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22 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

I did a little exercise that I think is cool. 

 

1. Assume that the team thinks it already has all of it's starters for 2022. They are fine with Hill-Apple and Carman.....which they could be. 

2. The below is the layout of holes to fill based on free agents for 2023 and then 2024.

3. It's pretty fascinating. Remember the holes compound so 2023 would go to 2024. Depth obviously matters but starters matter more. 

2023 Holes in Orange: TE,  MLB, S, CB

2024 Holes in Blue: WR, LT, NT, OLB, CB

4. This ignores futures contracts for guys who won't return and treats all of them, RFAs and EFAs as if they are re-signing. Frankly I just didn't want to do the work their because they don't matter much

5. After 2 years only 4 starters remain on the D but 7 of the 11 on offense. 

 

QB Burrow 25   Browning      
RB Mixon 25 Evans 25     Holyfield  
WR Chase 26   Irwin 23      
WR Higgins 24 Morgan 24        
WR Boyd 24   Williams      
TE     Wilcox 23 Moss Washington Eubanks 23
LT Williams 24 Smith 25        
LG Carman 25          
C Karras 25 Hill 25        
RG Cappa 26 Adeniji 24 Gaillard      
RT Collins 25 Prince 24        
             
K McPherson 25          
P Chrisman          
LS            
             
LE Hubbard 26 Sample 25 Hubert 25      
LT Reader 24 Tupou 24 Shelvin 25      
RT Hill 25          
RE Hendrickson 25 Kareem 24 Ossai 25 Spence    
WLB Wilson 24 Bailey 24 Johnston 23      
MLB   Bachie 23        
SLB Davis-Gaither 24 Jones 23        
S            
S     Henderson      
CB Awuzie 24          
CB   Brannon        
CB Hilton 25 Davis 23        

 

QB Burrow 25   Browning      
RB Mixon 25 Evans 25     Holyfield  
WR Chase 26   Irwin 23      
WR            
WR     Williams      
TE     Wilcox 23 Moss Washington Eubanks 23
LT   Smith 25        
LG Carman 25          
C Karras 25 Hill 25        
RG Cappa 26   Gaillard      
RT Collins 25          
             
K McPherson 25          
P Chrisman          
LS            
             
LE Hubbard 26 Sample 25 Hubert 25      
LT     Shelvin 25      
RT Hill 25          
RE Hendrickson 25   Ossai 25 Spence    
WLB     Johnston 23      
MLB   Bachie 23        
SLB   Jones 23        
S            
S     Henderson      
CB            
CB   Brannon        
CB Hilton 25 Davis 23        

I appreciate the graphs you deliver..

Great job my friend..

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2 hours ago, claptonrocks said:

Good assesment...

 

 

We're in a position that other than Left Guard every other start on the roster is firmly set. We need to be getting some depth guys that can be future starters if we can't resign guys, and that can take snaps now and if have to fill in if someone goes down. 

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Has there ever been a direct correlation between the players who we bring on a pre-drfat visit and the picking them in the draft?

 

On another note with Bulger's big list out (I subscribe), was thinking of combing through it and picking up on 'team captains'. then see how it plays out drfat weekend since we seem to lean that way. 

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6 minutes ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Has there ever been a direct correlation between the players who we bring on a pre-drfat visit and the picking them in the draft?

 

On another note with Bulger's big list out (I subscribe), was thinking of combing through it and picking up on 'team captains'. then see how it plays out drfat weekend since we seem to lean that way. 

I think so. 1181 does a great job of tracking this on the footballpros board. 

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1 hour ago, membengal said:

Nice stuff, Weston. 

 

Doing it made me realize I bet they think that LG is unsettled but he is on the roster and it might not be on the board at 31. 

 

LB is way more of a need than I had considered as a bunch cycle off. 

 

We could see this change a bit with an extension for Bates and possibly Pratt or Bell. Likely Pratt. Many LBs are going for the 4.5 million range. 

 

If you need to find solutions for these 5 positions what are they?

 

TE: Maybe both players come back but likely a mid rounder

MLB: Pratt or maybe more PT for ADG or Bailey

S2: Bates or an earlier pick than I wanted. Love the idea of a guy playing corner for a year and moving over, hadn't considered at all. 

CB: Early pick

 

Really hard to not see them getting a corner in the first 2 rounds. 

 

Then in 2024 WR, LT, NT, OLB, CB

WR: You draft him this year to be your 4th and then he takes over the slot for Boyd in 2 years....who is that guy?

LT/NT/CB/OLB are four of your best players. Awuzie and Reader will be on their 3rd deals so they may be replaced but I assume Williams is back. That's too tough to replace. Wilson they will want back too. 

OLB: That's Bailey and ADG and Wilson.

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51 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

that rates a big ol'...

 

hi-res-b104ff7b6d5b961dbaf6e6d386e1fbb3_crop_north.jpg.df912dc0bd55dc5f7f1addcb2ee2c50e.thumb.jpg.4320f38e49c6a3205d0bbbefb4b2cfb8.jpg

Andy Dalton Facepalm™ and a Homer Simpson D'Op from me.

(+1)

 


 

LOL

 

On the other hand, Hubbard never had to play against Ohio State.  😎

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5 hours ago, WRAPradio said:

 

Our pass rush was very average last year...and that's with Hendrickson having an all-world year.  We definitely need at least one edge.  Outside of Hendrickson we don't have ONE person that can rush from the edge.  I know people are high on Ossai who played one quarter of the first pre season game, but I wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket.  Even if he turns out to be good, having three good edge players isn't the worst thing in the world at allh.  

This has been on mind my as well.

With the quarterbacks we have to deal with in the AFC now, we need to be able to get pressure in a big way.

I also agree with MichaelWeston about filling in with free agents.

Some good names out there still - maybe older, but great as rotational guys.

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39 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

 

Doing it made me realize I bet they think that LG is unsettled but he is on the roster and it might not be on the board at 31. 

 

LB is way more of a need than I had considered as a bunch cycle off. 

 

We could see this change a bit with an extension for Bates and possibly Pratt or Bell. Likely Pratt. Many LBs are going for the 4.5 million range. 

 

If you need to find solutions for these 5 positions what are they?

 

TE: Maybe both players come back but likely a mid rounder

MLB: Pratt or maybe more PT for ADG or Bailey

S2: Bates or an earlier pick than I wanted. Love the idea of a guy playing corner for a year and moving over, hadn't considered at all. 

CB: Early pick

 

Really hard to not see them getting a corner in the first 2 rounds. 

 

Then in 2024 WR, LT, NT, OLB, CB

WR: You draft him this year to be your 4th and then he takes over the slot for Boyd in 2 years....who is that guy?

LT/NT/CB/OLB are four of your best players. Awuzie and Reader will be on their 3rd deals so they may be replaced but I assume Williams is back. That's too tough to replace. Wilson they will want back too. 

OLB: That's Bailey and ADG and Wilson.

 

 

I like Pratt but Logan Wilson is the LB they need to extend 

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2 hours ago, New Jersey Bengal said:

Agree but I do like Pratt and Davis geathers


Man, our LBs are pretty fucking good huh?

Think how far they’ve come in such a short period of time. Wilson is about to become a superstar…imagine saying that going into last year.   

 

Hopefully it wasn’t all Al Golden lol 🤷‍♂️

 

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22 minutes ago, spicoli said:


Man, our LBs are pretty fucking good huh?

Think how far they’ve come in such a short period of time. Wilson is about to become a superstar…imagine saying that going into last year.   

 

Hopefully it wasn’t all Al Golden lol 🤷‍♂️

 

I was tough on Golden Boy..

 

In reality he had a bad hand to work with but they definately improved (sans a cover guy for lack of) as a unit under him..

 

Wilson and Pratt are ferocious tacklers.

Running backs find a gap and look for daylight then Pratt or Wilson hit them from the side and it shakes them up bigtime..

 

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2 hours ago, spicoli said:


Man, our LBs are pretty fucking good huh?

Think how far they’ve come in such a short period of time. Wilson is about to become a superstar…imagine saying that going into last year.   

 

Hopefully it wasn’t all Al Golden lol 🤷‍♂️

 

The golden fleece that Marvin Lewis searched his whole career for.

It is indeed glorious.

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On 4/7/2022 at 9:41 PM, MichaelWeston said:

One of my worst traits come draft time is my rigidity when it comes to the logic of when we should be willing to consider certain positions. I was adamant last year that WR was an over investment in Round 1 and therefore we should take Sewell. So....with that said, much of this is probably overly rigid but still fun to think about. 

 

My rules for the 2022 draft.

 

QB: Never.

Never ever draft a QB when you have Joe Burrow as your QB. You want your backup to have starts in his belt and a rookie can by definition never have that. 

 

RB: Late to never.

When you have a top end RB like Mixon, you should never draft a RB early. So many late round RBs have succeeded that it makes sense to take a flyer every year late and add talent to the back of the room. I also believe we actually have another RB1 on the roster in Evans. I see starter ability in his play. Both Williams and Perrine are free agents after next year. Mixon's contract isn't up until 2025. 

 

WR: 4-5

Our top 3 WRs are here for the next 2 years at least. Beyond that they return 5 WRs, none of which made an impact last year as a receiver. Taylor actually did a have a 40 catch year as a rookie so it's not out of the question that he could make a bit of an impact in the passing game. As it stands the locks are probably Chase-Boyd-Higgins and Morgan. There is a pretty big need for a 4th WR who can start 5-8 games and be dynamic. The odds are Boyd doesn't get extended in 2 years so bonus points to someone with versatility to play outside but who can eventually start in the slot.  Doubling down at the position won't make sense with the depth we have in Mike Thomas, Irwin and Pooka Williams but I bet we get the cream of the crop in the UDFA market. 

 

TE: 4th and beyond

The position isn't settled but the top 2 for 2022 are probably already here. Hurst and Sample will be adequate at the position but planting the seeds for 2023 and beyond will be essential. I have seen some mocks with a TE in the first 2 rounds. I think that's a mistake because a) there isn't a standout in this class, b) we have our guys for 2022 (and possibly beyond) and c) it usually takes a couple years to for TEs to be ready to contribute. 

 

Interior OL: 1st-5th

We could use a starter at LG or C. We also could use an upgrade at backup C. This will have to be an early pick who can either start immediately or play a role should injuries happen at C. 

 

Tackle: 4th and beyond

For the first time in years Tackle is pretty set. I wouldn't hate an upgrade at depth at the position even though I think Adeniji-Smith and Prince are all ok. 

 

Nose Tackle: Not with this roster

This depth chart might be the deepest on the roster with Reader-Tuapu and Shelvin. 

 

3T: 1st thru 5th

With Ogunjobi gone they have to replace over 700 snaps. This pick will be at the forefront of the draft and they will have to go after someone in free agency if they aren't happy with how things turn out. Whoever they draft this year will be expected to play a ton. BJ Hill might have been re-signed but he isn't the dynamic pass rusher they would want inside. 

 

Edge: Not with this roster

I have seen some first rounders at edge for us in mocks and I think that's a huge mistake. This roster is built perfectly for a 4th pass rusher who is a veteran on a one year deal. And the market is full of guys who can make an impact on limited snaps. We still don't really know what we have in Kareem, Sample or Hubert. Contractwise you want to cycle things in a sequence so drafting a DE who will be a FA immediately after Ossai-Hendrickson and Hubert all hit FA isn't wise. 

 

LB: 7th

We have a great recent track record with getting a ton out of fringe guys. LBs tend to fall in drafts and I wouldn't mind taking advantage of that late to throw a guy into the mix in the back of that room. Drafting a LB early probably never makes sense because of the small difference in paying a veteran vs a rookie. You want to draft at positions where there is a huge gap, DE, CB, LT, WR and QB. 

 

S: 3rd and beyond

Bates and Bell are both free agents and it's probably time to hedge our bets. I actually believe pretty strongly both are back, but we will need depth no matter what. I think we have too many high end needs to take one in the first couple rounds, but I could be talked into an elite player if that's the direction they go. 

 

Outside corner: Rd 1 and beyond

Eli Apple is fine but we won't want to rely on him alone. He is probably better off as a 4th corner and spot starter. Getting someone to pair with him on the outside in the first few rounds is essential.

 

Slot corner: Rd 4 and beyond

Hilton is a solid starter with positives and negatives in some areas. His backup could be upgraded. 

 

K/P/LS: Never

I would have never drafted a Kicker and would have been wrong. I wouldn't draft a punter this year because I think Chrisman can do it or rather is worth the attempt. 

 

I saw nothing but upside with Chris Evans when they drafted him. The major gripe was he hadn't played enough, but as far as I could tell it was related to scholastic issues which he rectified. Just more tread on the tires for a swiss army knife type back. He didn't get a lot of touches last year, but he did average 4.5 yards per carry and over 10 yards per catch, with 2 touchdowns. Surprised they didn't use him a little more.

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