAK, STL, TEN are all so comfortable with their wildly successful QB personnel that they pass on Bridgewater as well...

But we, who have gotten better three years in a row and have been an impact play or player away from postseason success, are going to jump on this qb so that he can hold onto a clipboard all year?

Not a fucking chance. I fully expect a player they believe will have a hand in getting us over the hump in 2014. Beyond the first round they will look towards 2015 and depth.

It's not just about 2014, but also the years beyond. At the moment both Dalton and Campbell only have one more year left on their Bengals contracts, and QB is by far the most important position on a football team. So QBs should get placed on the Bengals big board somewhere, along with O-lineman and secondary guys and all the rest. No position should automatically be excluded from their big board.

[Squirrlnutz]

It's not just about 2014, but also the years beyond. At the moment both Dalton and Campbell only have one more year left on their Bengals contracts, and QB is by far the most important position on a football team. So QBs should get placed on the Bengals big board somewhere, along with O-lineman and secondary guys and all the rest. No position should automatically be excluded from their big board.

Disagree, I think the round one pick will be at a position they expect to contribute on the field by mid season at the latest. I don't believe a team that is looking to get over the post season hump hedges their bets at the QB spot by taking a guy in round one. IMO If we take a round one qb he is 100% the 2015 starter or its 100% the wrong decision.

[Bengals1181]

Disagree, I think the round one pick will be at a position they expect to contribute on the field by mid season at the latest. I don't believe a team that is looking to get over the post season hump hedges their bets at the QB spot by taking a guy in round one. IMO If we take a round one qb he is 100% the 2015 starter or its 100% the wrong decision.

 

 

history tells you that outside of Carson, the Marvin led Bengals expect their first rounder to contribute their rookie year.

[dex]

Disagree, I think the round one pick will be at a position they expect to contribute on the field by mid season at the latest. I don't believe a team that is looking to get over the post season hump hedges their bets at the QB spot by taking a guy in round one. IMO If we take a round one qb he is 100% the 2015 starter or its 100% the wrong decision.

But we aren't talking about a top ten overall pick here, we only have the 24th selection. And every guy they could draft comes with a certain amount of risk and concern. I certainly don't think they will be in a place where they select any player at any position who would 100% be a starter in 2015, so why a QB draftee be held to such an impossibly high standard?I just think you should take the BPA with the 24th pick, regardless of position. I wouldn't even be opposed to a WR if the right one fell into their laps. I know  Marvin earlier said they would definitely not select a WR or a QB in the first round, but I think saying that was a mistake. Assuming he was speaking honestly, that attitude limits your possible options and makes it easier for other teams to read your draft strategy. The only way I would support that Marvin draft statement is if he was lying through his teeth to gain a competitive advantage against other teams trying to anticipate what the Bengals might(or might not) do with the pick.

[coup000]

Disagree, I think the round one pick will be at a position they expect to contribute on the field by mid season at the latest. I don't believe a team that is looking to get over the post season hump hedges their bets at the QB spot by taking a guy in round one. IMO If we take a round one qb he is 100% the 2015 starter or its 100% the wrong decision.

What position is that? Without assuming injuries, the only place I could really see any rookie playing many snaps is maybe a T/G getting snaps at LG if Boling isn't ready. A power back might get some snaps if this is year the Bengals realize BJGE is broken down, but that guy wouldn't get taken in the first round anyways. An OLB could get some snaps but with Lamur coming back I think they've earmarked a huge increase in snaps for him. Everyone is mocking a DE or CB to us but those guys likely wouldn't play much this year. Unless they get a huge steal at the 24th pick, that guy probably won't contribute much this year regardless. 

[alleycat]

But we aren't talking about a top ten overall pick here, we only have the 24th selection. And every guy they could draft comes with a certain amount of risk and concern. I certainly don't think they will be in a place where they select any player at any position who would 100% be a starter in 2015, so why a QB draftee be held to such an impossibly high standard?I just think you should take the BPA with the 24th pick, regardless of position. I wouldn't even be opposed to a WR if the right one fell into their laps. I know  Marvin earlier said they would definitely not select a WR or a QB in the first round, but I think saying that was a mistake. Assuming he was speaking honestly, that attitude limits your possible options and makes it easier for other teams to read your draft strategy. The only way I would support that Marvin draft statement is if he was lying through his teeth to gain a competitive advantage against other teams trying to anticipate what the Bengals might(or might not) do with the pick.

 

It's easy. QB prospects stink this year. They are rarely if ever a sure thing, but that seems even more the case now. That's why you don't waste a high pick on one.  And if you accept the notion that was recently broadcast by Bears' GM Phil Emery, that there is really no such thing as a developmental QB (he calls the 2012 third rounders as blips and would presumably call Tom Brady the statistical outlier he is (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/04/phil-emery-developing-late-round-quarterbacks-doesnt-work/), then a late round pick on a developmental QB is also a waste.

 

Someone said it on here earlier: Go big or go home with the QB position.  But when none of the QB prospects are any more appealing than the guy who's led us to three straight playoff appearances (while throwing for the third most TD's in his first three years in NFL history), you don't even bother.  Marvin wants to roll with Dalton because he knows that gives him his best and most realistic chance to get to the Superbowl (or perform to a standard to keep keeping his job) in the near future.

[Squirrlnutz]

What position is that? Without assuming injuries, the only place I could really see any rookie playing many snaps is maybe a T/G getting snaps at LG if Boling isn't ready. A power back might get some snaps if this is year the Bengals realize BJGE is broken down, but that guy wouldn't get taken in the first round anyways. An OLB could get some snaps but with Lamur coming back I think they've earmarked a huge increase in snaps for him. Everyone is mocking a DE or CB to us but those guys likely wouldn't play much this year. Unless they get a huge steal at the 24th pick, that guy probably won't contribute much this year regardless. 

At pretty much every single position except QB a rookie can be rotated in with sub packages. I would think ML wants his first rounder to improve his chances of winning a playoff game this year...if again we don't, he may not be around in 2015, got to think he knows that.

[dex]

 

It's easy. QB prospects stink this year. They are rarely if ever a sure thing, but that seems even more the case now. That's why you don't waste a high pick on one.  And if you accept the notion that was recently broadcast by Bears' GM Phil Emery, that there is really no such thing as a developmental QB (he calls the 2012 third rounders as blips and would presumably call Tom Brady the statistical outlier he is (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/04/phil-emery-developing-late-round-quarterbacks-doesnt-work/), then a late round pick on a developmental QB is also a waste.

 

Someone said it on here earlier: Go big or go home with the QB position.  But when none of the QB prospects are any more appealing than the guy who's led us to three straight playoff appearances (while throwing for the third most TD's in his first three years in NFL history), you don't even bother.  Marvin wants to roll with Dalton because he knows that gives him his best and most realistic chance to get to the Superbowl (or perform to a standard to keep keeping his job) in the near future.

I think the QB is actually deeper this year than last, even if there are no true franchise QBs in the group. We all know the Bengals are looking to select a QB at some point in the draft, we(and the front office) just don't know in what round yet. I think you just let the draft fallout itself determine at what point the Bengals take a QB, a RB, a O-lineman, a DE, a secondary guy. Why limit yourself and the possibilities before guys actually start going off the board? That's self-defeating imo.

[coup000]

At pretty much every single position except QB a rookie can be rotated in with sub packages. I would think ML wants his first rounder to improve his chances of winning a playoff game this year...if again we don't, he may not be around in 2015, got to think he knows that.

Drafting for only the current year is not very smart. And not something I would expect the other decision makers would allow Marvin to do. If Bridgewater or Bortles or whoever is there and they have him ranked highly enough, I'm betting they'll take him. As they should.

[SocalBengalEd]

history tells you that outside of Carson, the Marvin led Bengals expect their first rounder to contribute their rookie year.

Except for Dre Kirkpatrick.

[|SF2|]

So CLE would rather ride Brian Hoyer than draft Teddy. JAX is sticking with Henne, MIN prefers Cassie and Ponder to Bridgewater. HOU, OAK, STL, TEN are all so comfortable with their wildly successful QB personnel that they pass on Bridgewater as well...

But we, who have gotten better three years in a row and have been an impact play or player away from postseason success, are going to jump on this qb so that he can hold onto a clipboard all year?

Not a fucking chance. I fully expect a player they believe will have a hand in getting us over the hump in 2014. Beyond the first round they will look towards 2015 and depth.

I can see Minn sticking with Cassel and giving Ponder 1 more year to get his act together. The rest of your post is pretty spot on.

[happyrid]

My personal best case scenario at this point would probably be to trade down to the top of the 2nd and pick up a few extra picks. To that end:

 

Derek Carr says teams tell him they’d like to pick him in the 20s

Posted by Michael David Smith on May 4, 2014, 7:47 PM EDT

AP

Former Fresno State quarterback Derek Carrsays teams are telling him they’d like to draft him somewhere with a pick in the 20s on Thursday night.

One team with a pick in the 20s in this year’s draft, Cleveland at No. 26, is reportedly interested in Carr. But the team that picks Carr might be a team that trades into the pick: According to John Clayton of ESPN, Carr saysfour or five teams have told him they would like to trade into the 20s to draft him.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see a team with a high second-round pick trade up into the 20s to take Carr there. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement makes drafting a player in the late first round preferable to the early second round in one key respect: First-round picks have fifth-year options on their contracts, whereas second-round picks become free agents after four years. That means that if Carr develops into a franchise quarterback, the team that drafts him gets an extra year before having to break the bank to lock him up with a long-term extension. (WithColin Kaepernick wanting $18 million a year or more on his next deal, San Francisco may wish it had traded up and taken him late in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft, instead of trading up to take him early in the second, so that it would have a fifth-year option on his rookie deal.)

Carr’s stock seems to be rising as the draft approaches, and there’s now a lot of talk that he’ll be drafted higher than former Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. There’s a good chance that after Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles, Carr will be the third quarterback off the board, perhaps in the late first round.

[happyrid]

Should add, I'd like to trade down only if somebody the team loves doesn't fall to 24, so it depends on the first 23 picks.

 

But if things go how most of the mocks that I've seen have things going, then I really like the idea of trading down instead of reaching at CB/LT or drafting random BPA at a position where there's not much of a need (like WR).

 

It gives us the opportunity to address another position or 2 with early picks. I'd love to see an OT, RB, CB, DL and QB all in the first 3 or 4 rounds. 

[Bengals1181]

Except for Dre Kirkpatrick.

Except for Dre Kirkpatrick.

Not true at all. Hall was coming off an Achilles injury, Jones off a serious neck injury, and Newman was signed late and they didn't know what he had left. Some fans didn't even think he'd make the team out of camp.

Corner was a major need and question mark entering the 2012 draft. Everyone knew they were taking one high.

Things worked out in the end with the other three, but they drafted him expecting to need him to play early.