Trey'd Hendrickson? I don't think so.

[sparky151]

Trading Trey at this point means throwing in the towel on having even a merely below average defense this season. It frees up some cap space and gets us a draft pick or two. But it doesn't get us a replacement who can reach double digit sacks this season. If we were going to trade Trey it needed to be worked out before Monday when teams started committing their cap space and potential replacements starting signing elsewhere. 

 

[HavePityPlease]

"Teams are willing to pay him but the Bengals' asking price is ridiculous" is simply a stupid thing to "report".

 

The Bengals didn't give Trey permission to seek a big contract, they gave him permission to seek a trade.  If the Bengals don't think they're getting fair value, then the trade search failed.  That's what to report.  If Trey thinks he's worth $32M then he should also think he's worth a low-first-to-early-second, or more (granted we don't know exactly what the Bengals are actually asking for, but supposedly Trey's team said they could fish out a first rounder, and haven't done so).  All of these dumb headlines always scream "agent cope" to me, and at best they're hoping to drum up fan + media pressure on the Bengals to "just go ahead and cut their losses".  This isn't the Seahawks trying to get some cap room and dump a headcase, this is the reigning sack leader that they have under a cheap contract (for what he brings) who actually wants to be here.

 

If you actually read these Twitter threads it becomes abundantly clear that most commenters assume that either a) Trey will walk this offseason if not traded (i.e. they don't realize he's under contract) or b) think that he'll hold out all year if necessary, which they seem to think ends up with him as an FA next year (it doesn't).  Having Trey Hendrickson on your defense in 2025 is a very desirable thing that the Bengals would be very happy to just let happen.  A funny one is that there's this sentiment in those threads that Trey is "only worth a third rounder bro".... well, if he walks next year the Bengals would get a 3rd round comp pick guaranteed, so having him on your defense + a third in 2027 is higher value than a third right now, at least when your goal is Super Bowl-in-the-JB-window.

[|BlackJesus|]

[|BlackJesus|]

Reviewing every sack by Trey in 2024 ... 

 

[alleycat]

2 hours ago, HavePityPlease said:

"Teams are willing to pay him but the Bengals' asking price is ridiculous" is simply a stupid thing to "report".

 

The Bengals didn't give Trey permission to seek a big contract, they gave him permission to seek a trade.  If the Bengals don't think they're getting fair value, then the trade search failed.  That's what to report.  If Trey thinks he's worth $32M then he should also think he's worth a low-first-to-early-second, or more (granted we don't know exactly what the Bengals are actually asking for, but supposedly Trey's team said they could fish out a first rounder, and haven't done so).  All of these dumb headlines always scream "agent cope" to me, and at best they're hoping to drum up fan + media pressure on the Bengals to "just go ahead and cut their losses".  This isn't the Seahawks trying to get some cap room and dump a headcase, this is the reigning sack leader that they have under a cheap contract (for what he brings) who actually wants to be here.

 

If you actually read these Twitter threads it becomes abundantly clear that most commenters assume that either a) Trey will walk this offseason if not traded (i.e. they don't realize he's under contract) or b) think that he'll hold out all year if necessary, which they seem to think ends up with him as an FA next year (it doesn't).  Having Trey Hendrickson on your defense in 2025 is a very desirable thing that the Bengals would be very happy to just let happen.  A funny one is that there's this sentiment in those threads that Trey is "only worth a third rounder bro".... well, if he walks next year the Bengals would get a 3rd round comp pick guaranteed, so having him on your defense + a third in 2027 is higher value than a third right now, at least when your goal is Super Bowl-in-the-JB-window.

I'm basically saying this elsewhere. People are trying to compare completely asymmetric realities. Trey's value isn't just money, or picks, or contract length/terms. It's a combination of all three, to both the bengals and any suitor. You can't look at any one element in isolation, without considering the others. The Bengals currently have the runner up for DPOY under contract at a premium position for a ridiculous $16M, and if they simply let him play and leave they get a 3rd round pick next year. Let's call that the equivalent of a 4th this year. So if teams are offering the Bengals nothing more than a 3rd round pick for him, that trade holds absolutely no value for the Bengals, who are the ones who OWN HIS RIGHTS. Sucks for Trey, but he agreed to this deal. 

 

Did he out-play his contract? Absolutely. Should they reward him handsomely? Absolutely...just as they said they would do. If rumors are true that they are willing to offer him anything approaching $30M/year, that's a very generous offer, if the teams that DON'T get a $18M discount this year are offering $34M. Using those rough numbers as the basis for an argument, in other words, Trey is worth 18M in value over cost to the Bengals this year, as well as a 4th round pick (3rd next year). If it's true that Trey's agent told the Bengals (and Trey) that he could get a first rounder for him, I don't blame either for believing him, because, frankly, that's about what he SHOULD be worth. They get NO comp pick for a trade, so all they are going to have to show for this is getting their best defender off the books, for whatever draft compensation they get. The huge exception here would be if another team would package actual players, and of course, given all of our holes, that would have immense value. It'd still screw us in the pass rush department for the coming season, but at least that would be a different conversation. 

 

I'm sure the biggest problem here is length of contract and guarantees. If I'm Trey, and I'm thinking I'm getting a guaranteed 3 year deal worth $100M, and the risk of injury playing for the Bengals in this last year and then getting hurt is great, then I do one of two things. 1) I mail it in this season, hoping to stay healthy and play out my deal...but then I risk hurting my deal next year, or 2) I meet the Bengals in the middle and take a 2 year deal worth as much as I can get ($30M?), as a kind of handshake that allows me to still extract value in that last year, be trade worthy in the next 2 years for a discount (good deal) to another team - who I might be able to leverage into redoing my deal, and hope that I can still get that last year (or 2!) down the road. 

[sparky151]

16 hours ago, HavePityPlease said:

"Teams are willing to pay him but the Bengals' asking price is ridiculous" is simply a stupid thing to "report".

 

The Bengals didn't give Trey permission to seek a big contract, they gave him permission to seek a trade.  If the Bengals don't think they're getting fair value, then the trade search failed.  That's what to report.  If Trey thinks he's worth $32M then he should also think he's worth a low-first-to-early-second, or more (granted we don't know exactly what the Bengals are actually asking for, but supposedly Trey's team said they could fish out a first rounder, and haven't done so).  All of these dumb headlines always scream "agent cope" to me, and at best they're hoping to drum up fan + media pressure on the Bengals to "just go ahead and cut their losses".  This isn't the Seahawks trying to get some cap room and dump a headcase, this is the reigning sack leader that they have under a cheap contract (for what he brings) who actually wants to be here.

 

If you actually read these Twitter threads it becomes abundantly clear that most commenters assume that either a) Trey will walk this offseason if not traded (i.e. they don't realize he's under contract) or b) think that he'll hold out all year if necessary, which they seem to think ends up with him as an FA next year (it doesn't).  Having Trey Hendrickson on your defense in 2025 is a very desirable thing that the Bengals would be very happy to just let happen.  A funny one is that there's this sentiment in those threads that Trey is "only worth a third rounder bro".... well, if he walks next year the Bengals would get a 3rd round comp pick guaranteed, so having him on your defense + a third in 2027 is higher value than a third right now, at least when your goal is Super Bowl-in-the-JB-window.

 

The GM quote about a 1st being "ridiculous" probably comes from a team interested in acquiring Trey. A neutral GM whose team wasn't looking to acquire more pass rush would probably just say it's a big ask but not unreasonable, especially if there are multiple suitors.

 

Another piece in The Athletic today said that almost any team would give a 2nd rounder for Trey. So he's worth pick 33 but not pick 32. 

 

At this point a trade looks unlikely unless the trade partner includes an impact defensive player. So the Bengals should just extend Trey. Give him say a 5 year 170 mil extension with 25 mil signing bonus and 50 mil guaranteed. That's a new money average of 34 mil per year and with his current year included would be 6 years, 186 mil or 31 on average. Make his 2025 salary the vet min so with the signing bonus he collects 26 mil this season, about 10 more than he would currently make. Pay him 24 mil next year, fully guaranteed. That completes his 50 mil in guarantees, and after that it's year by year so if the team wants to move on after 2026 or 2027, they will save quite a bit of cap space. If he keeps playing at a high level, great.

 

 

[LostInDaJungle]

The same thing happened with Carson, and we know there was a huge market for him.

The least surprising thing about all of this is the Brown regime placing a high premium on a trade for a player they don't value enough to extend. They think he's worth a mint in draft picks, but not worth investing in.

[I_C_Deadpeople]

26 minutes ago, LostInDaJungle said:

 

The least surprising thing about all of this is the Brown regime placing a high premium on a trade for a player they don't value enough to extend. They think he's worth a mint in draft picks, but not worth investing in.

Quite ironic...

[alleycat]

Just now, LostInDaJungle said:

The same thing happened with Carson, and we know there was a huge market for him.

The least surprising thing about all of this is the Brown regime placing a high premium on a trade for a player they don't value enough to extend. They think he's worth a mint in draft picks, but not worth investing in.

I think you're reading it wrong. What they see is precisely the value they HAVE. Right now it's the nearly $20M discount they get on him this upcoming season. That's a crazy value. Any willingness on their part to extend him, which they've said he's earned and they would like to do, essentially means they value him so much that they are willing to eat that $20M in free value. Point is, they own him, and they have that value, and while it's a grand gesture to re-up his deal and wipe it away, they are also going to want SOMETHING in return. Trey has to give somewhere. Whether it's years on the deal, guarantees, or money, there has to be some recognition that a) the team holds the cards, and b) they are already being generous (losing significant value) through their willingness to extend. Now obviously, the reason they want to extend is they see the future value he offers. 

 

But, for example, I could see them saying, OK, we are giving up $18M in value this season by extending you. rather than value you at $36M per year over three years, how about we discount that $18M over those three years, so we'll give you $29M/year? I realize that they have reportedly offered 30 or 32, but the point is that they aren't going to just give up that value. Losing Trey will be of course even more costly, and so of course the team will want to get even more value in return for that. 

[sparky151]

The team can't play hardball with him and have a good season. It will rankle the rest of the roster and Trey has various options to make his displeasure known. He could hold out ala Hasson Reddick last year. Or hold in over the course of the season, pleading a soft tissue injury. Or demand a trade each week until the deadline. Etc. 

[LostInDaJungle]

16 minutes ago, alleycat said:

I think you're reading it wrong. What they see is precisely the value they HAVE. Right now it's the nearly $20M discount they get on him this upcoming season. That's a crazy value. Any willingness on their part to extend him, which they've said he's earned and they would like to do, essentially means they value him so much that they are willing to eat that $20M in free value. Point is, they own him, and they have that value, and while it's a grand gesture to re-up his deal and wipe it away, they are also going to want SOMETHING in return. Trey has to give somewhere. Whether it's years on the deal, guarantees, or money, there has to be some recognition that a) the team holds the cards, and b) they are already being generous (losing significant value) through their willingness to extend. Now obviously, the reason they want to extend is they see the future value he offers. 

 

But, for example, I could see them saying, OK, we are giving up $18M in value this season by extending you. rather than value you at $36M per year over three years, how about we discount that $18M over those three years, so we'll give you $29M/year? I realize that they have reportedly offered 30 or 32, but the point is that they aren't going to just give up that value. Losing Trey will be of course even more costly, and so of course the team will want to get even more value in return for that. 

There is no value to having the league's leading sack artist playing pissed off. Look at the Jamarr holdout and subsequent slow start from last year. And Trey will be QUITE a bit more P.O.ed than Jamarr. Did Tee look to be giving it 100% on the franchise tag last year? Sparky is right... Them soft tissue injuries are hard to diagnose.

The salary isn't the sticking point. Other teams are willing to give him his bag. The "value" isn't his low contract, because they plan to trade him and extend him immediately.

[alleycat]

7 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

The team can't play hardball with him and have a good season. It will rankle the rest of the roster and Trey has various options to make his displeasure known. He could hold out ala Hasson Reddick last year. Or hold in over the course of the season, pleading a soft tissue injury. Or demand a trade each week until the deadline. Etc. 

I said this elsewhere: one option Trey has is to mail it in next season, but that will surely have a greater impact on his future value than anything else. So he won't do that. He also can't sit out, because he's 30, and if I'm not mistaken sitting out. This is all business, for both sides, and both sides are going to extract maximum value and use all of their leverage here. At the end of the day, it makes the most sense for both sides to work out a deal with each other, to find some middle ground. Unless that team emerges that's willing to offer up a mint for Trey, but as I've also said elsewhere, for me that would require at least 1 premium pick, if not (and also?) players in return. 

[alleycat]

2 minutes ago, LostInDaJungle said:

There is no value to having the league's leading sack artist playing pissed off. Look at the Jamarr holdout and subsequent slow start from last year. And Trey will be QUITE a bit more P.O.ed than Jamarr. Did Tee look to be giving it 100% on the franchise tag last year? Sparky is right... Them soft tissue injuries are hard to diagnose.

The salary isn't the sticking point. Other teams are willing to give him his bag. The "value" isn't his low contract, because they plan to trade him and extend him immediately.

Last year plainly disagrees with you. Trey signaled he was unhappy, even tried to play a game of chicken, but ultimately accepted reality, put his head down, and led the NFL in sacks. Why? Because he's a competitor, but also because he knows that his best path forward to a big future payday is how he performs on the field. 

[LostInDaJungle]

2 minutes ago, alleycat said:

I said this elsewhere: one option Trey has is to mail it in next season, but that will surely have a greater impact on his future value than anything else. So he won't do that. He also can't sit out, because he's 30, and if I'm not mistaken sitting out. This is all business, for both sides, and both sides are going to extract maximum value and use all of their leverage here. At the end of the day, it makes the most sense for both sides to work out a deal with each other, to find some middle ground. Unless that team emerges that's willing to offer up a mint for Trey, but as I've also said elsewhere, for me that would require at least 1 premium pick, if not (and also?) players in return. 

Just like Jamarr's hold out and Tee's soft tissue injuries cost them big money??

I gotta be honest, this sounds like someone trying to save some money, not win a championship. So, you're welcome to that opinion, but I completely disagree with your entire perspective on what we're trying to achieve here.

[sparky151]

It looks to me like you're both in agreement that the Bengals should give Trey a fair contract with a raise as part of an extension. That's my view too.

 

[texbengal]

41 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

It looks to me like you're both in agreement that the Bengals should give Trey a fair contract with a raise as part of an extension. That's my view too.

 

And I think that's where they will ultimately land.