Sink or Swim: RGIII, Bradford, Cutler, Dalton

[JBandJoeyV]

 

This is it. Why rush to pay a giant question mark. 

 

 

Simple math terms. Lets say the average qb is a 5. Lets just say Dalton is a 5. Bengals have a very good reason to think he is just a few small improvements (consistency, limiting turnovers, and performance in big games) away from being about an 8 caliber.

 

Hypothetically, you could sign him right now at the level of a 6.5. Is there a risk by signing him now at the level of a 6.5 when hes only currently a 5? Of course. Is there a risk of not signing him now, him turning into the 8 you think he will? Yes because you risk either a) having to pay him like a 9 or 10 or b) he walks because you arent willing to pay him what he wants and he wants to test out free agency knowing he can get paid like a 9 or 10 after playing like an 8.

 

 

Now a few big questions. 1. Do they think Dalton could easily become an 8 or better? If not, what do they think he could fairly reasonably turn into? 2. Would dalton be willing to take a 6.5ish deal now?

 

 

I know this is pretty simplistic terms, but it definitely explains both sides of the argument. It explains the risk of signing him now and the risk of not signing him now.

[Rumble In the Jungle]

 

 

Simple math terms. Lets say the average qb is a 5. Lets just say Dalton is a 5. Bengals have a very good reason to think he is just a few small improvements (consistency, limiting turnovers, and performance in big games) away from being about an 8 caliber.

 

Hypothetically, you could sign him right now at the level of a 6.5. Is there a risk by signing him now at the level of a 6.5 when hes only currently a 5? Of course. Is there a risk of not signing him now, him turning into the 8 you think he will? Yes because you risk either a) having to pay him like a 9 or 10 or B) he walks because you arent willing to pay him what he wants and he wants to test out free agency knowing he can get paid like a 9 or 10 after playing like an 8.

 

 

Now a few big questions. 1. Do they think Dalton could easily become an 8 or better? If not, what do they think he could fairly reasonably turn into? 2. Would dalton be willing to take a 6.5ish deal now?

 

 

I know this is pretty simplistic terms, but it definitely explains both sides of the argument. It explains the risk of signing him now and the risk of not signing him now.

 

Couldn't the Bengals do it towards the end of the season or maybe right after he wins his first playoff game like we did Carson the one year. Didn't we give him the richest QB contract during the year and not after?

[JBandJoeyV]

 

Couldn't the Bengals do it towards the end of the season or maybe right after he wins his first playoff game like we did Carson the one year. Didn't we give him the richest QB contract during the year and not after?

 

Every accomplishment dalton has this year, his prices goes up though. If he wins a playoff game like you suggest, hes got that monkey off his back. Hes also then due to become a free agent in 2 months. What leverage do the bengals have at that point? Dalton is going to expect to get paid a top 5 deal most likely. He'll have accomplished (in this hypothetical situation) something very very few QBs have ever done, and shown he can win in the playoffs. The bengals will be forced to pay him huge money.

Dont get me wrong im not saying that will for sure happen, but it could and the bengals might feel its fairly likely to happen. Thats the risk behind letting him play the year out. Im not saying im against it happening, but its not as simple as weston made it seem in his post and you in yours.

 

 

Right now the bengals have leverage. That leverage is that he is only under contract this year for like 1.5 million. The other leverage is that he hasnt proven he can win in the playoffs, hasnt proven he is elite, etc. So that would be the reason to get him under contract now, before he proves those other things and we have no leverage.

[Rumble In the Jungle]

Like you said though, it isn't guaranteed that he keeps getting into the Playoffs. I mean the one year we were bad ass with Carson then the next we go 4-12! That kind of stuff could happen and if they pay him big money and we end up with the likes of a Tony Romo then I'd feel we're being held hostage by our QB. If he kicks ass this year then he deserves that big contract just like Geno and the one AJ and Vontaze are going to get. 

[membengal]

Frankly, I don't care how much it costs extra if they wait. The bigger issue for me is if they spend it, and he doesn't get over the hump.

 

I ilke him, I like what he has done so far, but it's not enough to make me comfortable with extending him now, not with where he still has to improve. If he takes that step, awesome, go ahead and pay him then, and if it costs a few extra dollars for waiting, so be it. 

[|kennethmw|]

Frankly, this is another meaningless discussion.  The people for paying Andy now, have entrenched views, and the Dalton Doubters definitely have theirs.  The team will soon decide.

[sparky151]

 

Every accomplishment dalton has this year, his prices goes up though. If he wins a playoff game like you suggest, hes got that monkey off his back. Hes also then due to become a free agent in 2 months. What leverage do the bengals have at that point? Dalton is going to expect to get paid a top 5 deal most likely. He'll have accomplished (in this hypothetical situation) something very very few QBs have ever done, and shown he can win in the playoffs. The bengals will be forced to pay him huge money.

Dont get me wrong im not saying that will for sure happen, but it could and the bengals might feel its fairly likely to happen. Thats the risk behind letting him play the year out. Im not saying im against it happening, but its not as simple as weston made it seem in his post and you in yours.

 

 

Right now the bengals have leverage. That leverage is that he is only under contract this year for like 1.5 million. The other leverage is that he hasnt proven he can win in the playoffs, hasnt proven he is elite, etc. So that would be the reason to get him under contract now, before he proves those other things and we have no leverage.

 

Dalton doesn't have much leverage unless he has a good season and good postseason. If he does the team will want to pay him and can tag him if need be. The tag next year will probably be around 18 mil. So if he's asking for 15 mil per year on a long term deal, then let him play well first.

[MichaelWeston]

Id much rather overpay for a good QB then tether ourselves to a shitty one.  Wait a year and clear it up a bit.

[Le Tigre]

Frankly, this is another meaningless discussion.  The people for paying Andy now, have entrenched views, and the Dalton Doubters definitely have theirs.  The team will soon decide.

Dog chasing tail, wot?

[|High School Harry|]

Right now Andy Dalton is like an ugly prom date.

Pretty or not, we're stuck with him until this year's dance is through.

Make the best of it and get on with it later after you see if he puts out or not.

 

Sign him short term.

Groom the draft pick to take over short term if Andy leaves.

And look for a solid replacement in the draft perhaps as early

as next year.

[Jamie_B]

Frankly, I don't care how much it costs extra if they wait. The bigger issue for me is if they spend it, and he doesn't get over the hump.

 

I ilke him, I like what he has done so far, but it's not enough to make me comfortable with extending him now, not with where he still has to improve. If he takes that step, awesome, go ahead and pay him then, and if it costs a few extra dollars for waiting, so be it. 

 

 

This

[USN Bengal]

A serious question for all the people who are against Dalton getting extended...

 

Were you in favor of the Quitters extension when he received it?

 

Great numbers in the season, but never won a playoff game or made playoffs in consecutive years... I seem to remember most people were ecstatic with it.

[MichaelWeston]

A serious question for all the people who are against Dalton getting extended...

 

Were you in favor of the Quitters extension when he received it?

 

Great numbers in the season, but never won a playoff game or made playoffs in consecutive years... I seem to remember most people were ecstatic with it.

 

Carson Palmer had all the talent in the world to get better. Andy Dalton doesn't. There is a major difference here. Right or wrong there is an element here of projecting out future success based on ability. Dalton doesn't seem to many of us like he has a skill set to improve drastically.

[Khatmandude]

A serious question for all the people who are against Dalton getting extended...

 

Were you in favor of the Quitters extension when he received it?

 

Great numbers in the season, but never won a playoff game or made playoffs in consecutive years... I seem to remember most people were ecstatic with it.

 

I don't think Carson pre injury and Dalton are comparable at all.  Carson was a guy that could put the team on his back and win games whereas Dalton is nothing near that.  He needs everything around him to function properly and then and only then can he be successful, as history has shown and that his skillset confirms for the most part. 

 

With that in mind, as well as his impact being reduced in games per Hue, does that warrant a top contract?  Will it hinder the team's ability to sign other key players, who play a part in Dalton's success?   Can another QB provide similar production at a fraction of the cost that Dalton will command?   It's a balancing act IMO and a very sensitive one as it pertains to the QB position....the most visible and most important position on the field. 

 

Mike Brown will make the smart decision, that I trust......and I'll be OK with it either way because afterall, it's a football game we're talking about here.

[USN Bengal]

 

I don't think Carson pre injury and Dalton are comparable at all.  Carson was a guy that could put the team on his back and win games whereas Dalton is nothing near that.  He needs everything around him to function properly and then and only then can he be successful, as history has shown and that his skillset confirms for the most part. 

 

With that in mind, as well as his impact being reduced in games per Hue, does that warrant a top contract?  Will it hinder the team's ability to sign other key players, who play a part in Dalton's success?   Can another QB provide similar production at a fraction of the cost that Dalton will command?   It's a balancing act IMO and a very sensitive one as it pertains to the QB position....the most visible and most important position on the field. 

 

Mike Brown will make the smart decision, that I trust......and I'll be OK with it either way because afterall, it's a football game we're talking about here.

 

I guess I was in the minority on that one... considering that he received his extension in December of 2005 after only one full season of playing, I thought it was premature. While I also agree that Palmer had a higher ceiling, I do not think he could carry the team by himself... I remember a shitload of fumbles and pick 6's after the extension particularly.

 

I thought they should've waited with Palmer, because if you look at what has been produced on the field, Dalton has produced more than Palmer after 3 years. It just seems hypocritical to me that everyone is against Dalton (Ginger Curse) getting an extension when he has produced more in terms of getting us to the post season than Carson Palmer has in his entire career. Either way, he does NOT deserve top echelon money, and I don't want to see the Bengals go through another 20 year search for a serviceable QB.

 

I do agree that Mike Brown will not overpay him, and that's a damn good thing.

[Jamie_B]

 

I guess I was in the minority on that one... considering that he received his extension in December of 2005 after only one full season of playing, I thought it was premature. While I also agree that Palmer had a higher ceiling, I do not think he could carry the team by himself... I remember a shitload of fumbles and pick 6's after the extension particularly.

 

I thought they should've waited with Palmer, because if you look at what has been produced on the field, Dalton has produced more than Palmer after 3 years. It just seems hypocritical to me that everyone is against Dalton (Ginger Curse) getting an extension when he has produced more in terms of getting us to the post season than Carson Palmer has in his entire career. Either way, he does NOT deserve top echelon money, and I don't want to see the Bengals go through another 20 year search for a serviceable QB.

 

I do agree that Mike Brown will not overpay him, and that's a damn good thing.

 

 

Then you dont remember that Baltimore game.

 

Andy has never done anything remotely like that.

[scharm]

. The majority of qbs in the hall of fame are 80s rated qbs.


Just like dalton ;)


Being an 80s rated qb after 3 years shouldn't be considered a bad thing. Only someone with an agenda would think it is.

Come on JB you've said this a couple times referring to past QBs.

If you look at the careers of Hall of Fame QBs they probably played into their late 30s and maybe their overall career QB rating is in the 80s there is no doubt they have a cluster of years in which they were producing elite stats compared to their counterparts in the same era. In addition during those years those HOF QBs probably achieved top individual awards like MVPs, All-Pro etc. and also accumulated post season wins up to the Superbowl.

For example Ken Anderson - fringe HOF QB. 1979 had a 80 rating. That was good for top 5. Everyone knows that era of football was called the dead ball era that eventually spurned rule changes to make passing easier. Ken Anderson is a fringe HOF QB because of how he performed compared to his counterparts.

Being an 80 something rated QB is what it is. It's a fair description. Dalton finally put up some top 10 passing stats with top 10 attempts but also registered top 10 Ints as well. We know he had a great October follow by a thud in the months after. This is what most 80 something rated passers look like. There are times when Dalton has played very well and then very bad. Thus there is middle ground.

It is Dalton Defenders that have turned "80 something rated QB" and precieved it as a negative. In the end it's just reality of our QB.

[scharm]

A serious question for all the people who are against Dalton getting extended...
 
Were you in favor of the Quitters extension when he received it?
 
Great numbers in the season, but never won a playoff game or made playoffs in consecutive years... I seem to remember most people were ecstatic with it.

I was. At the time he just finished an incredible season and didn't have any post season games. Recieved luke warm consideration for MVP that year.

To be fully non bias his shot to win a playoff game was taken away with a cheap shot to his knee on his first attempt. I seem to remember most people considering the Bengals getting robbed in that game.

Overtime Palmer did us a small favor by getting us out from under that contract with his retirement talk.

[membengal]

A serious question for all the people who are against Dalton getting extended...

 

Were you in favor of the Quitters extension when he received it?

 

Great numbers in the season, but never won a playoff game or made playoffs in consecutive years... I seem to remember most people were ecstatic with it.

 

Fair question. I was then, and I am not in this case. Why the difference? Well, in part because I was all for Carson's extension when arguably he hadn't fully earned the trust, and look that where that got the team. I guess I am taking a lesson there. Let Dalton earn it by being great this year, not just good. Then go ahead and pay him. 

[|SF2|]

I did find it interesting that Dalton helped us get to the playoffs 3 straight years yet unless he wins a playoff game he sinks.  

 

The other 3 have much lower bars to clear in order to get a "swim" grade.  WTF has Bradford done?  He was the #1 overall pick and St. Louis hasn't even cracked the top 20 in offense while he has been there.  Andy, in one less year, has more TD passes and the same yards as Bradford

 

Not a Dalton Defender but it is odd that our 2nd round #35 pick  3 year QB is expected to do more than 2 guys who were the #1 overall pick and another who was the #11 overall pick.

[scharm]

 
Carson Palmer had all the talent in the world to get better. Andy Dalton doesn't. There is a major difference here. Right or wrong there is an element here of projecting out future success based on ability. Dalton doesn't seem to many of us like he has a skill set to improve drastically.

Carson Palmer probably the better physically gifted QB over Dalton. Bengals organization and fans rushed to give him "elite" status too quickly.

Looking back Palmer hit it at the same time his offensive mates were right in their prime.

[scharm]

I did find it interesting that Dalton helped us get to the playoffs 3 straight years yet unless he wins a playoff game he sinks.  
 
The other 3 have much lower bars to clear in order to get a "swim" grade.  WTF has Bradford done?  He was the #1 overall pick and St. Louis hasn't even cracked the top 20 in offense while he has been there.  Andy, in one less year, has more TD passes and the same yards as Bradford
 
Not a Dalton Defender but it is odd that our 2nd round #35 pick  3 year QB is expected to do more than 2 guys who were the #1 overall pick and another who was the #11 overall pick.

I don't think it was done to be fair. Just tailored to each QBs situation. That is the hurdle Dalton must pass. In a larger sense that is the hurdle the entire franchise must pass.

Is it fair to anyone in Paul Brown Stadium to have 4 out of 5 playoffs season not fully respected because each have been 1 and done? Don't know.

[JBandJoeyV]

For the record, I am in the boat of make him play the year out unless you can get him under a pretty team friendly deal with an out or two.

With that being said it's naive to think there is no risk to doing that. The people saying essentially "there is no reason at all to pay him now" aren't even close to correct. Although that's a small few.

The one saying they don't want to get stuck with a shitty qb, well I'll just let that one be...whether you think dalton is great is definitely debatable but thinking he is shitty is just dumb.

[Khatmandude]

I did find it interesting that Dalton helped us get to the playoffs 3 straight years yet unless he wins a playoff game he sinks.  

 

The other 3 have much lower bars to clear in order to get a "swim" grade.  WTF has Bradford done?  He was the #1 overall pick and St. Louis hasn't even cracked the top 20 in offense while he has been there.  Andy, in one less year, has more TD passes and the same yards as Bradford

 

Not a Dalton Defender but it is odd that our 2nd round #35 pick  3 year QB is expected to do more than 2 guys who were the #1 overall pick and another who was the #11 overall pick.

 

Does Sam Bradford have an AJ Green that takes up double coverage?  What about an offensive line that keeps him upright a large majority of the time?  Are his injuries a factor?  Injuries due to having a horrible OLine?  Did Bradford avg 37 passes/game last year? 

 

Comparing QBs is pointless unless they're both being compared after having played with the same cast and coached by same OC.   Which obviously doesn't happen.  There are too many variables at play to be able to compare 2 different quarterbacks in 2 totally different situations.  

 

And he's expected to do more because of the pieces in place around him......just like Kaepernick is expected to do more....because SF is better than the Rams as a team, as a whole.  

[membengal]

For the record, I am in the boat of make him play the year out unless you can get him under a pretty team friendly deal with an out or two.

With that being said it's naive to think there is no risk to doing that. The people saying essentially "there is no reason at all to pay him now" aren't even close to correct. Although that's a small few.

The one saying they don't want to get stuck with a shitty qb, well I'll just let that one be...whether you think dalton is great is definitely debatable but thinking he is shitty is just dumb.

 

Spot on.

 

And I acknowledge the risk in waiting (which is what I am advocating for). But I would definitely make him take the next step before paying him, even if costs more down the road.