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59 minutes ago, snarkster said:

If he coasts through the season (making it to mediocre ones in a row, who's giving him top money?

 

 

IDK, said it before but it's not like this is prime Ed Reed we're talking about.  He's a good safety but they have to be smart about things with so many young guys headed to FA in the next 2-3 years. I've not seen anything out of Bates to make me think he's irreplaceable. 

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Once again, pure speculation by the squawking heads as to what Jessie’s intentions are going to be. 
 

In lieu of a deal, he will absolutely sign the tender…it would be lunacy not to do this first step. Show up at TC? Who knows. Play half-ass during the season? Seriously? How in the hell would that benefit him? 
 

They will get balls-out JBIII in 2022. Mark it. 

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Bates has almost no leverage at this point. He's made probably 8 million total in his entire career, so he can't afford to turn down the 13 million this year and not sign the tender.

 

He's also not a universally recognized all-pro where a team will offer multiple first Rd picks for him like Jamal Adams (which the Bengals would gladly take). 

 

I understand Bates wants to cash-in and get a guaranteed 40 million to set his family up for life, but if that's the case his most safe way to do that is to sign a 5 year 65 million dollar deal with the Bengals (13 per year), where they would likely guarantee the first 2 years (26 guaranteed). 

 

Not doing that risks a catastrophic injury under the tag, which is a huge risk he shouldn't take. Or sitting out the entire year and not getting a better deal than that anyway with another team (when you add in a year of lost income). If his agent refuses to play ball in the next week, he is doing Bates a big disservice. 

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14 hours ago, BlackJesus said:

I understand Bates wants to cash-in and get a guaranteed 40 million to set his family up for life, but if that's the case his most safe way to do that is to sign a 5 year 65 million dollar deal with the Bengals (13 per year), where they would likely guarantee the first 2 years (26 guaranteed)

With contract extensions the Bengals only guarantee the first year for their players, the only exception being QBs. Dalton got the first 2 years guaranteed on his contract extension back in 2014. He was the last Cincinnati extension that was guaranteed more than the first year, and even that one was incredibly team friendly.

 

Not only will that strategy not work with Bates, there is very little reason to believe it will work with Higgins, Logan Wilson, and definitely not Chase. Not with the way the league is trending with guaranteed money. I doubt you would even be able to get Higgins or Chase to play under the franchise tag with the way WRs are valued across the league. Those two may have to be traded away like AJ Brown or Hollywood Brown after their 3rd year. Could bring back a 1st rounder for Higgins, and Chase could bring you several top draft picks. 

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5 minutes ago, dex said:

With contract extensions the Bengals only guarantee the first year for their players, the only exception being QBs. Dalton got the first 2 years guaranteed on his contract extension back in 2014. He was the last Cincinnati extension that was guaranteed more than the first year, and even that one was incredibly team friendly.

 

Not only will that strategy not work with Bates, there is very little reason to believe it will work with Higgins, Logan Wilson, and definitely not Chase. Not with the way the league is trending with guaranteed money. I doubt you would even be able to get Higgins or Chase to play under the franchise tag with the way WRs are valued across the league. Those two may have to be traded away like AJ Brown or Hollywood Brown after their 3rd year. Could bring back a 1st rounder for Higgins, and Chase could bring you several top draft picks. 

The team has come a long way in terms of change, I expect they will move in the direction of higher amounts guaranteed shortly. They will have no choice. 

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47 minutes ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

The team has come a long way in terms of change, I expect they will move in the direction of higher amounts guaranteed shortly. They will have no choice. 

You are right, they are doing a lot of things differently than before, and most of it seems to be working well.

 

But as for the issue of guaranteed money on extensions, there is a good reason why Cincinnati is ranked number one in the NFL in terms of "overall cap health." That sounds like a good thing, to be ranked number one, but this is one of those categories where I wish the Bengals were ranked closer to the middle of the pack like most of the the other smart Super Bowl contending organizations. But so far it seems that the Blackburns aren't really concerned with what's going on around the league.. They have their own way of doing contract business and don't seem eager to adapt to an ever-changing league.

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22 hours ago, Le Tigre said:

Once again, pure speculation by the squawking heads as to what Jessie’s intentions are going to be. 
 

In lieu of a deal, he will absolutely sign the tender…it would be lunacy not to do this first step. Show up at TC? Who knows. Play half-ass during the season? Seriously? How in the hell would that benefit him? 
 

They will get balls-out JBIII in 2022. Mark it. 

 

Bates has said he won't play on the tag in 2022. I don't think the team is interested in signing him to a long term deal unless it's really cheap as a Bell replacement. So my guess is that Bates holds out through training camp and preseason and shows up before week 1 when it would cost him money. IMO the team would be willing to trade him if they got a good offer but they won't get an offer of at least a 2nd round pick for him since the new team couldn't extend him. So Hill will be the starter by default in preseason and if he plays well will keep the job. If Hill has rookie struggles, Bates is back in the lineup again.

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9 hours ago, dex said:

I doubt you would even be able to get Chase to play under the franchise tag

 

Chase will be resigned way in advance, just like Burrow will. Both are basically "here's a blank check write in a numberHall of Fame players. Big difference between them and Bates.

 

Now Higgins might be traded yes, but I hope not. If he is, I think Justin Jefferson becomes an option for reuniting with Chase and Burrow (though he will cost even more). 

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7 minutes ago, BlackJesus said:

 

Chase will be resigned way in advance, just like Burrow will. Both are basically "here's a blank check write in a number" kind of Hall of Fame players. Big difference between them and Bates.

 

Now Higgins might be traded yes, but I hope not. If he is, I think Justin Jefferson becomes an option for reuniting with Chase and Burrow (though he will cost even more). 

But to re-sign Chase to an extension will require Cincinnati to do something that they have never done before in terms of guaranteed money. I hope they have a plan to retain all of their impact players to extensions, but to do so will require an updated way of structuring contracts more in line with the rest of the NFL.

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^ Not sure how to interpret a ship anchor? Staying put? Sinking? Disembarking for a new shore? 

 

Rather than "staying grounded", how about signing a deal for a 6x pay raise and not hold out for a 9x raise and get injured. 

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8 hours ago, BlackJesus said:

^ Not sure how to interpret a ship anchor? Staying put? Sinking? Disembarking for a new shore? 

 

Rather than "staying grounded", how about signing a deal for a 6x pay raise and not hold out for a 9x raise and get injured. 

Guarantee more than just the first year of the extension like every other team in the league does, and I'd bet Bates would already have signed his name on the contract. Very little reason to believe that this holdup is about the total amount of the contract package, as Cincinnati has shown themselves recently to be on a par with the rest of the league in that aspect. 

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I doubt he sits out the season. He'd need to show up before midseason to get credit for the year toward free agency. Otherwise Bengals could tag him again and he wouldn't get the automatic 20% raise that comes with a second tag. Though the odds of the Bengals tagging Bates in 2023 are pretty low unless it's a tag and trade situation. 

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Bummer.  I was hoping this train was heading towards a resolution...now it looks like its a derailment.  Can't really blame either side...just the nature of the business and diverging mutual interests/needs/priorities.

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1. Sounds like the Bengals offered him a 6 year contract, but only 17 million in the first year guaranteed. I'm actually surprised at the length as I'm not even sure he's earned that much confidence long-term (Dax may already be better). 

 

2. I would advise Bates not to play a game of chicken with Mike Brown. Carson learned this the hard way. He will not blink first. 

 

3. I would be fielding trade calls for Bates. The price: a 2023 2nd and 4th rd pick. The team doesn't need the distraction and can use the money for Burrow, Higgins, and Wilson anyway.

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