Who Will Make the Playoffs?

[Bleeds Orange]

[quote name='Bunghole' timestamp='1324260285' post='1076834']
Why would we root for Cleveland to win?
[/quote]

I think it was because of the Strength of Victory tiebreaker, since the Bengals have two wins over the Browns.

[|Bunghole|]

[quote name='Bleeds Orange' timestamp='1324263014' post='1076874']

I think it was because of the Strength of Victory tiebreaker, since the Bengals have two wins over the Browns.
[/quote]
Isn't that really far down on the tiebreaker scale? To me the bottom line is that because of the Houston debacle, the Bengals simply cannot afford to lose again and they no longer totally control their own destiny, so just winning out the last two games is the most important thing, and that losses by the Jets, Titans, Bronk-hoe-Tebows and Raiders helped that cause.

[Le Tigre]

All things considered...we should look at today as an overall very good day for us. Two 6-loss teams are now 7-loss teams, and a 5-loss team is now a 6-loss team...with perhaps #7 happening next week.

The margin of "help" we needed, dramatically increased today...meaning if we take care of our own business these next two weeks, the amount of "help" we need has markedly decreased.

It's a very good day, indeed.

[J. Lindsey]

Scenario - Jets and Bengals both win out to finish 10-6, and it is just a two way tie for wild card.

Tie Breakers -
1. Conference Record - Both would be 7-5
2. Common Games Record - Both would be 3-2
3. Strength of Victory - Right now the Jets edge us out in this, but it's too hard to speculate what teams that each has defeated might do the rest of the way. Beating Baltimore with a 12-3 record would really boost our Strength of Victory. We definitely want Cleveland, Indy, St. Louis and are other defeated teams to win though.
4. Strength of Schedule - If we some how tie for SOV, we currently having a stronger strength of schedule including our future games.

[sparky151]

[quote name='Le Tigre' timestamp='1324260699' post='1076842']

Did you happen to watch Arizona today? The Brownies owned them up and down the field on both sides of the ball...until they decided to become the the Brownies we all know and love at the very end.

They will be tougher than the Rams...but don't go making them out to be the Kurt Warner Cardinals either. They are eminently beatable.
[/quote]

Yep. Detroit's win today reduced the Cards chances. I don't see them flying across the country to play outdoors on Christmas weekend in cold weather and winning.

[JC]

So as much as it pains me to say it, I think we are looking for the Steelers to win tomorrow night. The Steelers are going to beat the rams, I have no doubt, the Browns could give the Ravens a game, but lets say that the Ravens win. We need to get flexed into the night spot and Steelers to win the day game, so no matter what the Ravens are entrenched into that 5th spot and they have nothing at all to play for.

It's plausible. But the Steelers could be without Ben tomorrow night and with our trouble selling out, we could have a hard time getting flexed. I'm sure NBC doesn't want a prime-time game 3/4th's full.

Edit: PFT reporting Ben is playing tomorrow night. Patrick Willis should be out as well. Unfortunately, I think it's in our best interest to root for those cocksuckers.

[|Bengal Migration|]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1324270125' post='1076919']
So as much as it pains me to say it, I think we are looking for the Steelers to win tomorrow night. The Steelers are going to beat the rams, I have no doubt, the Browns could give the Ravens a game, but lets say that the Ravens win. We need to get flexed into the night spot and Steelers to win the day game, so no matter what the Ravens are entrenched into that 5th spot and they have nothing at all to play for.
[/quote]

Yep. That's the thought that's been recurring to me as well. Though, with as poorly as the ratbirds have been playing on the road this year, I think we can beat them straight up, anyway. But I'd be perfectly happy if they decided to sit everyone week 17 and let us creep on into the playoffs without much of a fight.

[The_Joker]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1324270125' post='1076919']So as much as it pains me to say it, I think we are looking for the Steelers to win tomorrow night. The Steelers are going to beat the rams, I have no doubt, the Browns could give the Ravens a game, but lets say that the Ravens win. We need to get flexed into the night spot and Steelers to win the day game, so no matter what the Ravens are entrenched into that 5th spot and they have nothing at all to play for.

It's plausible. But the Steelers could be without Ben tomorrow night and with our trouble selling out, we could have a hard time getting flexed. I'm sure NBC doesn't want a prime-time game 3/4th's full.

Edit: PFT reporting Ben is playing tomorrow night. Patrick Willis should be out as well. Unfortunately, I think it's in our best interest to root for those cocksuckers.[/quote]
I am not convinced it will come down this far in the senarios. I believe the jets will drop one to the giants. I am not overly worried about the cards and I am hoping for an inspired performance against the ravens at home to put us in with some momentum. I would hate to back in on the coat tails of the stealers. I see your point but I can't root for this franchise on any condition....hey maybe their plane crashes on the way out there and the point will be moot? Now that I can root for!

[Bleeds Orange]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1324270125' post='1076919']
So as much as it pains me to say it, I think we are looking for the Steelers to win tomorrow night. The Steelers are going to beat the rams, I have no doubt, the Browns could give the Ravens a game, but lets say that the Ravens win. We need to get flexed into the night spot and Steelers to win the day game, so no matter what the Ravens are entrenched into that 5th spot and they have nothing at all to play for.

It's plausible. But the Steelers could be without Ben tomorrow night and with our trouble selling out, we could have a hard time getting flexed. I'm sure NBC doesn't want a prime-time game 3/4th's full.

Edit: PFT reporting Ben is playing tomorrow night. Patrick Willis should be out as well. Unfortunately, I think it's in our best interest to root for those cocksuckers.
[/quote]

You're definitely onto something, although it will be hard to root for the Stealers.

[oldschooler]

[b]WHY THE JETS LEAD THE BENGALS: [/b]Currently you have to go to tie-breaker No. 3 which is win percentage against common opponents. The Jets are 3-2 against Jacksonville (win), Buffalo (two wins), Baltimore (loss) and Denver (loss) while the Bengals are 2-2 with the one game against Baltimore remaining. If both teams win out their final two games they will finish even in this category and have to move on down to Tiebreaker No. 4, which is strength of victory. Simply put, it’s how many games the teams you have defeated won. The Jets currently hold a 10-game advantage; teams they have beaten are 43-69 while the Bengals’ strength of victory is 33-79.

There just aren’t going to be enough games for the Bengals to make up that difference. A Cleveland win against Arizona on Sunday would have been helpful but the Browns lost 20-17 in OT after holding a 17-7 lead. The Bengals are going to need to stay out of a tie-breaker situation with the Jets to reach the postseason.

[b]HOW THE BENGALS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS: [/b] The Bengals get in if they win out AND the Jets lose or tie one of their last two games.

It’s even possible for the Bengals to lose once (Ravens?) and get in if the Jets lose twice OR the Jets lose once and tie once. But that’s asking way too much. Besides, the Raiders, Chargers or Titans could slip in by winning out.

Neither the Bengals or Jets have an easy road left.

For the Jets, they face the cross-town rival Giants (7-7), who are fighting for the NFC East title despite a disappointing loss at home against Washington on Sunday, and then must travel to division rival Miami for the season finale.

The Bengals take on an Arizona team that still harbors wild card hopes in the NFC and has won six of its last seven games before closing it out with Baltimore. The Ravens are likely to still be fighting for the division title, the top seed in the AFC or both come New Year’s Day.



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2011/12/18/survival-in-st-louis-keeps-bengals-in-thick-of-playoff-hunt/

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1324300255' post='1076972']
[b]WHY THE JETS LEAD THE BENGALS: [/b]Currently you have to go to tie-breaker No. 3 which is win percentage against common opponents. The Jets are 3-2 against Jacksonville (win), Buffalo (two wins), Baltimore (loss) and Denver (loss) while the Bengals are 2-2 with the one game against Baltimore remaining. If both teams win out their final two games they will finish even in this category and have to move on down to Tiebreaker No. 4, which is strength of victory. Simply put, it’s how many games the teams you have defeated won. The Jets currently hold a 10-game advantage; teams they have beaten are 43-69 while the Bengals’ strength of victory is 33-79.

There just aren’t going to be enough games for the Bengals to make up that difference. A Cleveland win against Arizona on Sunday would have been helpful but the Browns lost 20-17 in OT after holding a 17-7 lead. The Bengals are going to need to stay out of a tie-breaker situation with the Jets to reach the postseason.

[b]HOW THE BENGALS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS: [/b] The Bengals get in if they win out AND the Jets lose or tie one of their last two games.

It’s even possible for the Bengals to lose once (Ravens?) and get in if the Jets lose twice OR the Jets lose once and tie once. But that’s asking way too much. Besides, the Raiders, Chargers or Titans could slip in by winning out.

Neither the Bengals or Jets have an easy road left.

For the Jets, they face the cross-town rival Giants (7-7), who are fighting for the NFC East title despite a disappointing loss at home against Washington on Sunday, and then must travel to division rival Miami for the season finale.

The Bengals take on an Arizona team that still harbors wild card hopes in the NFC and has won six of its last seven games before closing it out with Baltimore. The Ravens are likely to still be fighting for the division title, the top seed in the AFC or both come New Year’s Day.



[url="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2011/12/18/survival-in-st-louis-keeps-bengals-in-thick-of-playoff-hunt/"]http://cincinnati.co...f-playoff-hunt/[/url]
[/quote]

This doesnt include the option of the Jets beating NYG and losing to miami, but the bengals losing to Ari and beating Baltimore. That would give us the tiebreaker over the jets as well.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1324302276' post='1076975']

This doesnt include the option of the Jets beating NYG and losing to miami, but the bengals losing to Ari and beating Baltimore. That would give us the tiebreaker over the jets as well.
[/quote]

Also in this same scenario, even if Tenn wins out and its a 3 way tie (with our win being against Baltimore and the jets loss being to Miami) we would still get in as long as Oakland loses one of their last two (or Denver loses both).

[|schotzee|]

Nothings ever a gimme for sure,but at least both our remaining games are home!Jets are on the road for 1 of theirs so hope that helps!!

[|schotzee|]

[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1324302415' post='1076976']

Also in this same scenario, even if Tenn wins out and its a 3 way tie (with our win being against Baltimore and the jets loss being to Miami) we would still get in as long as Oakland loses one of their last two (or Denver loses both).
[/quote]


Excellent point!!

Well I meant to rep you in post 236 but no matter

[AmishBengalFan]

The Jets' 10-game SoV advantage referenced above is hogwash. You cannot assume a tie at 10-6 that is broken by SoV and NOT include the record of the team you have to beat to get to that 10-6 tie. The actual gap is 6, and the effective gap is 5 because next week's Browns-Ravens game is guaranteed to earn us an extra SoV game. (We beat CLE twice, and if we go 10-6 we have to beat BAL in Week 17). There are two other Week 17 games that turn out to be a push: DAL-NYG is a +1 for NYJ because they beat them both, but SEA-ARI is a +1 for CIN because (in this scenario) we beat them both as well. The two games cancel.

If we win out, the only team who can get in our way is the Jets, who can tie us if they also win out. If that happens, our tiebreak will be based on Strength of Victory. Assuming both of us win our remaining games, the teams we have defeated would have 51 wins PLUS whatever else they collect these next 2 weeks. The Jets' defeated teams would have 57 wins. We need to make up 6 games. If we make up more than 6, we win. If we make up exactly 6 and tie, our strength of schedule is greater than theirs and we win.

By the way, if you see other #s for Stength of Victory, they're incorrect. Here's the actual break down if CIN and NYJ go 10-6:

Bengals: ARI (7) + BAL (10) + BUF (5) + CLE (4) + CLE (4) + IND (1) + JAX (4) + SEA (7) + STL (2) + TEN (7) = 51
NY Jets: BUF (5) + BUF (5) + DAL (8) + JAX (4) + KCC (6) + MIA (5) + MIA (5) + NYG (7) + SDC (7) + WAS (5) = 57

Here are the games that remain and how they affect our tiebreak. Remember, this assumes both of us win out:

Tonight: PIT-SFF - no effect

WEEK 16:
HOU-IND: IND+1
CLE-BAL: CLE+2 BAL+1
MIN-WAS: WAS-1
JAX-TEN: no effect
STL-PIT: STL+1
DEN-BUF: BUF-1
TBB-CAR: no effect
OAK-KCC: KCC-1
MIA-NEP: MIA-2
SDC-DET: SDC-1
SFF-SEA: SEA+1
PHI-DAL: DAL-1
CHI-GBP: no effect
ATL-NOS: no effect

Week 17:
TBB-ATL: no effect
SFF-STL: STL+1
WAS-PHI: WAS-1
PIT-CLE: CLE+2
DET-GBP: no effect
TEN-HOU: no effect
IND-JAX: IND+1
CHI-MIN: no effect
BUF-NEP: BUF-1
CAR-NOS: no effect
DAL-NYG: DAL-1 NYG-1
SEA-ARI: ARI+1 SEA+1
KCC-DEN: KCC+1
SDC-OAK: SDC-1

The CLE-BAL game next week is a guaranteed +1 for us, so our gap is effectively 5 and we get a bonus +1 if CLE wins. The week 17 DAL-NYG is a guaranteed -1, but ARI-SEA is a guaranteed +1, so those two cancel. Adjusting for all of this, we need a net of +5 from the following:

Week 16:
+1 ea: IND over HOU, CLE over BAL, STL over PIT, SEA over SFF
-1 ea: WAS over MIN, BUF over DEN, KCC over OAK, SDC over DET, DAL over PHI
-2 ea: MIA over NEP

Week 17:
+2 ea: CLE over PIT
+1 ea: STL over SFF, IND over JAX, KCC over DEN
-1 ea: WAS over PHI, BUF over NEP, SDC over OAK

If all the PLUS games go our way we pick up +9. So if the Jets accumulate 5 or more minuses we cannot win this tiebreaker. Also, even if they don't get 5 minuses, every minus they do get has to be offset by an additional plus. Pulling all of this together, we need TWELVE of the following results over the next 2 weeks:

Week 16:
IND over HOU
CLE over BAL
MIN over WAS
STL over PIT
DEN over BUF
OAK over KCC
NEP over MIA (counts double)
DET over SDC
SEA over SFF
PHI over DAL

Week 17:
STL over SFF
PHI over WAS
CLE over PIT (counts double)
IND over JAX
NEP over BUF
KCC over DEN
OAK over SDC

Nineteen opportunities, twelve must go our way. It's not looking good. And of course, if either team loses a game this week or next, all of this goes out the window.

[Bleeds Orange]

I know Miami has been playing better, but I just don't see them beating the Jets in Week 17. The Jets will have everything in the world to play for, while the Dolphins will be looking to finish out the season and go home for the winter. I think the Dolphins may give them a good game, but when it gets down to crunch time, the Jets are going to need it more and want it more. They will be desperate for a win and the Dolphins won't be.

I'm afraid that unless the Giants can knock off the Jets this weekend, the Bengals won't get in.

[Rumble In the Jungle]

We just have to win the next 2 games or all of this is pointless. I believe the Giants will beat the snot out of the Jets Sunday. So they'll be 8-7 and if we win we'll be 9-6. But the Ravens still scare me though.

[|kennethmw|]

[quote name='Bleeds Orange' timestamp='1324316190' post='1077043']
I know Miami has been playing better, but I just don't see them beating the Jets in Week 17. The Jets will have everything in the world to play for, while the Dolphins will be looking to finish out the season and go home for the winter. I think the Dolphins may give them a good game, but when it gets down to crunch time, the Jets are going to need it more and want it more. They will be desperate for a win and the Dolphins won't be.

I'm afraid that unless the Giants can knock off the Jets this weekend, the Bengals won't get in.
[/quote]

I'm just glad we're still getting Amish to break out the football calculator to determine our chances the week before Christmas!!

[Bleeds Orange]

[quote name='Rumble In the Jungle' timestamp='1324316463' post='1077046']
We just have to win the next 2 games or all of this is pointless. I believe the Giants will beat the snot out of the Jets Sunday. So they'll be 8-7 and if we win we'll be 9-6. But the Ravens still scare me though.
[/quote]

I have more faith in the Bengals beating the Ravens than I do the Dolphins beating the Jets. The Ravens didn't look too great last night and, if not for a TD being taken away from the Bengals, they would've gone to OT in Baltimore. The Ravens haven't been good on the road. If there's something left to play for, I give the Bengals a shot.

I hope you're right about the Giants. I have questions about this Saturday's game in New Jersey. It's a home game for the Jets, so their season-ticket holders will hold the seats. But how many Giants fans will slip through the cracks and be in attendance? Will there be lots of season tickets owned by corporations that could just as easily end up in the hands of Giants fans? How much home field advantage will be lost by the Jets?

[Oldcat]

[indent=1][i]The CLE-BAL game next week is a guaranteed +1 for us, so our gap is effectively 5 and we get a bonus +1 if CLE wins. The week 17 DAL-NYG is a guaranteed -1, but ARI-SEA is a guaranteed +1, so those two cancel. Adjusting for all of this, we need a net of +5 from the following:[/i][/indent] [indent=1]
So we should wish for DAL-NYG to end in a tie.[/indent]

[quote name='Bleeds Orange' timestamp='1324316190' post='1077043']
I know Miami has been playing better, but I just don't see them beating the Jets in Week 17. The Jets will have everything in the world to play for, while the Dolphins will be looking to finish out the season and go home for the winter. I think the Dolphins may give them a good game, but when it gets down to crunch time, the Jets are going to need it more and want it more. They will be desperate for a win and the Dolphins won't be.

I'm afraid that unless the Giants can knock off the Jets this weekend, the Bengals won't get in.
[/quote]

The same thing was true this week about Miami, but they went and kicked the snot out of the Bills.

[ccartman2]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1324270125' post='1076919']
So as much as it pains me to say it, I think we are looking for the Steelers to win tomorrow night. The Steelers are going to beat the rams, I have no doubt, the Browns could give the Ravens a game, but lets say that the Ravens win. We need to get flexed into the night spot and Steelers to win the day game, so no matter what the Ravens are entrenched into that 5th spot and they have nothing at all to play for.

It's plausible. But the Steelers could be without Ben tomorrow night and with our trouble selling out, we could have a hard time getting flexed. I'm sure NBC doesn't want a prime-time game 3/4th's full.

Edit: PFT reporting Ben is playing tomorrow night. Patrick Willis should be out as well. Unfortunately, I think it's in our best interest to root for those cocksuckers.
[/quote]

Even with nothing to play for, if I am the Ravens, I'm playing to knock us out. Marvin has owned them for the most part, and we nearly beat them with out AJ (well at least tied them). It's a similar scenario to when we let the jets in a couple years ago. Let the team in you have a better chance at beating and don't let in a division rival who knows you well.

[Oldcat]

[quote name='ccartman2' timestamp='1324317787' post='1077061']

Even with nothing to play for, if I am the Ravens, I'm playing to knock us out. Marvin has owned them for the most part, and we nearly beat them with out AJ (well at least tied them). It's a similar scenario to when we let the jets in a couple years ago. Let the team in you have a better chance at beating and don't let in a division rival who knows you well.
[/quote]

But the chances that the Ravens would play us are remote - the AFC championship would be the first shot if they are a 5 seed.

[JC]

If the Giants weren't the most inconsistent team in the NFL, I wouldn't be so nervous.

With that being said, Sanchez has been pretty bad. If they can shut down Holmes, they will be alright. Just need Eli to not absolutely suck for them to win. Please Giants, PLEASE.

[AmishBengalFan]

[quote name='Oldcat' timestamp='1324317504' post='1077055'][indent=1][i]The CLE-BAL game next week is a guaranteed +1 for us, so our gap is effectively 5 and we get a bonus +1 if CLE wins. The week 17 DAL-NYG is a guaranteed -1, but ARI-SEA is a guaranteed +1, so those two cancel. Adjusting for all of this, we need a net of +5 from the following:[/i][/indent] [indent=1] So we should wish for DAL-NYG to end in a tie.[/indent] [/quote]
Not really.

In this scenario, NYJ has handed losses to both DAL and NYG. If the DAL-NYG game ends in a win for either team, NYJ gets +1 win to their SoV total. If it's a tie, NYJ gets +2 ties (which is the same as +1 win).

I know someone will chime in and say that it's about winning percentage, not # of wins. That's true. But if CIN and NYJ finish with the same record, in this case 10-6, each of us will have defeated ten teams, each of whom will have played 16 games. The W's and L's for our SoV calculations will total to 160 for us both. Our SoV winning percentage is W/160 for us both, so it really does come down to just wins.

[Jason]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1324245115' post='1076607']
It's like Santonio Holmes wants the Jets to lose as much as I do.
[/quote]

I used to like Santonio Holmes.

That seems like such a long time ago.