Grading the 2024 Bengals Draft

[Jamie_B]

5 minutes ago, stan said:

Palazzo is from PFF.Not PFT.

 

Sorry not sure why I thought PFF

[fluhartz]

went chalk basically

 

Grade: B+

3 Picks: first three picks, but I really do like them. Burton maybe my favorite pick.

Happy with Mims: very pleased

 

I also really liked McLachlan, Cedric Johnson and Matt Lee.

This was a really solid draft IMO.

 

[|BlackJesus|]

Fox NFL grades ...

 

[|BlackJesus|]

PFF on the AFC North ...

 

[PatternMaster]

14 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

 Atlanta Falcons: MILLEN Grade

Goals Entering the 2024 NFL Draft: The Falcons eschewed all the quarterback prospects in this class by signing Kirk Cousins. The former Viking quarterback gives Atlanta a legitimate chances to make a deep run into the playoffs. There are still some issues, however, and most of them apply to the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons must improve their pass rush and cornerback group so they can battle the top offenses of the NFC.

2024 NFL Draft Accomplishments: “The Falcons eschewed all the quarterback prospects in this class by signing Kirk Cousins.” Yeah, so much for that. Atlanta made an inexplicably horrible decision to draft Michael Penix Jr. over Laiatu Latu at No. 8 overall. Giving Cousins a nine-figure deal indicated that the Falcons knew they are ready to win now. However, it seems as though they also want to build for the future. Having one foot in often leads to failure. Some will point out the “No Cookie” Jordan Love situation in Green Bay, but the Packers sabotaged a potential earlier Super Bowl victory by not giving Aaron Rodgers a weapon like Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk. The Falcons will have similar failures in the playoffs without a talented edge rusher like Latu.

This was the beginning of a disastrous weekend for the Falcons. They followed up the awful Penix pick by needlessly trading for Ruke Orhorhoro. This was one of a few reaches the Falcons made. Five of their eight picks graded as a C+ or worse. Two were failures.

Atlanta easily had the worst draft class of all the teams in the league. The team ruined its chances of winning when it had a golden opportinity to strengthen the current roster with a dynamic edge rusher. When the team can’t stop Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff or Brock Purdy come January, they can point to this weekend as to why they ended up losing.

 

This quite possibly the dumbest thing I've ever read on the internet, which is saying something. 1. Draft grades before a player has played a down of football is just stupid, it's impossible to judge a player until they have actually played in the NFL. 2. The people giving these draft grades are clueless as to what the teams are looking for in the draft and how they rank the players in the draft, they are literally just spewing bs and acting like they know things that they clearly do not..

 

The Falcons were smart to draft Penix because he's the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the draft and their current QB is 35 years old and coming off a major injury. A team without a QB has no chance of winning the Super Bowl, Atlanta felt like Penix gave them the best chance of any player that was available in the draft to win the Super Bowl so they drafted him, they did what all good teams do...they drafted the best available. 

 

This was a historically bad draft for defensive talent as no defensive player was taken until pick 15, the previous record was pick 8 in 2021. The Falcons weren't the only team that passed on defense to get an offensive player to help their team, they just drafted a QB that many people felt they didn't need, just because someone does something that you don't expect doesn't mean they are wrong.

 

The draft is a huge gamble there's no guarantee that any of these picks are going to work so assigning them a grade before they play a down of football is a fool's errand. 

[Le Tigre]

35 minutes ago, BlackJesus said:

PFF on the AFC North ...

 

The photo may later be captioned for the Bengals as “the one who got away”.

 

Still on the board when they took Problem Child. Now this one will be wearing Black/Gold and causing problems for the defenses in the AFCN 

[dex]

21 minutes ago, PatternMaster said:

 

This quite possibly the dumbest thing I've ever read on the internet, which is saying something. 1. Draft grades before a player has played a down of football is just stupid, it's impossible to judge a player until they have actually played in the NFL. 2. The people giving these draft grades are clueless as to what the teams are looking for in the draft and how they rank the players in the draft, they are literally just spewing bs and acting like they know things that they clearly do not..

 

 

I have no doubt that these media draft evaluators watch a lot of tape on these players. They see all of the testing results from the Scouting Combine and Pro Days. The 32 teams not only watch even more game tapes on these players going back years, they also have scouts watching practices of the college teams with the most talent cluster. They have their doctors going over the medical records, they talk with the players about schemes and individual plays to see how well they process info, they dig deep into the backgrounds of players carefully going all the way back through HS..

 

So with so much more info available to them on every prospect than a media draft evaluator (even the best ones) giving grades to these teams does seem silly. A media site wants to give a team pick an "A" for selecting a player the media draft experts have with a 3rd round grade in the 5th round? If 32 NFL teams pass twice on a player roughly twice twice each, it's fair to say that particular player got drafted right when he was supposed to. It's a little different if a player with a media 5th round grade gets taken 2 rounds earlier. You really don't know if another team would have done the same. But even then most teams have a pretty good idea of what is going on with others drafting before/behind around them, which players are visiting which teams, 

[Inigo Montoya]

I wouldn’t say it’s smart or dumb to do what the Falcons did, but there’s a few examples of it working out in the NFL.  The Niners stashed Steve Young for several years behind Montana and the Packers have also done it twice with Favre, Rodgers, and now Love.  It all depends on how each guy plays and there’s no debate about the cost of doing things this way.  It’s not just the guaranteed money paid to Cousins but also the lost opportunity cost of taking Penix to likely not play for a couple years.  Rookie QB contracts can be extremely valuable and a top 10 pick at another position who actually sees the field also has major potential value.  Given Cousins career to this point, he’s firmly in the above average category when healthy but he’s about to be 36 and coming off a serious injury.  If he is ineffective or suffers injury again, this move definitely looks different.  It’s also moot if Penix doesn’t perform whenever he gets his shot.  Time will tell but there’s a decent chance the critics will be wrong in condemning this move.

[BBR]

The big knock people are all hung up about with Penix Jr. is his age.  He turns 24 next week, so he could realistically be 26 or 27 before he ever starts a game (assuming Cousins keeps his spot and stays healthy).  So the age is really skewing things a bunch.

[sparky151]

Taking Penix over a pass rusher or CB or even Odunze was stupid. If they think Cousins is done, they shouldn't have signed him and guaranteed him 100 mil over the next 3 years. So they're paying the opportunity cost of not having a top 10 player to help them win games in 2024 then compounding the stupidity by undermining the guy they just married. If they had taken Tory Taylor at pick 8, it would be only slightly less dumb. 

[PatternMaster]

2 hours ago, BBR said:

The big knock people are all hung up about with Penix Jr. is his age.  He turns 24 next week, so he could realistically be 26 or 27 before he ever starts a game (assuming Cousins keeps his spot and stays healthy).  So the age is really skewing things a bunch.

 

QBs are playing into their mid to late 30's now, so they will get 10+ years from him if they want.

 

38 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Taking Penix over a pass rusher or CB or even Odunze was stupid. If they think Cousins is done, they shouldn't have signed him and guaranteed him 100 mil over the next 3 years. So they're paying the opportunity cost of not having a top 10 player to help them win games in 2024 then compounding the stupidity by undermining the guy they just married. If they had taken Tory Taylor at pick 8, it would be only slightly less dumb. 

 

The Falcons had Penix rated as the 2nd best player on their board and he was available, it would be stupid to not draft a player that you rank that high on your board if he's available. Cousins will be the QB for 2 years at the most if he can stay healthy and Penix is a better prospect than anyone that they will be able to draft in the next 3 years because they will be a 9-11 win team over the next 3 years. Cousins is not a franchise QB, which is why he's available, he's a good starting QB but you don't pass on a franchise QB, which the Falcons believe Penix is, for a good starting QB. 

 

The move is smart if you understand how to succession plan, which is what good organizations do. 

[|BlackJesus|]

5 hours ago, BlackJesus said:

PFF on the AFC North ...

 

 

The Mistake on the Lake knows they are being left behind ...

 

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, PatternMaster said:

 

QBs are playing into their mid to late 30's now, so they will get 10+ years from him if they want.

 

 

The Falcons had Penix rated as the 2nd best player on their board and he was available, it would be stupid to not draft a player that you rank that high on your board if he's available. Cousins will be the QB for 2 years at the most if he can stay healthy and Penix is a better prospect than anyone that they will be able to draft in the next 3 years because they will be a 9-11 win team over the next 3 years. Cousins is not a franchise QB, which is why he's available, he's a good starting QB but you don't pass on a franchise QB, which the Falcons believe Penix is, for a good starting QB. 

 

The move is smart if you understand how to succession plan, which is what good organizations do. 

 

Then they are tripling down on the stupid if they had Penix as the 2nd best player in this draft. They will have to make a decision on whether to exercise Penix's 5th year contract option as a first rounder before they are done with Cousins' guaranteed money. They should have maximized the value from pick 8, tried to win as many games as they can with Cousins and worried about the succession plan if it becomes clear Cousins isn't getting it done. Trading up to pick 1 is expensive. Trading up from the middle of the pack to pick 8 isn't when the time comes. 

 

There are lots of Falcons fans who think they should have traded down from 8 to a team like the Raiders who might want McCarthy. They could at least gain a 2nd out of the trade and maybe a pick next year too. Then they could have still chosen the first edge or CB at 13 and had some extra picks and not started a QB controversy. 

[|BlackJesus|]

Chris Simms liked the Bengals draft

(here he answers an angry Bengals fan)

[|SF2|]

First of all Steve Young didn’t become the full time starter in San Fran until he was 30.  His 7 straight pro-bowls were from age 31-37 and that was before modern cutting edge training existed. 
 

Second, Cousins is coming off a ruptured Achilles at age 35. Is there any history of a slow to begin with QB returning to form after an Achilles injury or any player for that matter?

 

”But SF2, why did they sign him?  That was stupid.”  Easy, their QB play has been utter shit for the last 4 seasons.  Held on to Ryan too long and Mariota and Ridder?  They were HORRIBLE.  
 

What other decent QB was out there?   And starting a rookie day one isnt a good idea in today’s game. Stroud is unicorn. Burrow, Bryce Young, Lawrence, Fields is more typical. 
 

You MUST have very good to great QB play or there is no way you do shit it this league anymore.  Cousins costs $100 mil for 2 years or $135 mil for 3.  Cap doesn’t matter because you have his replacement on a rookie deal.  Better to spin the roulette wheel twice betting on Red.  
 

We are lucky Browning turned out to be a very good backup. What was it,  66 different QBs started last year?

[claptonrocks]

1 hour ago, SF2 said:

First of all Steve Young didn’t become the full time starter in San Fran until he was 30.  His 7 straight pro-bowls were from age 31-37 and that was before modern cutting edge training existed. 
 

Second, Cousins is coming off a ruptured Achilles at age 35. Is there any history of a slow to begin with QB returning to form after an Achilles injury or any player for that matter?

 

”But SF2, why did they sign him?  That was stupid.”  Easy, their QB play has been utter shit for the last 4 seasons.  Held on to Ryan too long and Mariota and Ridder?  They were HORRIBLE.  
 

What other decent QB was out there?   And starting a rookie day one isnt a good idea in today’s game. Stroud is unicorn. Burrow, Bryce Young, Lawrence, Fields is more typical. 
 

You MUST have very good to great QB play or there is no way you do shit it this league anymore.  Cousins costs $100 mil for 2 years or $135 mil for 3.  Cap doesn’t matter because you have his replacement on a rookie deal.  Better to spin the roulette wheel twice betting on Red.  
 

We are lucky Browning turned out to be a very good backup. What was it,  66 different QBs started last year?

Great points..

Agree.

[PatternMaster]

16 hours ago, sparky151 said:

 

Then they are tripling down on the stupid if they had Penix as the 2nd best player in this draft. They will have to make a decision on whether to exercise Penix's 5th year contract option as a first rounder before they are done with Cousins' guaranteed money. They should have maximized the value from pick 8, tried to win as many games as they can with Cousins and worried about the succession plan if it becomes clear Cousins isn't getting it done. Trading up to pick 1 is expensive. Trading up from the middle of the pack to pick 8 isn't when the time comes. 

 

There are lots of Falcons fans who think they should have traded down from 8 to a team like the Raiders who might want McCarthy. They could at least gain a 2nd out of the trade and maybe a pick next year too. Then they could have still chosen the first edge or CB at 13 and had some extra picks and not started a QB controversy. 

 

Every team has its unique ranking of players for how they feel will fit in their systems, the new coaching staff of the Falcons felt that Penix was an ideal fit for what they wanted to do and ranked him high on their big board. Many other teams and ex-players, including former NFL MVP and Bengals QB Boomer Esiason, are very high on Penix as a prospect. Do you know the style of offense that the Falcons are going run under HC Morris and OC Robinson? Do you know what type of QB would be best in that offense? What skill sets do they value and what do they want their QB to do at a high level? I would say that the GM, HC, and OC who get paid millions of dollars to study these draft picks and design these offenses know what players fit their systems better than any of us. If you have NFL talent evaluators and former players all saying "This guy is special" then maybe, just maybe, they know what they are talking about. 

 

As for the Cousins deal, it's really a 3-year deal in which he could be cut after 2 years with only $35MM in dead money. After year 3 the dead money is $12.5MM and he will be 39 years old, so the Falcons won't have to wait 5 years. Cousins is coming off a serious Achilles injury and the Falcons don't want to be suck with Taylor Heinike if he gets injured again.

 

Arthur Blank wants to win a Super Bowl before he dies, he's going to be 82 years old in a few months and he knows that he needs a good QB to win a Super Bowl. Drafting a potential franchise QB is the best way to ensure that the Falcons will win a Super Bowl in the 5 to 10 years....simple as that. 

[|SF2|]

41 minutes ago, PatternMaster said:

 

Every team has its unique ranking of players for how they feel will fit in their systems, the new coaching staff of the Falcons felt that Penix was an ideal fit for what they wanted to do and ranked him high on their big board. Many other teams and ex-players, including former NFL MVP and Bengals QB Boomer Esiason, are very high on Penix as a prospect. Do you know the style of offense that the Falcons are going run under HC Morris and OC Robinson? Do you know what type of QB would be best in that offense? What skill sets do they value and what do they want their QB to do at a high level? I would say that the GM, HC, and OC who get paid millions of dollars to study these draft picks and design these offenses know what players fit their systems better than any of us. If you have NFL talent evaluators and former players all saying, this guy is going to be good, then maybe, just maybe they know what they are talking about. 

 

As for Cousins deal, it's really a 3-year deal in which he could be cut after 2 years with only $35MM in dead money. After year 3 the dead money is $12.5MM and he will be 39 years old, so the Falcons won't have to wait 5 years. Cousins is coming off a serious Achilles injury and the Falcons don't want to be suck with Taylor Heinike if he gets injured again.

 

Arthur Blank wants to win a Super Bowl before he dies, he's going be 82 years old in a few months and he knows that he needs a good QB to win a Super Bowl. Drafting a potential franchise QB is the best way to ensure that the Falcons will win a SuperBowl in the 5 to 10 years....simple as that. 

And again, Cousins was the best FA QB available and the Falcons had the 8th pick.  They were not getting Williams, Daniels or Maye.  That left Penix, JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix.  
 

No way the Falcons were going to fall for the Akille err Klingler uhh I mean JJ McCarthy hype bullshit. Let some other team pick 2024’s Josh Rosen/ Mitch Trubisky/ Carson Wentz.    
 

Nix is not a pro level QB. Does not have the talent.  Overthrows his receivers all the time which in the NFL means INTs!  
 

Basically, the Falcons did about as good as you can at the most important position in all of sports given the hand they had. 

[dex]

By draft night Penix had become a very popular QB. Reports are that Las Vegas, New Orleans and Seattle all tried to move up into Atlanta's slot at 8 to take Penix, thinking Atlanta was planning to go defense anyway. Atlanta just stayed at 8 and took Penix for themselves. Clearly his medical reports all checked out well.

[PatternMaster]

15 minutes ago, dex said:

By draft night Penix had become a very popular QB. Reports are that Las Vegas, New Orleans and Seattle all tried to move up into Atlanta's slot at 8 to take Penix, thinking Atlanta was planning to go defense anyway. Atlanta just stayed at 8 and took Penix for themselves. Clearly his medical reports all checked out well.

 

He hasn't been injured in 2 years, so he's relatively healthy by football standards. 

[PatternMaster]

35 minutes ago, SF2 said:

And again, Cousins was the best FA QB available and the Falcons had the 8th pick.  They were not getting Williams, Daniels or Maye.  That left Penix, JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix.  
 

No way the Falcons were going to fall for the Akille err Klingler uhh I mean JJ McCarthy hype bullshit. Let some other team pick 2024’s Josh Rosen/ Mitch Trubisky/ Carson Wentz.    
 

Nix is not a pro level QB. Does not have the talent.  Overthrows his receivers all the time which in the NFL means INTs!  
 

Basically, the Falcons did about as good as you can at the most important position in all of sports given the hand they had. 

 

Exactly, and Drake Maye isn't as good as Penix so the Patriots blew that pick if you ask me. The Pats have no offensive line, no WRs that are dynamic and scare opponents, and a rookie QB with sloppy feet and inconsistent accuracy. That's a bad situation for him and the team, if anyone should have traded down it was the Pats. 

 

If you listen to Lapham's podcast with Boomer Esaison, at the very end Boomer mentions how much he liked Penix, unsolicated btw...I've heard that on a few podcast with former NFL players about Penix. When you add in that all these teams that were trying to trade up to draft him then it shows that the people who get paid millions of dollars to do this for a living were high on Penix so it's not surprising that Atlanta make that pick. 

[|High School Harry|]

22 hours ago, BlackJesus said:

PFF on the AFC North ...

 

How can this fool give the Steals a better grade than us when we drafted the guy they wanted?

[PatternMaster]

29 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

How can this fool give the Steals a better grade than us when we drafted the guy they wanted?

 

They took Frazier in the second round, which we should have done because he's going to be a good player. The Stealers had a good draft for what they want to do, which is control the line of scrimmage and run the ball. 

[|BlackJesus|]

Re: Falcons

 

I was on record as saying the 2 best QBs in this class to me were JJ and Penix. So to me the problem isn't Atlanta taking Penix, it is taking Penix after giving Cousins a 100 million guaranteed. 

 

They knew they had the 8th pick when they signed Cousins and if they wanted a fresh start at QB, then don't sign him at all. If they didn't sign Cousins, the Penix pick would be an A to me. But because they did, it's a D. 

 

It would almost be as idiotic as the Bengals taking a QB in Rd 1 after signing Burrow and saying "it's good to have injury insurance, he was BPA". 

 

There's a certain point where your roster and financial commitments cancel out BPA and you have to think holistically and consider where your cap and draft capital is being spent.

[I_C_Deadpeople]

On 4/30/2024 at 11:13 AM, BlackJesus said:

PFF on the AFC North ...

 

Not sure the detailed analysis was posted:

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS: B+

• 1 (18): T Amarius Mims, Georgia
• 2 (49): DI Kris Jenkins, Michigan
• 3 (80): WR Jermaine Burton, Alabama
• 3 (96): DI McKinnley Jackson, Texas A&M
• 4 (115): TE Erick All, Iowa
• 5 (149): CB Josh Newton, TCU
• 6 (194): TE Tanner McLachlan, Arizona
• 6 (214): EDGE Cedric Johnson, Ole Miss
• 7 (224): S Daijahn Anthony, Ole Miss
• 7 (237): C Matt Lee, Miami Fl.

Mims — Cincinnati beefs up its pass protection in front of Joe Burrow by adding the massive Mims. He’s a fantastic athlete for his size but struggled with injuries at Georgia. Regardless, he allowed just six quarterback pressures across 402 career pass-blocking snaps and should start very soon, as Trent Brown is only a short-term solution at right tackle.

Jenkins — Jenkins is arguably the pound-for-pound strongest player in the draft. His 87.2 run-defense grade since 2022 ranked fifth among Power Five interior defenders, while his 82.7 PFF grade in 2023 ranked third among Big Ten interior defenders. Jenkins lacks length and an ideal pass-rush package, but his power alone will have him on the field on Sundays.

Burton — Despite sliding a bit due to some off-field concerns, Burton has a three-level skill set with great explosiveness and impressive ball skills. He didn’t drop any of his 57 targets this past season and could be a solid complement to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins from Day 1 due to his downfield playmaking ability.

Jackson — Jackson projects as a nose or three-technique in a 4-3 defensive scheme because he excels as a one-gap penetrator. He’s limited by a lack of length, but that didn’t stop him from racking up 34 run stops since 2022 (third-most in the SEC) with 14 of them for no gain or loss (fifth in the SEC). He’ll need to learn to hold up to double team blocks and develop a pass-rush repertoire, but he can be successful in a rotation.

All — The Bengals find a potential long-term starter in the fourth round, with All ranking as the third-best tight end on the PFF big board. His 2.62 yards per route in 2023 ranked second among draft-eligible tight ends.

Newton — Ranking 12th among Big-12 cornerbacks, Newton earned an 87.7 PFF grade combined over the past two seasons. Across 413 coverage snaps last year, he allowed just one touchdown.

McLachlan — The Bengals doubled up on tight ends by adding the safe-handed McLachlan. He didn’t drop a single pass from 45 catchable targets in 2023. His 530 receiving yards and four touchdowns were both career highs.

Johnson — Johnson has a solid size-speed combination for an edge defender this late in the draft and offered solid production in his final season in college. From 850 pass-rushing snaps over the past three seasons, he racked up 107 quarterback pressures, including 13 sacks.

Anthony — Anthony allowed just one touchdown across 394 coverage snaps in 2023. Opposing quarterbacks managed a passer rating of just 54.7 when targeting him in coverage.

Lee — Lee was exceptional in 2023 with the Hurricanes, ranking 10th among FBS centers in PFF grade (79.1). He didn’t allow a single sack on 414 pass-blocking snaps, and his 89.1 PFF pass-blocking grade ranked third among FBS centers. Lee is well worth a swing here for the Bengals, a team that continues to find value late in the draft.