RB Offseason 2024

[alleycat]

AAAAANnnnndd....I just went to look up Deebo Samuel's combine, and it was nearly identical to Tracy's. Both ran a 4.48. Deebo has the faster 10 yard split but Tracy beats him on all other numbers. I think Tracy might actually go in the top 75.

[sparky151]

15 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Reading back through this thread, it seems that no one is very happy about the moves the Bengals made at RB.  Plenty of people were done with Mixon and wanted him gone for a while now.  Yet I’m not seeing much celebration that they got their wish.  I’m assuming that’s mainly because they don’t know or like Moss (already) and/or wanted a bigger name in free agency.  The same goes for the smaller group who supported Joe and we’re OK with keeping him.  They’re not pleased at the change and see it as a downgrade.  
 

My take is the Bengals wanted to get younger and cheaper at the position.  Moss is both of those things compared to Mixon.  He flashed early last year for Indy in place of Jonathan Taylor after being traded from Buffalo.  That’s not much to go on, but it’s something.  

 

Eh, I'm happy. We got rid of Mixon. We re-signed Williams, and added Moss. I'd have preferred Gus Edwards but Moss will do. We can draft a RB if the value is there or ignore the position. A committee of Moss and Brown looks promising, especially considering we don't run it very much. 

[|BlackJesus|]

* I still want CEH as well.  💛 💜

[texbengal]

6 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

 

Eh, I'm happy. We got rid of Mixon. We re-signed Williams, and added Moss. I'd have preferred Gus Edwards but Moss will do. We can draft a RB if the value is there or ignore the position. A committee of Moss and Brown looks promising, especially considering we don't run it very much. 

Me too. Moss is no stiff, especially when it comes to running the football and pass pro. He’s not a consolation prize.
 

Reportedly a number of teams were interested in him and what he showed last year in Indy opened a lot of eyes. He’s a high-character, team guy and while losing a guy like Mixon is a blow, I think people are gonna really like what he brings. 

[Le Tigre]

16 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

My take is the Bengals wanted to get younger and cheaper at the position.  Moss is both of those things compared to Mixon.

Money maybe. But a 14-month difference in age is hardly that much “younger” 

[sparky151]

Moss is lower mileage with many fewer career carries than Mixon. 

[|SF2|]

48 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Moss is lower mileage with many fewer career carries than Mixon. 

Agreed.  Carries per season will tell you a running back’s real NFL age.  It is why McCaffrey and Henry have red flags as far as I am concerned. Mixon is right up there. 
 

I bet Amish could create a formula that makes sense. 
 

Actual Age + ( total carries/365) + (knee ligament injuries * 2) + (# lower leg injuries) = NFL age. 
 

Mixon at start of 2024

 

28 + ((1571/365)+ 0 + 1 = 33.3 NFL age. 
 

Henry

 

30 + (2030/365) + 0 + 1 = 36.6. 

 

 

[Inigo Montoya]

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

Moss is lower mileage with many fewer career carries than Mixon. 

Yeah it’s not just age but wear and tear.  Mixon has 7 seasons with 1,854 combined carries/receptions while Moss has 5 seasons with 559.  Not even close in terms of mileage.

[I_C_Deadpeople]

Need to also add college carries, those vary greatly by player as well.

[Le Tigre]

[MichaelWeston]

2 hours ago, SF2 said:

Agreed.  Carries per season will tell you a running back’s real NFL age.  It is why McCaffrey and Henry have red flags as far as I am concerned. Mixon is right up there. 
 

I bet Amish could create a formula that makes sense. 
 

Actual Age + ( total carries/365) + (knee ligament injuries * 2) + (# lower leg injuries) = NFL age. 
 

Mixon at start of 2024

 

28 + ((1571/365)+ 0 + 1 = 33.3 NFL age. 
 

Henry

 

30 + (2030/365) + 0 + 1 = 36.6. 

This is genius. Probably could be tweaked a little but it's an easy way to make a threshold where you then stay away from a RB. Anyone with like a 30 or above you stay away from or something. 

 

Tally JK Dobbins. 

[MichaelWeston]

2 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

This is genius. Probably could be tweaked a little but it's an easy way to make a threshold where you then stay away from a RB. Anyone with like a 30 or above you stay away from or something. 

 

Tally JK Dobbins. 

If you do decided to jump into this I would suggest including college carries and injuries as well as catches and kick and punt returns. Think out loud in here I think we'd be happy to help. 

[MichaelWeston]

Also it needs to be called a RBs SF2 age

[|SF2|]

3 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

Also it needs to be called a RBs SF2 age

LOL, it was a quick stab at it.  I guarantee some of these analytics guys have something similar and better.  I can only think of a few guys who ever broke the mold.  Adrian Peterson the most prolific in my opinion.  I know guys like Emmitt Smith had more yards but Peterson was literally still great in his 30s.  

[Inigo Montoya]

1 hour ago, SF2 said:

LOL, it was a quick stab at it.  I guarantee some of these analytics guys have something similar and better.  I can only think of a few guys who ever broke the mold.  Adrian Peterson the most prolific in my opinion.  I know guys like Emmitt Smith had more yards but Peterson was literally still great in his 30s.  

Curtis Martin and Bettis are two more that broke the mold.  The injury factor is a big one for longevity.  I also agree about college numbers.  Bottom line, there’s a reason teams have changed their approach to the RB position.  Analytics can be a helpful tool but there are exceptions.

[|SF2|]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Curtis Martin and Bettis are two more that broke the mold.  The injury factor is a big one for longevity.  I also agree about college numbers.  Bottom line, there’s a reason teams have changed their approach to the RB position.  Analytics can be a helpful tool but there are exceptions.

Martin is perhaps the most overlooked RB in history. Bettis was simply a human wrecking ball for a LONG time.  Nothing flashy, just “Here I come bitches”.  4 to 8 yards, nothing more or less.  Every coach would love to have a Bettis. 

[MichaelWeston]

28 is usually the number. I will be betting against Mixon getting 1000 yards next season. 

[|High School Harry|]

56 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

28 is usually the number. I will be betting against Mixon getting 1000 yards next season. 

If he doesn't start waiving a gun around and some Texan shoot his ass off.

[|SF2|]

I think I would need to factor in carries/ touches per season on an annual basis.   Use some fancy exponential shit once you go above 250 or so.   Consecutive seasons over 250 would add an additional wear factor.    

Earl Campbell rushed over 300 times a season his first 4 years.  He was never the same after it. 
 

I agree, egregious use in college needs to be factored in. 
 

Let me work on it.  

[Le Tigre]

If it’s all about “carries” wearing down an RB…somebody tackles him (and a lot of other Jim’s). Compare longevities of LB’s or secondary? 
 

For that matter, linemen—on both sides of the ball. They collide with other bodies on each play? 
 

Endless. 

[sparky151]

Ricky Watters and Marcus Allen were also good players late in their careers.

 

[|SF2|]

1 hour ago, Le Tigre said:

If it’s all about “carries” wearing down an RB…somebody tackles him (and a lot of other Jim’s). Compare longevities of LB’s or secondary? 
 

For that matter, linemen—on both sides of the ball. They collide with other bodies on each play? 
 

Endless. 

As far as lineman go, they don’t really get a running start and they are typically matched up with someone their own size or smaller. They don’t get tackled to the ground much either. 
 

Linebacker is a whole different animal.  A lot of big collisions, contact on every play, getting run blocked by guys sometimes 60 to 100 lbs heavier.   Having to tackle running backs at speed. Yeah, that would be a good project as well.  
 

 

[|SF2|]

13 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Ricky Watters and Marcus Allen were also good players late in their careers.

 

Allen  never rushed for more than 223 times his last 12 seasons.  Averaged about 175 attempts those last 12 years.  Caught a lot of passes for that era. 
 

Waters was done by age 30/31  from overuse. 

 

[|High School Harry|]

12 hours ago, SF2 said:

I think I would need to factor in carries/ touches per season on an annual basis.   Use some fancy exponential shit once you go above 250 or so.   Consecutive seasons over 250 would add an additional wear factor.    

Earl Campbell rushed over 300 times a season his first 4 years.  He was never the same after it. 
 

I agree, egregious use in college needs to be factored in. 
 

Let me work on it.  

With Mixon you also have to factor in all the wear and tear

or running into a lineman and falling on his ass two lines short

of the line of scrimmage on 3rd and 2.

 

 

[Jamie_B]

Frank Gore was 33 when he hit 1025 yards in 2016, the final few years of his career he was more of a share time guy but it can be done, it's rare, but it's possible.

 

Those rooting against Mixon to not get 1000 yards are kind of sad. He isn't going to be playing against us next year unless it's in the playoffs. It seems kind of personal for some of you.